League leaders Arsenal travel to the south coast to face Southampton on Sunday. Jake Osgathorpe previews the game, selecting his best bet.
Football betting tips: Premier League
2.5pts Arsenal to win and Under 4.5 Goals at evens (Betway, Boylesports)
Arsenal are still leading the league through 10 games, and the Gunners have generally been excellent this season, winning the xG battle in nine of 10 matches.
That type of consistency bodes well for a title tilt, but their level of dominance at home and away is a stark contrast.
They visit a lowly Southampton side who, while coming into this on the back of a win, have really struggled this season.
Kick-off time: 14:00 BST, Sunday
TV Channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Southampton 19/4 | Draw 16/5 | Arsenal 8/15
The Saints deservedly beat Bournemouth in midweek, but again struggled to create good chances.
Across their last six league games, Ralph Hasenhuttl's side have generated an average of just 0.94 xGF per game, which is a concern as they welcome a strong defensive side.
At the other end of the pitch, Southampton have looked incredibly vulnerable even at home, shipping 1.89 xGA per game, again, far from ideal when welcoming the league leaders.
Mikel Arteta's side boast the best travelling defensive record in the league this season according to xGA, allowing just 1.17 per game, but are a much tamer attacking unit away from the Emirates.
On the road, the Gunners average just 1.38 xGF per game compared to 2.63 at home, showing that they are a much more cautious team on the road, happy to win in a narrow and ugly fashion.
I expect similar this weekend, especially given the Saints recent struggles at both ends of the pitch, so backing ARSENAL TO WIN AND UNDER 4.5 GOALS makes great appeal at even money.
This bet has landed in four of Arsenal's five away games, with the only game it didn't win being the defeat at Old Trafford.
Southampton v Arsenal best bets and score prediction
- 2.5pts Arsenal to win and Under 4.5 Goals at evens (Betway, Boylesports)
Score prediction: Southampton 0-2 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 1515 BST (21/10/22)
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