Free Premier League football betting tips: Aston Villa v Southampton, Newcastle v Everton, Tottenham v Brighton
Away from the headline Super Sunday clash, Aston Villa host Southampton, Newcastle play Everton and Spurs face Brighton - we have best bets for each.
Recommended bets
1pt Matty Cash to make 4+ tackles in Villa v Southampton at 9/4
1pt Everton 6+ shots on target v Newcastle at 5/4
1pt Allan to make 4+ tackles in Newcastle v Everton at 6/5
1pt Ben White to be shown a card in Tottenham v Brighton at 5/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Aston Villa v Southampton
Joe Townsend
- 12:00 GMT on Sky Sports Box Office
- Match odds: Home 7/5 | Draw 13/5 | Away 7/4
I like the look of this match-up with Aston Villa no doubt keen to quickly move on from their thrashing by Leeds last time out, and Southampton aiming to continue a strong run of results.
Before they were taken apart by Marcelo Bielsa's side, Villa were being showered with praise following an impeccable start to the campaign that had seen them concede only twice and thump seven goals past Liverpool en route to four straight wins.
Southampton, like Villa, have strong form stretching back to last season though unlike Dean Smith's side they were slow to get going this term. But their ending of Everton's unbeaten start in impressive fashion made it 10 points from a possible 12 and showed that Ralph Hasenhuttl's men are well and truly back.
During what has, until recently, been a Premier League campaign of unprecedented goal-scoring, this duo have bucked the trend by managing to keep a combined six clean sheets in 11 top-flight games.
It's rare that Saints don't score, but this match isn't one I fancy to have many goals in it. That being said, a meeting between an in-form team and one trounced in their last outing after a flying start offers too much uncertainty for me, so I'm looking elsewhere for a reliable bet.
Matty Cash, I believe, is our man to deliver exactly that. Villa's £16m summer signing from Nottingham Forest won 84 tackles in the Sky Bet Championship last season, 10 more than any other player in the division.
He's made seven, four and five in very different contests with Fulham, Leicester and Leeds this term - against Sheffield United, who were a man down for 75 minutes, and in Villa's freak 7-2 win over Liverpool he made only one, but those circumstances were exceptional.
Southampton's fluid forward line and tendency to push their own full-backs high means that opposition defenders often find themselves very busy in the wide areas; right-backs Ben Godfrey (3), Cesar Azpilicueta (4) and Dara O'Shea (5) will attest to that in recent weeks.
Backing Cash to make 4+ tackles at 9/4 feels like the smart play in a match that really does feel like it could go in any direction.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 1-1 Southampton (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Best bet: Matty Cash to make 4+ tackles at 9/4
Newcastle v Everton
Michael Beardmore
- 14:00 GMT on Sky Sports Premier League
- Match odds: Home 14/5 | Draw 9/2 | Away 19/20
Everton could well be bidding to regain top spot when they visit St James’ Park, given the two sides immediately below them, Liverpool and Aston Villa, will have already played.
Carlo Ancelotti’s side saw their unbeaten start to the campaign end abruptly with a surprisingly abject 2-0 defeat at Southampton last Sunday. A trip to maddeningly inconsistent Newcastle would seem to offer a decent opportunity to get back on track against one of the Premier League’s most beleaguered backlines.
Impressive in victories against West Ham and Burnley, the Magpies have otherwise struggled and are a couple of points better off than perhaps they should be. Late goals have pinched points despite being outplayed by Wolves and Tottenham, particularly at Spurs where Callum Wilson’s stoppage-time penalty was tantamount to daylight robbery.
They conceded a huge 19 shots (12 on target) in that 1-1 draw in north London but surpassed even that figure a fortnight ago as Manchester United fired in 20 efforts (14 on target) on their way to a 4-1 win. Newcastle’s average of 17 shots conceded per game is comfortably the Premier League’s highest so it’s no surprise they also top the xGA (expected Goals Against) stats.
So far, their defensive deficiencies have been somewhat masked by the excellent form of goalkeeper Karl Darlow – the top-flight stopper with the most saves this term – but that can only last so long. And it’s against the division’s better teams where their rearguard has been peppered, which is why backing 6+ Everton shots on target seems a plausible play.
Newcastle’s penchant for achieving a result despite not necessarily deserving one makes it difficult to back an outright Everton win, even though I think they will bounce back here and do just that.
