Football betting tips: Nations League
Belgium vs Italy (19:45)
1.5pts Riccardo Calafiori 2+ total shots at 10/3 (bet365)
0.5pt Calafiori to score anytime at 18/1 (Sky Bet)
France vs Turkiye (19:45)
1pt Michael Olise to score and assist at 17/5 (bet365)
0.5pts Arder Guler to be carded at 15/4 (bet365)
Group 1
Heading into the final round of fixtures, Belgium, Italy and France all have a chance of topping Nations League A Group 1, and one of the nations won't make it to the quarter-finals next year.
The Italians came from behind to beat France 3-1 on Thursday to jump above Les Bleus on head-to-head record and now sit top of the pile heading into Sunday’s showdown with Belgium.
It means Roberto Mancini's side must match France’s result against Turkiye to win the group, but should they lose and France avoid defeat, they would drop to third and fail to qualify for the quarter-finals.
Sunday’s hosts Belgium know only a win will be good enough for them, and while they do have an outside chance of finish top, making the top two will be the goal, so they simply have to beat Italy. A point for France will be enough to see them qualify for the quarter-finals.
After losing all five of their games so far, Turkiye will finish bottom of the group and be relegated - but they could have a big say on the outcome of Group 1 should they beat France.
The top two will qualify for the quarter-finals regardless but the table toppers will get a potentially easier draw against a nation who finished second in their group. Plus, the second leg of the quarters - which take place in March - will be played on home turf.
So there’s the context, let's get into the betting.
Belgium vs Italy
- Kick-off: Sunday, 19:45 GMT
- TV: Amazon Prime
- Live odds, form and stats
At Arsenal, RICCARDO CALAFIORI goes where he wants when his side have the ball and this is reflected by his touch map, shot map and general offensive output.
The left back has scored once from an xG of 1.22 in the Premier League and is averaging over a shot per 90.
It’s a similar story in the Champions League. He made one appearance, had four shots, failing to score but generating 0.36 xG.
Anyway, Calafiori appears to play with similar freedom for Gli Azzurri. He’s scored once in four appearances and averaged 1.18 shots per 90.
It’s worth flagging all bar one of his shots in this competition have come from set pieces - but his dead ball dominance is a plus for the following angles.
You can back Calafiori at 10/3 with bet365 to have 2+ TOTAL SHOTS, a bet that landed in the reverse and six of his 14 starts for club and country this term. In fact, he’s had at least one attempt in 69% of his appearances.
At 18/1 with Sky Bet, I cannot resist a poke on his price TO SCORE ANYTIME either.
According to Fbref, Calafiori only has 11 career goals for club and country but seven have come across the last three seasons since moving to England so there’s clearly been a change in his attacking impetus.
France vs Turkiye
- Kick-off: Thursday, 19:45 GMT
- TV: Amazon Prime
- Live odds, form and stats
Kylian Mbappe missed the defeat in Milan on Thursday and is a doubt for this one.
Zinedine Zidane has a stacked squad at his disposal but - to state the obvious - Mbappe would be a miss, especially considering what is on the line here.
The likely hood is Mbappe does play and this will be a none event. The hosts are 1/4 on to win and 3/4 to score 3+ goals but it’s the frontman’s compatriot who appeals TO SCORE AND ASSIST.
MICHAEL OLISE is 17/5, he scored on Thursday meaning he has five goals and two assists in five appearances in this competition.
Michael Olise 🤩#NationsLeague pic.twitter.com/8MKEpSdHPp
— UEFA EURO (@UEFAEURO) November 12, 2026
While Turkiye have lost all five of their games, they were competitive in the 1-0 defeat when these nations met in September and have scored in three of their four games since.
So they could make a game of this and I am sure the visitors would love to scupper Les Bleus chances of qualification on Sunday.
Interestingly, the visitors have picked up at least two cards in every game with the trip to Belgium seeing eight cautions flashed and the reverse of this seeing five yellows and a red.
Chris Kavanagh has the whistle here and he has averaged just under five cards per game this season and dished out 5-5-2 cards in this competition.
If any red card markets become available, they’ll be worth considering as the reverse saw a sending off for Turkiye and France have since had a man sent off against Italy.
At 15/4, it’s ARDA GULER’s price TO BE CARDED getting a tout.
At club level, he’s only picked up five cautions in 115 appearances but something must happen to him when he represents the Crescent-Stars because for his country, he has got eight yellows in 36 appearances (0.27 cards per 90), which includes four across 10 Nations League appearances.
Odd correct at 16:00 GMT (13/11/26)
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