Sky Bet EFL play-offs: Key factors that determine the winners, including finishing position & form
It's the most exciting, thrilling, breath-taking three weeks of the footballing season as the Sky Bet EFL play-offs are set to get underway on Thursday night with Charlton hosting Shrewsbury Town.
Fans will go through every emotion as their side look to reach the division above, with Championship teams aiming to reach the coveted Premier League and the riches that it brings.
Each team will have their reasons for being involved, with some providing little surprise in where they finished in the league, whilst others gave us a shock in making the play-offs.
History can be kind to some because of the position they finish in, and form is often viewed as a crucial part of a team's chances in the play-offs.
From past meetings to outside chances, a significant number of factors come into play when it comes to finding success.
Tom Carnduff looks at this season's contests, and examines what goes into picking a play-off winner.
The background
It's already been 46 games of graft, determination, ups and downs but play-off teams find themselves having to get through three more games for success.
The semi-finals see 3rd v 6th (4th v 7th in League Two) and 4th v 5th (5th v 6th in League Two) which is decided by final season standings.
They play home and away with the aggregate winner progressing to the final at Wembley.
Extra-time and penalties can be used in the semi-final second leg if the aggregate score is tied. Away goals do not count.
The EFL announced recently that goal-line technology would be used across all play-off games this season, a first in Football League history.
Are the ‘top seed’ always promoted?
In short no. In fact, it’s pretty rare that we have actually seen the team finishing third (or fourth in Sky Bet League Two) progress to the division above in recent years.
In the past five seasons, only Norwich City, Preston North End and Fleetwood Town have won the final after finishing in the highest possible play-off places.
That means that only 20% of highest-placed teams get promoted through the play-offs, showing that the better team throughout the season don’t necessarily end on a high.
League One and League Two saw the teams finishing in sixth and seventh promoted last season, with the top-finishing sides not even making the Wembley final.
That said though, third-place is preferential. Since the introduction of the play-offs, the majority of top-placed sides do go up in the end. 25 'top-placed' sides have been promoted, whilst 41 have not.
Does form play a big part?
Form definitely helps teams going into the play-offs, but it isn’t necessarily a guarantee of promotion.
Huddersfield Town endured a torrid end to their Championship campaign. The Terriers won just five of their final 14 games last season, but ended it with victory on penalties over Reading.
Equally, Barnsley lost just three of their 24 games prior to the League One play-offs in 2016, a second-half of the season revival that fired them into the top-six.
They’d beat Walsall 6-1 on aggregate before a 3-1 victory over Millwall in the final to book their place in the division above.
That same season, AFC Wimbledon finished six points clear of Leyton Orient to snatch a play-off spot.
The Dons had won six of their final eight games before remaining undefeated throughout the post-season competition to progress to the league above.
It’s beneficial for teams to have a good run of results heading into the play-offs, although they can be beaten to the promotion spot.
Which position is the best to finish in?
Obviously, each season is different, but a look at which team has been promoted gives us a good indication of who could end up successful.
In the Championship, third and fifth are historically the best positions to finish in.
The team who finished in third were promoted eight times, with the team in fifth promoted on seven occasions.
The worst would be fourth, where only three teams have been successful out of 22, just 13% of teams involved.
League One is far more open, but once again third-place is narrowly the better position.
They may have stuttered towards the end of the season, but the good news for Shrewsbury Town is that seven of the 22 third-placed sides have gone onto achieve promotion.
Fourth and sixth share six promotions each, whereas fifth is by-far the worst position with just three, which makes bad reading for Scunthorpe.
Once again, the top seed is promoted more in League Two. Ten fourth-placed sides have gone onto achieve promotion, more than any other division.
On the contrast, just two of the sides who ended up in sixth get promoted, which isn't good for current favourites Coventry City.
Do regular season meetings influence the outcome?
Last season, the three promoted teams in Huddersfield, Millwall and Blackpool managed just one regular season win between them against the sides they played in the semi-finals.
Huddersfield lost twice to Sheffield Wednesday, Blackpool lost twice to Luton and Millwall managed a win to go alongside their away defeat to Scunthorpe.
They had slightly better luck against the teams they played in the final, bumping that number up to two with Huddersfield’s home win against Reading and Blackpool’s victory against Exeter on opening day.
It highlights how recent encounters count for little, and teams can overturn defeats in the season for victory in the play-offs.
Which team to back?
12 teams will be competing across the three divisions and each team have their own strengths and weaknesses heading into the play-offs.
There's been a couple of surprise inclusions, particularly in League One, whilst the Championship has four of the league's heavyweights involved.
Every team is priced above even money, and if you're feeling brave you can get good value if you put three teams on a treble.
Betting on the favourites
Each division obviously possesses the favourites and there's little shock that Fulham are a short-priced 15/8 for promotion.
Slavisa Jokanovic's men have been in a remarkable form during the second-half of their campaign and their 23-game unbeaten run came to an end at Birmingham on final day, meaning they missed out on automatic promotion.
They are the team to be avoided in the play-offs and Middlesbrough would have been relieved that their point away at Ipswich moved them into fifth.
In League One, Charlton and Rotherham share the 12/5 price for promotion to the Championship.
The Addicks have seen a revival under Lee Bowyer's leadership and Rotherham have been a regular in the top-six during the second part of the season.
The two sides will avoid each other until the final and it'd be one of the most open finals of the three if the two were paired together.
