Southampton v Manchester United tips: Premier League best bets and preview
Jake Pearson previews Manchester United's trip to Southampton, picking out two best bets and a score prediction.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Under 2.5 Goals at 5/4 (MansionBet)
1pt Under 2.5 Cards at 41/20 (Unibet)
The opening weekend of the 2021/22 Premier League campaign was something of a whirlwind, 34 goals scored across the 10 matches, wide-margin victories for title challengers, defeat for the reigning champions, and a couple of come-from-behind wins for good measure.
Manchester United played a big part in that exciting weekend of action, opening their campaign with a 5-1 victory over rivals Leeds, producing a sublime performance to lay down the gauntlet to Manchester City, Liverpool, Chelsea, and anyone else who might fancy having a go at winning the league this season.
Paul Pogba and Bruno Fernandes both came up with impressive individual displays, but equally as impressive were Fred and Scott McTominay in midfield, a duo who rarely get credit but are the cornerstone from which Manchester United build.
Initially penciled in as a tricky opening fixture, in reality, it turned out to be the ideal game to start the season for Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s side; Leeds persisting with their open approach and leaving huge gaps for United to exploit in transition.
Kick-off time: 14:00 BST, Sunday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Southampton 9/2 | Draw 16/5 | Man Utd 4/7
After speculation around Marcelo Bielsa possibly adapting his style of play this season, taking a more conservative approach, particularly against the bigger teams, Leeds approached their away fixture against Man United in the same way they did last season, when losing 6-2.
Solskjaer must have been rubbing his eyes in disbelief when Leeds frivolously attacked the Red Devils, but whether Southampton will adopt a similar approach is up for debate.
The Saints are in a precarious position at present, having lost 16 of their last 22 league matches, as well as seeing last season’s top-scorer Danny Ings depart for Aston Villa, and the unfortunate truth for Ralph Hassenhuttl this season is that remaining in the Premier League would constitute a successful campaign.
After taking the lead against Everton on Saturday, Southampton were victims of a second-half revival from the Toffees, Rafa Benitez producing another of his famed half-time team-talks to ensure the team from Merseyside eventually ran out comfortable 3-1 winners.
Southampton struggled to create any chances of real note in that match, with new signing Adam Armstrong’s goal, for all that is was a good finish, coming courtesy of a poor Michael Keane mistake.
The Saints were happy to surrender possession to Everton in that match, something they may be forced to do against Manchester United.
Enter: the low-block; Manchester United’s nemesis.
It is no secret that Solskjaer’s side have struggled to break down teams content to sit in an defend, and though Southampton are a team who generally like to press their opponents, doing so against Man United would be a huge error; as Leeds demonstrated last week.
Backing a lack of goals may seem folly after these two’s opening matches saw a combined total of 10, but take into account the hot-hand fallacy, whereby people believe a team is “hot” or “cold” depending on past performances, when that performance has little or no bearing on future outcomes.
United’s away record was exemplary last season, averaging 2.26 point per game on the road, but they rarely blew teams away, only winning one match by a margin of three goals or more.
Defensively, they were sound away from Old Trafford, conceding an average of 0.84 goals per game, and all of these stats point towards a low-scoring game, meaning a price of 5/4 for UNDER 2.5 GOALS is certainly worth getting on side.
Another selection that his piqued interest in this fixture is backing UNDER 2.5 CARDS in the match at 41/20.
Only three teams averaged fewer yellow cards at home than Southampton last season (1.21), and while Southampton’s opening fixture against Everton this season saw two cards, none were for the Saints, while Man United only picked up one in their game against Leeds; Luke Shaw in the 89th minute.
In fact, only 21 cards were brandished in total the the Premier League last weekend, an average of 2.1 per game, with referees reportedly having been told prior to the season to try and let the game flow more.
This season could see fewer cards than we are used to, so backing unders could be the way to go until the layers catch on.
Southampton v Manchester United best bets and score prediction
- Under 2.5 Goals at 5/4 (MansionBet)
- Under 2.5 Cards at 41/20 (Unibet)
Score prediction: Southampton 0-2 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 1130 BST (20/08/21)
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