The value is to be found in the Everton shots on target market – and if you fancy them to match Spurs and United, you can get 16/1 on 10+ efforts. That’s worth a flutter at long odds, but I advise taking 6+ Everton shots on target at 5/4 with Sky Bet, which looks decent value, particularly given 5+ is a stingy 4/6. That’s quite a jump for one extra shot.
Everton have averaged just under five shots on target per game, so it’s reasonable to expect them to improve on that against the leaky Toon.
The arrival of Brazil midfielder Allan from Napoli, where he played under Ancelotti, has given the Everton midfield some much-needed bite this season. It was a position they were sorely lacking in last term and the 29-year-old has quickly made his mark.
He leads the Premier League in tackles per game, having made 20 in five fixtures. That’s an average of four per game, and only once has he failed to hit that number.
So odds of 6/5 on him making 4+ tackles must be gobbled up against a Newcastle team featuring the likes of Allan Saint-Maximin, Jacob Murphy and Ryan Fraser, who all love to carry the ball.
Score prediction: Newcastle United 1-2 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Best bets:
Manchester United v Arsenal
- 16:30 GMT on Sky Sports Premier League
- Match Odds: Home 21/20 | Draw 13/5 | Away 12/5
Suspicion suggests Arsenal will approach this encounter in a similar way to their trips to Anfield and The Etihad, thus denying United the opportunity to counter-attack. And with that in mind, we might not be in for the anticipated market expectation for a thrill-a-minute affair, and instead opposing goals could be the smart selection at Old Trafford.
United displayed a level of caution against Chelsea, while Arsenal are just too functional, without a leading playmaker, and slow-paced to fall into the trap of an end-to-end thriller. The Gunners’ games feature the fewest shots from inside the penalty area in the Premier League this term and so under 2.5 goals is preferred at the prices (23/20).
Man Utd are fair and firm favourites to succeed – understandably after their standout triumphs of the past fortnight – with Arsenal winless at Big Six clubs in 28 games since 2015. But there’s little margin of value in the odds on offer so I’ll focus my attention on a low-scoring showdown from Old Trafford. I’d be surprised if this fixture catches fire.
Score prediction: Manchester United 1-1 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Best bet: 2pts under 2.5 goals at 23/20
Read Mark O'Haire's Super Sunday preview in full
Tottenham v Brighton
Tom Carnduff
- 19:15 GMT on Sky Sports Box Office
- Match odds: Home 3/5 | Draw 16/5 | Away 4/1
Sunday rounds off with Tottenham welcoming a Brighton side who are struggling to secure victories on a regular basis under Graham Potter. The Seagulls enjoy possession but their main issue has been converting that into goals and ultimately points.
They will need to be at their defensive best when they travel to Spurs. Goals have been almost non-stop for Jose Mourinho's men and they are unbeaten in their ten games in all competitions since a 1-0 defeat to Everton on opening day.
Tottenham's 3/5 price for victory is right considering the contrasting form but the better value comes in the tackles market and targeting Brighton's Ben White. The central defender has been attracting interest from top Premier League clubs but he has seen a switch in position in recent weeks.
His ability on the ball now sees him operate in the midfield and the performances he has put in, combined with the number of centre-back options available to Potter, should see him remain there. Since that switch, his tackle count has shot up with four in both contests against Crystal Palace and West Brom.
White has certainly been more involved. The tackle count demonstrates that but the West Brom game also saw his personal season-high for interceptions and fouls. It got to a point where he could perhaps have counted himself lucky not to have been shown a card.
He had only seen three fouls across his four games in defence but there were three while playing in midfield last time out. Potter shouldn't view that as a problem which means he has to drop into the back line again but it is one that will eventually see his card tally rack up.
The 23-year-old saw six yellow cards while at Leeds, where he played the large majority of the season at centre-back, but he should exceed that tally if he posts similar numbers to the one on Monday. Brighton's 13.7 fouls per game is the highest in the Premier League. Tottenham sit second with 13.2 so it could become a game that runs up a high card count.
At 5/1, it's worth backing White to go into the referee's book. The tackles prices should be considered as well with 3+ at 5/4 and 4+ at 3/1. However, given Tottenham's ability to break forward with pace and their tough midfield, the card price provides more appeal in a game that the home side can edge.
Score prediction: Tottenham 1-0 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Best bet: Ben White to be shown a card at 5/1
Odds correct at 1500 GMT (29/10/20)
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