Southampton vs West Brom betting tips, BuildABet, best bets and preview
Football betting tips: Championship play-offs
2pts Kyle Bartley to have 1+ total shots at 5/4 (bet365)
1pt Kyle Bartley to have 2+ total shots at 7/1 (bet365)
BuildABet @ 60/1
- West Brom to win
- West Brom to score 2+ goals
- Kyle Bartley to score a header
Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Friday
TV channel: Sky Sports Football
Home 7/10 | Draw 14/5 | Away 19/5
Agg. score: Southampton 0-0 West Brom
Compared to the 0-0 at Carrow Road, this stalemate between West Brom and Southampton at the Hawthorns was a much better watch.
There were five shots on target in total, each side had a ‘big chance’ (xG greater than 0.30) and a total xG of 1.99 split almost evenly.
Although both sides would have probably taken that result before a ball was kicked, the Saints will be the happier of the two.
The pressure is on Tuesday’s hosts though, favourites on the night, should they fail to go up they will be staring down the barrel at the perils of another season in the second tier.
West Brom, on the other hand, are in a much rosier position. A takeover has taken the pressure off the Baggies players and the underdog status is something that suits them according to Conor Townsend.
What are the best bets?
Russell Martin switched to a back three on final day and kept it for the trip to the Hawthorns in an attempt to nullify the Baggies aerial threat.
Although it did that, it meant the Saints lost a lot of offensive output. They had the third fewest shots on target (3) in a game this term.
It was also the first time Martin has failed to beat Carlos Corberan in five head-to-heads. Another hint that the Southampton manager may be feeling the pressure instead of relishing the occasion.
The same cannot be said for Corberan.
He has been in the play-offs before, navigated a semi-finals and failed to win at Wembley. He knows what it’s about.
No doubt he’ll have a plan for every scenario on the South Coast.
Expect set pieces to play a big part again. Eight of West Brom’s 14 shots came from dead balls, throw-ins or directly from free kicks and KYLE BARTLEY had four of those attempts.
The central defender has racked up the highest set piece xG in the Sky Bet Championship this season and has averaged 0.9 shots per game, so at 5/4, backing him to have 1+ SHOTS appeals.
Part of me wants to tout his goalscorer price at 18/1 with Sky Bet but I think the much safer option is backing Bartley to have 2+ SHOTS at 7/1.
He has netted four times but had at least two shots in twice as many games (8), four on Sunday, two on the final day and four during the trip to Hillsborough in the game before that.
So, that is 10 (yes ten) shots across his last three games.
Team news
The main question surrounds the hosts formation. Will Martin revert to the 4-3-3 he has used so often this season or stick with the back three?
There is also concern surrounding the fitness of Che Adams. The frontman hobbled off during the victory at Elland Road on the final day and was not in the squad for the first leg eight days later. Martin is ‘hopeful’ he will be able to play some part on Friday but Ross Stewart should get the nod from the off.
The visitors will be without Josh Maja due to fitness reasons. Corberan preferred Andreas Weimann on the bench in the first leg.
Despite a quiet game at the Hawthorns, Brandon Thomas-Asante should spearhead West Brom’s attack. Tom Fellows may be dropped for Jed Wallace on the right.
Predicted line-ups
Southampton: McCarthy; Walker-Peters, Harwood-Bellis, Bednarek, Manning; Smallbone, Downes, Aribo; Brooks, Stewart, A. Armstrong
West Brom: Palmer; Furlong, Bartley, Kipre, Townsend; Youslu, Mowatt; Wallace, Diangana, Johnston; Thomas-Asante
Match facts
- Southampton have only lost one of their last nine meetings with West Bromwich Albion in all competitions (W7 D1), going down 0-3 in the Premier League in April 2021.
- West Bromwich Albion have only won two of their last 27 away games against Southampton across all competitions (D8 L17), losing each of their last three such visits in a row since a 2-1 Premier League win in December 2016.
- Only Leeds (14) and Ipswich (12) have won more Championship games in 2024 than Southampton (W11 D3 L7), though the Saints did fail to win four of their final eight home games of the regular season (D1 L3).
- West Brom are looking to reach their third Football League play-off final in what is their fifth year, previously doing so in 1993 (third tier) and 2007 (Championship). Indeed, they’ve failed to progress in two of their three semi-finals in the second tier, most recently to Aston Villa in 2019.
- Only Huddersfield (1), Birmingham (1) and Rotherham (0) won fewer Championship away games in 2024 prior to the play-offs than West Brom (2), with the Baggies failing to win any of their last four such games of the campaign (D2 L2).
- Southampton’s Adam Armstrong was involved in more Championship goals in home games than any other player in 2023-24 (20 – 12 goals, 8 assists), including the winner in this exact fixture when these sides met at St. Mary’s in November.
Odds correct at 1000 BST (15/05/24)
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