Mark O'Haire: Weekend football best bets and nap for August 21 and 22
After returning a profit last week, renowned football tipster Mark O'Haire is back with his nap, next best bet and longshot for this weekend's action, starting in Yorkshire.
Football betting tips: Premier League, EFL
3pts Each team 3+ corners taken and each team 10+ booking points in Rotherham v Sheff Wed at 5/6 (Nap) (Sky Bet)
1.5pts Manchester United to win on Expected Goals and win the match at 4/5 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
0.5pt Joe Pritchard to score anytime in Crewe v Accrington at 4/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Rotherham vs Sheffield Wednesday
- Kick-off time: 1300 BST, Saturday
- Rotherham 23/20 | Draw 11/5 | Sheff Wed 23/10
A capacity New York Stadium crowd will be in situ to see South Yorkshire rivals Rotherham and Sheffield Wednesday lock horns in League One on Saturday. The recently-relegated pair are expected to feature in the promotion shake-up this season and both clubs have made solid starts to the campaign, already sitting inside the top-six.
Fixtures between the near neighbours have tended to be feisty affairs over the past decade and Saturday’s showdown promises to be a tasty tussle. Four of the most recent six match-ups have featured a sending off, with 10 of the duos last 14 league meetings producing at least one card for each team, and that’s the basis for my selection here.
Marc Edwards has been handed the whistle for his first outing of 2021/22. Last term, without supporters, the referee produced an average of 3.12 cards per-game (and 31.73 Booking Points). In 17 of those fixtures both sides were cautioned, whilst three or more bookings were handed out on 18 occasions.
With cards expected, I’ll complete the wager by highlighting the strong corner trends from both during the embryonic stages of the season. Rotherham’s matches have averaged a huge 15 flagkicks, with the Millers winning at least six corners in all three of their opening encounters in League One, earning nine or more in two of those three tussles.
Meanwhile, Sheffield Wednesday have also proven prominent in the early corner rankings, earning an average of 5.67 per-game with Darren Moore’s attack-minded 4-3-3 system paying dividends. With that in mind, the 5/6 from SkyBet on EACH TEAM 3+ CORNERS TAKEN AND EACH TEAM 10+BOOKING POINTS holds plenty of appeal.
Crewe vs Accrington
- Kick-off time: 1500 BST, Saturday
- Crewe 9/5 | Draw 5/2 | Accrington 6/4
Crewe could be in for a difficult season in League One following the departures of four key players over the past six months. The Alex have made numerous underwhelming additions to the squad but early signs suggest David Artell’s outfit could be battling against relegation this term, with the Railwaymen suffering in both attack and in defence.
Unsurprisingly, the market has moved against the hosts for Saturday’s clash with Accrington and the visitors are now fair favourites to come away from Gresty Road with top honours. Stanley have secured maximum points in two of their first three fixtures, with John Coleman’s front-foot side also ranking fifth in the division for open play xG thus far.
Leading the attacking charge in terms of attempts is the versatile Joe Pritchard. Operating from right wing-back, the former Tottenham youngster has displayed a real desire to get into the penalty box, as well as trying his luck from distance, and JOE PRITCHARD TO SCORE ANYTIME appears overpriced at 4/1 with Betfair and Paddy Power on Saturday.
The 24-year-old notched nine goals in 34 appearances in 2020/21 – bagging in 26% of games – and already this season has fired in 10 efforts at goal, landing five on-target shots across just four league and cup outings. Pritchard’s xG per-League One game this term sits at 0.50, and so a first goal of the new campaign shouldn’t be too far away.
Southampton vs Manchester United
- Kick-off time: 1400 BST, Sunday
- TV channel: Sky Sports
- Southampton 9/2 | Draw 16/5 | Man Utd 4/7
Manchester United could equal the longest unbeaten away record in English top-flight history on Sunday, should they avoid defeat at Southampton. The Red Devils head to St Mary’s having returned W17-D9-L0 in Premier League road trips since being defeated by eventual champions Liverpool way back in January 2020.
Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s side made a menacing start to the new season against Leeds last weekend and the big-spending guests are expected to have Raphael Varane and Edison Cavani back in the fold for the weekend’s clash too, making United an even more formidable prospect for the out-of-form hosts.
Southampton went down with a whimper at Everton in their curtain-raiser, extending their alarming nosedive to 16 league losses in 22 since mid-January. Ralph Hassenhuttl has seen a collection of his frontline stars depart, leaving an inexperienced squad that lacks top-level quality in both boxes, and I’d expect a menacing Man Utd squad to prove too strong.
Cash has come for the visitors all week, but we can bolster the odds on offer by dipping into Betfair and Paddy Power’s new market and support MANCHESTER UNITED TO WIN ON EXPECTED GOALS AND WIN THE MATCH at a much more appealing 4/5 (1.80). That’s a chunky 22% increase in the odds with the Red Devils expected to dominate proceedings on the south coast.
Saints managed just three open play shots against Everton, scoring their only goal from a Toffees error, as the supply line for Che Adams and Adam Armstrong was almost non-existent. The hosts produced a measly 1.00 non-penalty xG per-game average last term and are reliant on generating low-quality xG opportunities from James Ward-Prowse’s set-pieces.
United went W8-D2-L0 at bottom-half clubs last season, winning the xG battle on eight occasions.
Odds correct at 08:00 BST (20/08/21)
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