Football betting tips: Nations League
1.5pts Harry Kane to score anytime at 2/1 (General)
0.5pt Kane to score 2+ goals at 14/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Kane hat-trick at 80/1 (bet365)
1pt Kane 1+ assists at 10/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
England did just about enough against Croatia at Wembley to mean Sunday's clash in Madrid is winner takes all.
Unfortunately for the Three Lions, stakes aren't quite as high as they were two-and-a-half years ago in Berlin. Rather than playing for the right to be crowned European champions, it is for the dubious honour of being champions of Nations League Group A3.
I say dubious because Italy's impressive victory over France has blown the seeding wide open, meaning there is now the growing possibility of the reward for a group winner being a meeting with Zinedine Zidane's side in the quarter-finals (as well as one of Spain or England).
For Thomas Tuchel's men this remains an important match as they continue to move on from their World Cup disappointment.
Spain have now won 12 successive matches and are on a staggering 43-game unbeaten run in all competitions, with the only blemish a defeat on penalties by Portugal in the final of this competition 18 months ago.
It therefore makes absolute sense that the hosts are general 4/6 favourites. Luis de la Fuente's men have shown some weaknesses in this campaign, though, with their previously watertight defence keeping just one clean sheet in five matches.
Were England at full strength the 13/5 about them in the draw no bet market would be of real interest, but a defence unrecognisable from the World Cup - with Marc Guehi, Ezri Konsa, John Stones, Djed Spence and Nico O'Reilly all missing - looked especially clunky on Thursday.
While there could be a couple of changes to that backline there is still enough doubt to avoid the 1x2. Instead it makes sense to take the rare large prices about HARRY KANE.
The England captain scored from the spot on a night when he broke Peter Shilton's record of 125 appearances, an occasion made all the more special by him lifting the Ballon d'Or to supporters before kick-off.
It was his seventh goal in this season's Nations League and his 25th in 27 matches under Tuchel.
He is 2/1 TO SCORE ANYTIME, 14/1 TO SCORE 2+ GOALS and 80/1 for a HAT-TRICK, unheard of prices for a man with his record.
In six of the last 13 matches in which Kane has scored for his country he has done so multiple times. While it may seem a stretch to do so against the world and European champions, he was a missed penalty away from a brace in a thoroughly entertaining reverse fixture.
If this match is anything like September's five-goal thriller, and there is little reason to think it won't be, we could get a real run for our money.
ICE COLD ❄️
— ITV Football (@itvfootball) November 12, 2026
Morgan Rogers puts the Three Lions in front in the 24th minute 🙌#England #ThreeLions pic.twitter.com/lMCf51fP7F
While Kane didn't provide an ASSIST against Croatia, he once again showcased his blossoming skills as a creator by playing a wonderful diagonal ball to Jude Bellingham to create the opening for Morgan Rogers to score.
He has only assisted twice in 12 England appearances since the start of the World Cup but has been prolific for Bayern Munich this term, providing 11 in 13 games in the Bundesliga and Champions League - last term he provided just eight in 56 matches.
The 10/1 about KANE 1+ ASSISTS therefore looks far too big.
All told this means sticking with 50% of a staking plan that delivered four losers on Thursday, but at the hugely increased prices it would be daft not to stick with it. Even Kane's 13/2 price to score first is tempting, but with 2/1 anytime available there's no need to get greedy.
Odds correct at 11:30 GMT (13/11/26)
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