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Football betting tips: Euro 2024 qualifying
0.5pts Dion Charles to score anytime at 15/4 (Sporting Index, Star Sports)
Northern Ireland have lost seven of their last 11 games.
Since their 2-0 victory away to San Marino, Michael O'Neill's side have lost to Finland, Denmark and Kazakhstan via the same 1-0 scoreline.
Four games into their European qualification campaign and that trio of narrow defeats has left the Green and White army second from bottom of Group H, six points off qualification.
O’Neill will be feeling aggrieved at his side's precarious position given the underlying data. His side's lack of clinical edge could cost them a spot at another European Championships.
Northern Ireland created the same amount of ‘big chances’ (xG greater than 0.30) against Kazakhstan (2) as their opposition but Kazakhstan took theirs. It was the same story against Finland - one ‘big chance’ apiece, Finland took theirs and Northern Ireland did not.
Slovenia took maximum points from their opening two games but have only managed a point from the six on offer since.
Matjaz Kek's men are four points ahead of Northern Ireland but could move top of the group with a victory on Thursday.
What are the best bets?
If Northern Ireland’s fortunes in front of goal are going to change, you would bet your bottom dollar DION CHARLES has something to do with it.
Domestically, in Sky Bet League One, Charles has picked up where he left off last campaign, scoring four goals in five appearances, building on the 16 he bagged the season before.
For his nation, Charles has scored the only two goals of the European qualifying campaign. Granted, both were against minnows San Marino but the frontman leads the way in; xG per 90 (0.68), shots on target per 90 (1) and shots per 90 (3).
At 7/2, I am happy to take a punt on him TO SCORE ANYTIME.
BuildABet @ 13/1
- Northern Ireland to win
- Dion Charles to score
- Over 2.5 goals
CLICK HERE to back with Sky Bet
Northern Ireland have been living in the realms of fine margins.
Their games against Kazakhstan and Finland were settled in front of goal but with the quality at O’Neill’s disposal, this poor fortune should change.
The underlying data suggests the lack of goals as far as the Green and White Army is concerned is unsustainable and I think this game in Ljubljana will buck the trend.
Score prediction: Slovenia 1-2 N. Ireland (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)
Team news
Slovenia boss Kek has called upon Aljosa Matko, an uncapped forward, for the upcoming qualifiers. Slovenia’s supremo should stick with Atletico Madrid keeper Jan Oblak in between the sticks.
Jonny Evans will be looking to put his disappointing return to Manchester United behind him at the weekend. The veteran defender should make his 102nd start for his nation alongside Paddy McNair and Craig Cathcart.
After making a string of appearances for Southampton, Shea Charles has been recalled and should start in central midfield.
Predicted line-ups
Slovenia: Oblak; Karnicnik, Brekalo, Bijol, Janza; Stojanovic, Cerin, Elsnik, Mlakar; Sporar, Sesko
N. Ireland: Peacock-Farrell; McNair, Evans, Cathcart; Hume, McCann, S Charles, Saville, Thompson; Price, D Charles
Odds correct at 1250 BST (06/09/23)
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