Sky Bet EFL: Match previews and best bets for fixtures on Saturday February 29
The Sky Bet EFL continues this weekend as we enter the final quarter of the season. Tom Carnduff picks out his best bets.
Recommended bets
1pt Jack Harrison to have 3+ shots in Hull v Leeds at 10/3
1pt Barnsley to beat Reading at 12/5
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Hull v Leeds
Hull could have considered themselves as play-off outsiders at one point, but the loss of Jarrod Bowen and Kamil Grosicki has hit them hard and they now find themselves in a battle for survival.
The games don't get any easier though and Saturday sees them welcome a Leeds side who are five points clear of third as they chase automatic promotion.
The Whites have won three consecutive games by a 1-0 scoreline while Hull come into the contest with no win in any competition since January 4.
Eight of their last ten games have ended in defeat while their home fans have seen six losses in their last seven trips to the KCOM Stadium.
Leeds will fancy their chances of success but, and apologies for hitting cliche territory, the Sky Bet Championship is such an unpredictable league that the 4/9 price on an away win provides little appeal.
Instead, with this game being the early kick-off on Saturday, the stats markets are available and the price that immediately caught my eye was the 10/3 available on Jack Harrison to have three or more shots in the game.
The winger has been a regular in Marcelo Bielsa's side this season and continues to improve as the weeks progress. The Harrison of this season is much better than the Harrison of last. Working under Bielsa's guidance is clearly paying off for the Manchester City loanee.
Harrison posted two shots during the win over Middlesbrough in midweek and also had two in their draw at Brentford. What that demonstrates is his ability to try and find the net even when they are away from home.
Two or more total shots is still an odds-against price but it's worth gambling on that extra shot to give the better value.
Harrison has hit three or more shots in a league game on seven occasions this season, while the two or more shots statistic stands at a huge 18. There is a strong case to be made for backing shots in a game where they should be on the front foot throughout.
Best bet: Jack Harrison to have 3+ shots at 10/3
Opta facts
- Hull have failed to score in their last two home league games against Leeds, drawing 0-0 in January 2018 and losing 0-1 last season.
- Leeds are looking to record a league double over Hull for the first time since the 1989-90 season, when they won promotion from the second tier.
- Leeds last played on a leap year day in 2016, losing 4-0 against Brighton and Hove Albion under Steve Evans.
- Hull are winless in 10 games in all competitions – they haven’t gone 11 without a win since February 2010.
- Leeds have won their last three league games 1-0 – they last won four consecutive league games 1-0 back in December 1964.
- Hull are one of three Championship teams yet to win at home in 2020, along with Middlesbrough and Reading.
Reading v Barnsley
Barnsley's three-game winning run has moved them to within three points of safety.
It's been a good few weeks for those currently in the relegation zone. The Tykes have seen nine points from nine while Luton have won three of their last four and Wigan are currently unbeaten in four games.
This week sees Barnsley travel to take on a Reading side who have lost three of their last four. It's moved them to within five points of the drop zone, and given the resurgence of those at the bottom, the Royals could be drawn into a battle to avoid the drop.
That resurgence puts Gerhard Struber's side in a good position though as they visit the Madejski Stadium. The two sides are in contrasting form which makes the 12/5 best price on an away win very appealing.
An indication of Reading's current position is in the 3-0 home defeat to Wigan last time out. The Latics have historically struggled away from the DW Stadium but secured all three points on offer with ease.
To make matters worse, the Royals' home showings throughout the course of the current season has left a lot to be desired. They sit bottom of the home standings with just six wins from their 17 games.
Barnsley's away form has been picking up though with two consecutive wins on the road. Those came in a 1-0 win at Hull with a convincing 3-0 victory at Fulham the week before.
Reading haven't justified their 5/4 tag in recent weeks. Based on form, it's worth siding with the away team on Saturday.
Best bet: Barnsley to beat Reading at 12/5
Opta facts
- Reading are unbeaten in their last five league games against Barnsley (W2 D3) since a 1-3 home defeat in March 2014.
- Barnsley have failed to score in five of their last seven away league matches against Reading (W2 D2 L3).
- Reading haven’t lost three consecutive league games since September 2019 under former boss José Manuel Gomes.
- Barnsley are looking to win four consecutive Championship games for the first time since February 2013.
- Reading won five of their first seven games at the Madjeski Stadium under Mark Bowen but have since won none of their last seven in all competitions (D4 L3).
- Barnsley striker Cauley Woodrow has scored 14 Championship in 29 appearances this season – as many as he scored in 76 appearances in his previous four campaigns at this level between 2014-15 and 2017-18.
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Odds correct at 1555 GMT (27/02/20)
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