Vital points in the battle to avoid relegation from the Premier League are at stake on Saturday evening as Southampton host Leicester. Michael Beardmore backs big players to step up.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt James Maddison to score anytime at 15/4 (Unibet, Bet UK)
1pt James Ward-Prowse to score anytime at 22/5 (Bet UK)
We’re coming to the business end of the season where the term “big game” takes on a new meaning – and there’s little doubt that one such encounter takes place at St Mary’s on Saturday evening.
Southampton might be bottom of the Premier League after a pretty rancid campaign made worse by their midweek FA Cup exit to League Two side Grimsby – but they are only four points off safety.
They host a Leicester side in 14th who are one of nine sides separated by just nine points in a congested relegation scrap.
Both sides’ inconsistencies this season make this one a difficult call – Leicester have superior quality but have proven many times over the past few months they are an increasingly tough side to rely on.
Kick-off time: 17:30 GMT, Saturday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Southampton 17/10 | Draw 23/10 | Leicester 8/5
With the above in mind, I’m very much of the thought process that when it comes to big games, big players step up – and I’m siding with one from either team to make it on to the scoresheet.
These are two teams who struggle for clean sheets – Southampton do not have a single shut-out to their name at home this term.
Leicester have kept three clean sheets from 12 attempts away but all have been fortunate, conceding chances equating to 2.01 xGA, 1.51 xGA and 1.16 xGA in those games.
We should expect goals in this one – and given the importance of the game, I am drawn to arguably each side’s talisman: JAMES MADDISON and JAMES WARD-PROWSE in the ANYTIME SCORER markets.
The above graphic displays Leicester’s jaw-dropping reliance on Maddison this season and when you factor in that he has scored nine goals in 17 games, Unibet's 15/4 on him to find the net anytime against a leaky Saints defence is eye-catching.
Maddison has out-performed his xG for two and a half seasons now, he is an elite finisher when given the chance – and you expect he will be given that chance against this defence.
The bet is a teamsheet call because the England midfielder has missed the Foxes’ past two games with illness but boss Brendan Rodgers has stated he expects his playmaker to be fit – and, given the importance of the game, he should start.
It’s also hard to ignore the slightly larger price on Saints skipper Ward-Prowse, who has contributed almost a third of Southampton’s top-flight goals this season, chiefly with his wand of a right foot.
JWP has scored five times in his past nine games, including all three Saints goals in their crucial 2-1 and 1-0 wins at Everton and Chelsea respectively – should they prevail, he will likely play a big part.
The free-kick specialist is as short as 5/1 to score from outside the box so 22/5 from any area at any time appeals instead.
Southampton v Leicester best bets and score prediction
- James Maddison to score anytime at 15/4 (Unibet, Bet UK)
- James Ward-Prowse to score anytime at 22/5 (Bet UK)
Score prediction: Southampton 1-2 Leicester (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Odds correct 1700 GMT (02/03/23)
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
