Kostas Mitroglou: Back in the Greece squad

Sunday World Cup qualifier tips including Switzerland v Northern Ireland

19:37 · SUN November 12, 2017

Ben Coley thinks Switzerland will comfortably see off Northern Ireland in the second leg of their World Cup qualifier on Sunday.

Switzerland v Northern Ireland (Sunday, 1700 GMT)

The method of victory was wholly unfair, but there can be little doubt that Switzerland were far superior to Northern Ireland as they established a 1-0 lead on Thursday night.

Michael O'Neill's side looked slightly more threatening when behind, a position from which they will begin this second leg, but ultimately failed to conjure a single shot on target. Switzerland never looked like being punished for their own profligacy, having wasted numerous chances before and after Ricardo Rodriguez put them ahead via the penalty spot.

Penalty to Switzerland. A volley has hit a player on the arm and the ref points to the spot! The players can't believe it...😫 #NIRSUI #DreamBigger #GAWA
— Northern Ireland (@NorthernIreland) November 9, 2017

Northern Ireland are still in the tie and a sense of injustice may bring this side and their supporters even closer together, a factor which shouldn't be underestimated, but they concede a class edge to the Swiss, who pushed European champions Portugal all the way in their group and will rate potential dark horses if, as expected, sealing their World Cup place.

At home, Switzerland have been really impressive for some time now, winning all seven since their 2-1 defeat to a strong Belgium side last May. Most troubling is the fact that they score for fun, putting five past Hungary, a side Northern Ireland got to know in qualifying for Euro 2016, and never really looking like they might come unstuck.

Attacking prowess doesn't come at the cost of their defending, either. Hungary managed two, but the five Switzerland wins which surround that one all came without conceding, including against Portugal, and on the evidence of Thursday it's hard to see where Northern Ireland work their opportunities.

Having failed to score at Germany and the Czech Republic in their group - no disgrace, but evidence of their creativity issues - and with Switzerland so reliable in both defence and attack, odds-against about the hosts winning to nil looks really solid.

The biggest element of risk here is probably that the Swiss again waste chances but if that is the case, and the game remains goalless, they will have space to roam as the visitors come forward in search of their leveller.

It'll be disappointing from a punters' perspective if the hosts don't take this golden opportunity with both hands and I expect them to put the tie to bed fairly quickly.

Greece v Croatia (Sunday, 1945 GMT)

With Luka Modric, Ivan Perisic and Ivan Rakitic among their ranks, Croatia really shouldn't be in a play-off for a World Cup place.

That they are is down to a couple of poor performances in a group won by Iceland, plus a couple of late goals, but Thursday's 4-1 victory over a poor Greece outfit means that it's ultimately job done and they can begin to prepare for next summer.

Greece are nothing if they're not defending well and having gifted Croatia an early penalty, as well as their fourth, this tie is over. Greece managed to scrape to four goals in both meetings with Gibraltar, but it's borderline unthinkable that they'll manage the three they need as a minimum here.

They do have a good record of coming through these play-offs but never from such a position and Croatia are expected to cruise through to Russia 2018.

The key question for punters is whether to take odds-against about a side who were 2/5 prior to their first-leg romp. It could look a real gift.

Yet when last in a similar situation, albeit five years ago, Croatia followed a 3-0 victory away at Turkey with a 0-0 draw at home, and the risk that they are nowhere near fully engaged is enough to avoid temptation on this occasion.

🇭🇷💪 #iznadsvihhrvatska pic.twitter.com/qoOdvhqlUR
— Ivan Rakitic (@ivanrakitic) November 7, 2017

So many players in this Croatia squad will have an eye on some important domestic engagements, such as Nikola Kalinic, whose Milan side face Serie A leaders Napoli next Saturday in a game he won't want to miss.

Modric's Real Madrid are set to take on City rivals Atletico, and there has to be a possibility that the real stars among this super-talented squad are missing, be that in a literal sense or otherwise.

If we can't confidently establish that Croatia will be at full strength, there's really nowhere to go here. Greece are a poor side who thrive only when required to defend, and couldn't even manage that on Thursday. Croatia are a good side with no incentive. It's the epitome of a no-bet game.