Super 6 predictions and correct score tips: Reds redemption

For every round of Super 6, Ninad Barbadikar (@NinadB_06) and James Cantrill (@JimmyThePunt) use expected goals (xG) data to assess the match-ups and make their correct score predictions.


Round 38 predictions

  • Man City 3-1 Brentford
  • Inter 2-0 Atletico
  • Southampton 4-2 Hull
  • Liverpool 2-0 Luton
  • Porto 0-3 Arsenal
  • Napoli 2-3 Barcelona

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Reds redemption

Liverpool are in the driving seat for the Premier League title but could only be one point clear by the time their game with Luton kicks off on Wednesday evening.

The Reds are heavy favourites to beat Premier League new-boys Luton and with good reason.

Jurgen Klopp’s side have lost the fewest games in the division (2), none of which have come at Anfield where they have taken 32 points from the 36 available.

That is not to say this will be a cake walk. Klopp could be without nine key players as Curtis Jones, Diogo Jota and Darwin Nunez were all withdrawn with injury concerns during the win over Brentford on Saturday.


Luton have proved to be a tough nut to crack for the division's biggest and best sides as well.

The Hatters shared the spoils in an eight-goal thriller at St James’ Park recently, and they were a little unfortunate to lose 2-1 against Manchester United on Sunday.

This was the seventh time in eight matches against the ‘big six’ that Luton have lost by a margin of a goal or got a result, the reverse of this fixture ending 1-1 at Kenilworth Road in November.

With the return of Mohammed Salah, the hosts should have enough to edge what could be a tight affair in Merseyside.

Score prediction: Liverpool 2-0 Luton (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

Gunners got goals

Mikel Arteta's Arsenal have found their goal-scoring boots again, with an average of 4.2 goals scored in the last five games, including a 5-0 thumping of Burnley in their most recent game. They are looking stronger with each passing week.

Their record away from home in the Champions League this term and last has been less than impressive, losing 2-1 to Lens and only drawing with Sevilla. They have been in red-hot form though and with the first-choice starting XI mostly all available, the Gunners will be raring to get goals again.

Bukayo Saka celebrates a goal against Burnley
Bukayo Saka and co. are back to their goalscoring best.

Their Portuguese opponents are currently sitting third in the Primeira Liga, with one loss and one draw in their last five.

They only kept one clean sheet in the group stages, finishing with a chaotic 5-3 win over Shakhtar Donetsk at home. The Gunners have hit top form at the right moment and will likely have too much for Sérgio Conceição's team.

Score prediction: Porto 0-3 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)

Count on the Catalans

Barcelona's form since the start of the new year has been a mixed bag. Losses to Athletic Club and Villareal preceded their recent four-match unbeaten run including a draw, 3-3 with Granada.

The happy reunion between Xavi and the Catalans is set to conclude at the end of the year and the Champions League is their last opportunity to give the fans something to cheer about given that the title race has almost certainly slipped from their grasp now.

Despite all that, the goals have been flowing, somehow, and will likely do so against Napoli too.

Barcelona boss Xavi Hernandez
Xavi's Barcelona have lost their shine this season.

Last season's Scudetto holders have fallen off horribly this term and find themselves ninth in the Serie A standings. Of their eight competitive fixtures so far in 2024, they have won only three, most importantly losing the Supercoppa Italiana final to Inter.

Walter Mazzarri has been entrusted to steer them towards a European finish but that looks unlikely with all the inconsistencies in performances and results.

These teams last met in the playoff round of the 2021-22 Europa League, with Barcelona winning 4-2 then. Expect a similar kind of result this time around too.

Score prediction: Napoli 2-3 Barcelona (Sky Bet odds: 20/1)

Buzz off Brentford

Brentford head to the Etihad in the Premier League on Tuesday for their second game against the treble winners this year, three days after they were thumped 4-1 by Liverpool, a tough run of fixtures for the Bees.

Thomas Frank’s side languish 14th, closer to the drop then the top half and though Ivan Toney’s return has seen an uptick in form, at 14/1, the chances of an away result at the Etihad are slim.

It is a bad time to face City.

Erling Haaland (left) and Kevin De Bruyne (right)

Pep Guardiola’s side recently welcomed back Erling Haaland and Kevin De Bruyne. Tuesday’s hosts also dropped two points at the weekend, the 1-1 draw with Chelsea seeing them fall four points behind leaders Liverpool albeit with a game in hand.

City will be doubly keen to make amends following Saturday’s draw and should get three points but Brentford certainly have enough firepower to bloody the nose of the hosts.

Score prediction: Manchester City 3-1 Brentford (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)

Nerazzurri to keep going

Simone Inzaghi's Inter have picked up where they left off from last season, on a roll in the league and looking strong contenders for a deep run in the Champions League once again.

The Nerazzurri haven't lost a competitive fixture since their Coppa Italia exit to Bologna, but even before that, you would have to go all the way back to the end of September for their last defeat in the league, 2-1 at home to Sassuolo.

With four goals scored in each of their last two league games, they are a force to be reckoned with.

Thuram and Martinez have been on fire as a pair this term.
Thuram and Martinez have been on fire as a pair this term.

Despite finishing top of an easy group in the Champions League, Atletico's domestic form has been a point of concern this term. Two defeats did dent their momentum but a 5-0 hammering of Las Palmas was the perfect way to respond.

Diego Simeone's side have come up short in the big games, losing to Barcelona, Athletic Club as well as Girona. Title aspirations look beyond their abilities at this point.

History doesn't favour them in away ties against Italian sides and given Inter's most recent loss in the Champions League was last season's final, all signs point to a home win here.

Score prediction: Inter 2-0 Atletico Madrid (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)

Saints to tame Tigers

Victory against Hull on Tuesday would move Southampton back into second place in the Sky Bet Championship.

The Saints' 25-game unbeaten run ended last week but Russell Martin’s side responded in the perfect fashion with a win at the Hawthorns to become just the third side to beat West Brom on their own patch in the Sky Bet Championship this term.

Having shipped six goals across the previous two games, Martin will have been pleased with the clean sheet on Friday but keeping this Hull side at bay may prove difficult.

Southampton boss Russell Martin

The Tigers have only failed to net in one of their 10 games since Boxing Day and bolstered their attacking ranks with the acquisition of Fabio Carvalho from Liverpool in the January window.

The midfielder has already netted for his new side and slots into an attacking trio along with Jaden Philogene. Having missed most of December, Hull’s creator-in-chief returned at the start of February and has scored twice in his last four appearances, taking him to 13 goals and assists this season.

It is hard to make a case against the hosts here but I do expect goals at both ends.

Score prediction: Southampton 4-2 Hull (Sky Bet odds: 33/1)

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