Sky Bet EFL: Match previews and best bets for fixtures on Saturday November 16
The international break doesn't stop the Sky Bet EFL with action in League One and League Two. Tom Carnduff picks out his best bets.
Recommended bets
1pt Matt Crooks to score anytime in Rotherham v Accrington at 17/4
1pt Joseph Mills to score anytime in Forest Green v Plymouth at 5/1
1pt Sam Smith to score anytime in Walsall v Cambridge at 21/10
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Rotherham v Accrington
The Millers are fancied for victory here against an Accrington side looking to avoid dropping into the bottom three.
Rotherham are odds-on to grab three points which could move them into the top-six of the Sky Bet League One table, although consistency has been a real issue across their 15 games so far.
They've also had some issues with performing at home, despite boasting the second-best away record in the division. Regardless, they should have enough to get past this Stanley side.
For value, the first of our goalscorer selections comes in the midfield area and Matt Crooks has been a key element of this Rotherham side under Paul Warne.
He's featured in 19 games across all contests this season, scoring eight goals and providing a further two assists. He's clearly enjoyed the switch to a more advanced role in recent weeks, scoring a brace in their wins over Ipswich and Gillingham.
He's also high on the stats chart. Out of the 509 players to have featured in League One this season, the Millers man is in the top 5% for shots taken.
Crooks should enjoy multiple opportunities on goal in this contest and a best price of 17/4 on a goal anytime is generous.
Best bet: Matt Crooks to score anytime at 17/4
Opta facts
- Rotherham have beaten Accrington Stanley in five of their last six league meetings (D1), including each of the last three.
- Since winning at Rotherham on their first ever league trip back in March 2008, Accrington are winless in five games, losing each of the last four (D1).
- Rotherham have lost their last two home games in League One, while they haven’t lost three in a row at home in the competition since November 2017.
- Accrington Stanley have failed to score in each of their last three league games (D1 L2), their longest drought since a run of six games without a goal between December 2018 and February 2019.
- Matt Crooks has scored six goals in his last six league games for Rotherham, scoring a brace on three occasions in this run (versus Coventry, Ipswich and Gillingham).
Forest Green v Plymouth
Dropping down into Sky Bet League Two and a contest with real potential for goals sees Forest Green welcome Plymouth.
Rovers currently sit top of the standings with nine wins from their 16 games so far. Their opponents have struggled to hit the consistency required to be a real promotion-contending outfit at this point, although their efforts in attack do provide hope.
Forest Green's defence is tight with just ten goals conceded. Their 20 goals scored may not be the highest but it has been enough to give them the points required to be in their current position.
Plymouth are a team that can breach that back line though and I'm confident enough to side with an over 2.5 goals prediction, despite that only happening in a third of the home side's games so far.
One price that immediately catches the eye is 5/1 on Joseph Mills netting anytime. The Forest Green man has been a real presence down their left side with five goals and four assists this season.
Despite being a natural left-back, the attacking intent has shown throughout his time at the club - although the fact he has already beaten last season's tally shows the fact he's now presented with more chances to strike.
Mills is also the team's designated penalty taker giving him another opportunity to score. The best price of 5/1 is generous for a player with his record so far alongside the fact he may be playing in midfield, but the value is still there if that drops down to the 4s mark.
Best bet: Joseph Mills to score anytime at 5/1
Opta facts
- This will be the first meeting between Forest Green Rovers and Plymouth in the Football League.
- Forest Green will become Plymouth’s 116th different opponent in the English Football League – the Pilgrims are winless in their last nine games against sides they’ve faced for the first time in the EFL (D5 L4) since a 3-1 victory against MK Dons in January 2011.
- Table toppers Forest Green Rovers have lost just one of their last 10 league games (W6 D3), a 1-0 defeat against Exeter in October.
- Plymouth have become the second side in League Two this season to follow up a 4-0 victory with a 4-0 defeat (also Leyton Orient).
- Plymouth have conceded seven headed goals so far this season – more than any other League Two side.
Walsall v Cambridge
Walsall's form is nothing short of a disaster currently. Defeat to Swindon extended the losing run to six games in League Two and it has left them sitting just two points above the relegation zone.
On the contrary, victory for Cambridge could move them to within a point of the play-off positions and you wouldn't back against that happening given the Saddlers' recent showings.
One of the many concerns for Walsall is that they've conceded at least two goals in each of those defeats. Across the six-game run, 14 goals have been scored against them with just four in reply.
Sam Smith will see this as a real opportunity to add to the seven goals he has already scored this season. The 21-year-old is on-loan from Championship side Reading and has established himself as a key part of this Cambridge side.
He's also seeing plenty of opportunities on goal and should perhaps have a higher tally than he does at this point. Regardless, the current amount of goals will still be pleasing to all parties concerned.
His 22% goal conversion rate is a big positive when compared to other strikers in the league. A general price of above 2/1 is available on Smith striking in 90 minutes.
Best bet: Sam Smith to score anytime at 21/10
Opta facts
- Walsall have lost just one of their eight matches against Cambridge in the Football League (W5 D2), winning each of the last four.
- Cambridge have failed to score in six of their eight meetings with Walsall in the Football League, netting just three goals in total and conceding 14.
- Walsall have lost six consecutive league games, conceding two or more goals in each of those matches – the Saddlers last endured a longer losing run in the Football League between October 1988 and February 1989 (run of 15).
- Cambridge will be aiming to avoid three consecutive away defeats without scoring, last going on such a run in the EFL back in February.
- Cambridge have scored nine goals in the final 15 minutes of League Two matches this season – no side has scored more in the division.
Odds correct at 1900 GMT (14/11/19)
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