Sunderland or Middlesbrough: Who has the best chance of promotion?
@GabSutton is a football expert who specialises in the Sky Bet EFL
Published before Sunderland 0-4 Middlesbrough
With transitional periods in store for relegated clubs Southampton and Leeds, as well as uncertainty over whether the likes of Coventry, Blackburn and Millwall would replicate last season’s challenges, Sunderland and Middlesbrough sensed an opportunity this season.
Both have young, exciting squads that will only get better, but while the Black Cats are thus far delivering on that promise with 19 points from their first 10 games, Boro took eight games to record their first victory.
However, three more have followed in successive games in all competitions to suggest the Teessiders may very well be joining their Wearside neighbours in the Sky Bet Championship play-off conversation again come May.
But who is better placed to do so? Short answer: Sunderland.
Boro hit hard by departures
Both teams' runs to a top-six finish last term were heavily built on strong loan signings, but Boro were by far the more reliant.
They had to replace five key players from last season – 29-goal man Chuba Akpom, plus loan stars Ryan Giles, Aaron Ramsey, Cameron Archer and goalkeeper Zach Steffen – so a slow start should really have come as no real surprise.
Rather than being able to build on last season's template, with the synergy of the best XI still largely in place, Boro have had to replace as much of that quality as they could and then stretch to get back to their 22/23 levels, let alone raise the standards further and challenge for the top two.
The five-point and 11-place gap to the play-offs will soon close, but that feels like the limit of Middlesbrough's ambitions.
Signs of progress
And that would feel like a successful season for Carrick's side, whose three successive league wins over Southampton, Watford and Cardiff have not only been progress in terms of results, but also performances.
Lukas Engel was outstanding against Watford, overcoming confidence issues that plagued his start to life on Teesside to score the opener – if the Dane keeps up those levels, then Boro fans who loved Giles at left-back last season will soon be loving Engel instead.
Earlier in the season, Boro had struggled to break down the likes of Huddersfield and QPR, who had come to the Riverside intending to sit in and frustrate, so while the showing against a Cardiff team with the same gameplan wasn’t as rampant as some of those last season, it does suggest steady improvement.
Fine tuning from Carrick
Initially, Middlesbrough had plenty of individual creativity in their side thanks to the signings of Sammy Silvera and Morgan Rogers.
But not only were they wasteful in front of goal, the duo left Boro too easy to carve open, because they weren’t aggressive enough against the ball and didn’t track runners often enough.
More recently, they’ve become more ruthless in front of goal and tightened up at the other, so Carrick will feel a formula is now in place focused around Josh Coburn's strong hold-up play and Latte Lath's pace and movement.
Although the Ivorian’s finishing has left something to be desired at times, he has been a constant threat and managed three goals already, behind only Riley McGree’s five.
McGree and Greenwood key
McGree has been huge for Boro so far this season with his energy and direct running ability.
With Akpom, Archer and Giles no longer at the Riverside, he has taken on more responsibility, providing seven direct goal contributions already.
Sam Greenwood has shown promise since joining on loan from Leeds, with bright substitute appearances followed by a convincing first start against Cardiff.
As expected for someone still getting up to speed, not everything came off for him, but he always had the bravery to try and make things happen, drag opponents away and create space for his teammates, taking on a similar role to Ramsey’s last season.
With several players now coming into form, and details both against the ball and in front of goal fine-tuned, Middlesbrough are certainly a team to watch.
But not quite as much as Sunderland...
Sunderland loan reliance overplayed
In the Black Cats' case, there is little reason to believe they will not be in the top two conversation.
Although they had one brilliant loan star in Manchester United's Amad Diallo last term, if you scratch beneath the surface they weren’t quite so reliant on loanees.
Édouard Michut did well in midfield, but was often second fiddle to Dan Neil or Corry Evans.
Joe Gelhardt ended up as an out-and-out striker – a role he wasn’t initially brought in for – because of injuries to fellow loanee Ellis Simms, plus Ross Stewart, who missed the second half of last season through injury.
All three have left but a club can’t miss strikers they barely had in the first place. Four were brought in this summer: Luís Semedo from Benfica, Eliezer Mayenda from Sochaux, Nazariy Rusyn from Zorya Luhansk, and Mason Burstow on loan from Chelsea.
Consistency coming
And after a dominant Friday win at beleaguered Sheffield Wednesday, Sunderland corrected their mixed home form with a 2-0 victory over Watford.
Jobe Bellingham and Niall Huggins are starting to look bigger players for Sunderland than might have been imagined before the season, and now they’ve proved they can win games without playing scintillating football, finding an efficiency they arguably missed last season.
Take Abdoullah Ba, for instance: he’s produced technically stronger performances than the one against Watford in midweek, but was relentlessly hardworking throughout, and always wanted the ball, getting his rewards with his second-half strike that settled the match.
Ba has added another layer of intelligence to his game this season, and while still not yet the complete package, he’s giving opposing teams something different to think about, taking attentions away from go-to big-hitters Jack Clarke and Patrick Roberts.
Reliable Mowbray
Led by one of the best and most reliable managers in the Championship, Sunderland have an exciting young team that will only get better.
Mowbray’s side would have pushed Sheffield United for an automatic promotion spot last season were they stronger up top, so the additions are a huge plus.
Avoid key defensive injuries, hope Ipswich fail to maintain their current consistency and Sunderland could be this season's surprise package.
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