Ten points from 29 games: Arsenal's record at the big six examined ahead of Manchester United trip
Ten points from 29 games. It is the sort of run that would seem to threaten Derby’s unwanted record of 11 points in a Premier League season. It is actually Arsenal’s return in away league games against the rest of the big six.
Their last win came in January 2015, when Mikel Arteta was their injured club captain as Santi Cazorla and Francis Coquelin combined to great effect in midfield in a 2-0 victory at the Etihad Stadium. Since then, Crystal Palace have taken three points at Anfield three times, Old Trafford and Stamford Bridge twice and the Etihad once (plus the Emirates) while Arsenal’s journeys have been rather less profitable.
Arteta’s reign has contained signs of progress. Arsenal have overcome City, Chelsea and Liverpool at Wembley, won a League Cup penalty shootout at Anfield and beaten Wolves, then in the top six, at Molineux. Rewind to 2015, though, and Arsene Wenger’s Gunners won 5-2 at Leicester in the season the Foxes went on to win the division. But league wins at Chelsea, Tottenham, Liverpool and the Manchester clubs have continued to prove elusive.
In one respect, Arteta is further away than his predecessors. He has a solitary point in five games, a laudable 2-2 draw at Chelsea when down to 10 men for 64 minutes. Four subsequent matches have been defeats. His return of 0.2 points per game compares unfavourably with Unai Emery’s 0.42 and Wenger’s 0.35. Arsenal have scored fewer under Arteta (0.8) than Wenger (1.0) and Emery (1.28). Where improvement is apparent is in the defensive record: Arsenal let in 2.57 games per game under Emery; it is only 2.2 under Arteta, just above the 2.11 under Wenger.
It is perhaps worth breaking the Frenchman’s final three years into two spells. Following that 2-0 win over Manchester City, Arsenal were initially at least competitive on their travels, drawing five times in eight at the elite and scoring 12 times; while a couple of victories might have enabled them to truly challenge Leicester in the 2016 title race, perhaps the only really wretched result was a 3-2 loss to an injury-hit Manchester United.
Thereafter, however, a gulf opened up: Wenger’s last nine such games produced a solitary point – from a stalemate at Stamford Bridge, Arsenal’s lone clean sheet in those 29 matches – and his last six trips only yielded two goals. It suggests they hit rock bottom in 2018. Emery’s side started scoring again, but conceded at greater rates. Arteta has at least avoided his predecessors’ Anfield thrashings.
But those five games have produced 42 shots on target for Arsenal’s various opponents and just 12 for the Gunners. Those numbers reflect two early red cards for David Luiz as Arsenal played 105 minutes with 10 men. The overall figures, however, are of 88 shots to 33, including off-target efforts. Arsenal twice almost matched their opponents – 13 shots to 15 against Tottenham in July and 11 to 13 versus City this season. Even then, however, there is a difference in the calibre of chances: Tottenham ‘beat’ them 1.82 to 0.69 on xG and City by 1.43 to 0.84. Their 2-2 draw at Stamford Bridge came when Chelsea’s xG was 3.39 and Arsenal’s just 0.57.
Go by the quality of opportunities and Arteta’s side feel further away: Arsenal have nine victories of sorts away at the big six since 2015: they have ‘won’ nine games on expected goals; none were under Arteta. Indeed, Emery, who had a higher xG in three of his seven matches, may have a statistical case to call himself unlucky.
But, given Arsenal visit Manchester United this weekend, it is most notable where those ‘wins’ came: one each at Anfield and the Etihad under Wenger, two at Stamford Bridge and five at Old Trafford. Emery’s side twice created better chances than United; Wenger’s did in three of his last four visits. If Sunday provides a barometer of progress in one respect, in another, it is a question if Arteta can emulate his predecessors by out-creating United, even before outscoring them.
And xG has highlighted some of Arsenal’s shortcomings of late. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang was a matchwinner against City and Chelsea last season but his expected goals this season is just 0.52; against Liverpool and City in the league, it is 0.00. His finest exploits under Arteta have come at Wembley.
And it is games elsewhere that suggest Arsenal have turned a corner under Arteta. Include penalty shootout triumphs and they have six victories in 12 against the big six in all competitions, changing a direction of travel after Emery failed to win any of his last five at home, away or neutral venues.
But the broader picture has remained unchanged. In away league matches against their immediate rivals, with three points the prize and few rotated teams, Arsenal have gone 29 without a win. In the same time, Tottenham have four such victories, Chelsea five, Liverpool and United both eight and City 11. It has not been a big six as much as a big five.
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