Football betting tips: Tyne-Wear derby
2pts Sunderland (Draw No Bet) at 11/8 (Sky Bet)
1pt Dan Burn to be shown a card at 31/10 (BetVictor)
1pt Enzo Le Fee to be shown a card at 15/4 (Betway)
For a second week in succession, the traditional 16:30 Super Sunday slot is occupied by a game (Brentford vs Leeds) that doesn't really live up to its billing.
While a hectic fixture list offered a possible explanation for last weekend's scheduling, seven days on we needn't speculate over why the match Sky Sports would much prefer to broadcast at peak time has been dragged forward to late lunch - it provides two-and-half fewer hours for Sunderland and Newcastle supporters to get tanked up for their first league meeting in a decade.
Fans' long thirst for a Tyne-Wear derby was temporarily quenched two years ago, with a 3-0 away win for the Champions League-contesting Magpies over the mid-table Championship Mackems. How times have changed; for one club anyway.
That victory for Eddie Howe's side ended a nine-match winless streak for Newcastle in this fixture, with Sunderland winning six of those. It's not since August 2011 that the club from Tyneside emerged with three points from this league fixture.
Given that context, and the fact newly-promoted SUNDERLAND are having a generationally good season under Regis Le Bris, sitting ninth in the Premier League table, three points off the top four after 15 matches and unbeaten at home, to see them priced as 23/10 outsiders is surprising.
They can be backed at 11/8 with Sky Bet in the DRAW NO BET market, worthwhile given what's at stake.
Defensively Newcastle have really struggled this season. Since starting with five clean sheets in their opening seven top-flight matches they haven't keep a single one. In all competitions it's just one in nine matches. At the other end they've scored in 17 successive games.
Sunderland's only clean sheet in their last nine came against hapless Wolves.
It's remarkable, though, how often derbies follow their own set of rules, counter to what the form book suggests.
With players more concerned about avoiding errors rather than playing uninhibited these are often tight, low-scoring affairs. Both teams to score 'no' has been a winner in six of the last eight Tyne-Wear derbies, with under 2.5 goals landing in three of the last four league meetings.
At top prices of 11/10 and 10/11 respectively there just isn't enough there for me however, but I'm not expecting the net to bulge.
Unsurprisingly the PLAYER CARD markets have been cut in much shorter than usual.
With three of the last four derbies seeing at least six (6,2,7,8) the 6/5 about over 5.5 cards isn't the worst bet in the world. Instead though, finding players who seem to have avoided the harsh pricing treatment feels a better angle with DAN BURN's 31/10 price worth taking.
He has five yellows and a red (from two further bookings) in 21 appearances this season and is a local, Newcastle-supporting lad. Perfect.
On the Wear side (see what I did there) ENZO LE FEE can be backed at 15/4.
After a sedate start to the season by his own standards, the Frenchman has gone in the book twice in seven games, away at Liverpool and Chelsea.
Averaging 2.77 tackles and 1.04 fouls committed per 90, as well as 4.59 recoveries, the attacking midfielder is a huge part of Sunderland's aggressive pressing.
Score prediction: Sunderland 1-0 Newcastle
Odds correct at 1200 GMT (12/12/25)
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