For me, the League One play-offs are the most intriguing, with Charlton and Shrewsbury hoping for their own fairy tale endings, whilst Rotherham and Scunthorpe have previously experience at this level.
Coventry and Lincoln share the 9/4 favourites price in League Two but this division is incredibly close in the betting prices with Notts County the outsiders at 7/2.
This division does always give us entertaining clashes and it really is anyone of four sides who will be moving up a league.
Backing a favourites treble of Fulham, Charlton and Coventry gives a price of 28/1, showing the big value that the play-offs can provide.
Betting on the outsiders
Of course, each division has its outsiders who will look to upset the odds and achieve promotion.
In the Championship, it's Derby who are 9/2 to finally reach the Premier League once again.
Gary Rowett's men have had an up and down season but ultimately ended it by finishing in sixth. They face the tough task of getting past Fulham in two legs which is why their price is so big.
Despite narrowly missing out on automatic promotion, Shrewsbury find themselves as 10/3 outsiders in League One.
They'll line-up against Charlton in the semi-finals but will fancy their chances of pulling off a shock promotion.
Salop have shown throughout the season that they can bounce back in tough circumstances, and will be looking to add their name as eighth third-place team to go up in the division.
History hasn't been the kindest to sides finishing in fifth in League Two and that's why Notts County are slight 7/2 outsiders here.
They'll be looking to see off Coventry in the semi-finals, although if they do make Wembley you'll see those odds tumble.
The Magpies have had a great season and finished seven points off automatic at the end of it. They're a big price, but will be confident heading into the post-season competitions.
Fancy a long shot treble? Derby, Shrewsbury and Notts County all to get promoted comes up at a huge 106/1 with Sky Bet.
Betting on the form teams
Form doesn't count for everything, but it does give teams a big advantage heading into the play-offs.
Whilst Fulham's 23-game unbeaten run grabbed the headlines, Middlesbrough are unbeaten in four and secured victories over promotion chasing Derby and Bristol City in the final weeks.
Scunthorpe boast the best form out of any of their League One rivals, putting together an eight-game unbeaten run at the conclusion of the season.
They have managed to secure victories over Plymouth and Charlton in recent games too, beating teams around them at a pivotal point in the campaign.
Oddly in League Two, all four teams have experienced defeat in recent weeks. However, Exeter probably have better form than the other three.
Paul Tisdale's men have lost just two of their last ten games, winning six and finishing fourth in the division.
They may have lost to Lincoln in a five-goal thriller - but they did pick up points against champions Accrington and Swindon, who finished just outside the play-offs.
Backing Middlesbrough, Scunthorpe and Exeter as an 'in-form' treble gives a price of 55/1 with EFL title sponsors Sky Bet.
Division-by-division
Sky Bet Championship
Fulham are rightly the favourites for promotion and they have been exceptional for the second part of the season.
They come up against a Derby side who faced a battle to make the top-six, although they have recent experience of the play-offs.
It's difficult to look past Fulham to reach the Premier League given their form this season.
Waiting in the final will be one of Aston Villa or Middlesbrough, who are two real heavyweights in this division.
Villa may be favoured for victory, but this tie is one that genuinely can go either way and the team that progresses will have a strong chance in the final.
Middlesbrough may possess better form, but we know the quality that Villa possess and Steve Bruce will be eager to reach the Premier League once again.
I'd be looking at 13/8 Fulham to be celebrating at Wembley, although backing Fulham to win and Aston Villa to finish as runners-up gives a price of 4/1 with Sky Bet.
Verdict: Fulham to win the Sky Bet Championship play-offs (Sky Bet odds: 13/8)
Sky Bet League One
For me, this is the most exciting play-offs of the three divisions because of the stories that come with each team.
Shrewsbury have enjoyed a remarkable season that sees them just miss out on automatic promotion, despite starting the season as favourites for relegation.
Rotherham have excelled in Paul Warne's first full season in charge of the club, whilst Scunthorpe are in the running as expected despite a managerial change late in the season.
Lee Bowyer's leadership of Charlton has revitalised the squad, and has given the fans the belief that they can bounce back into the Championship despite years of anger and disappointment surrounding the club.
I'm looking forward to seeing how the Shrewsbury v Charlton tie plays out, with both sides having their storybook endings a potential possibility.
Town's relegation status will have a real 'rags to riches' feel about it if they win at Wembley, whilst Charlton will have a former academy player at the helm, returning to lead the first-team back to the division above.
I've been really impressed with Bowyer's start to management and I'd be looking at them as winners of these play-offs.
They may have lost on final day, but a run of three victories propelled them into the promotion running, and they'll be looking to capitalise on Shrewsbury's slip-ups at the wrong time of the season.
Verdict: Charlton to win the Sky Bet League One play-offs (Sky Bet odds: 12/5)
Sky Bet League Two
Coventry and Lincoln lead the betting but the market is open for who will end up victorious at Wembley.
Lincoln face Exeter whilst Coventry face Notts County, and I'd be looking towards Exeter to upset the odds and reach League One.
Tisdale's men came close last season and will be looking to use that experience this time around.
Lincoln are understandably a fancied team, with the Cowley brothers attracting all levels of interest given the impact they've had during their time at the club.
However, Exeter are the in-form team here and will want to draw upon recent results as they aim to get past the Imps, which includes their recent defeat at Sincil Bank.
Coventry or Notts County will make a tough opponent in the final, but Exeter's price of 3/1 seems tempting given the circumstances.
They could have enough to make Lincoln wait for another promotion.
Verdict: Exeter to win the Sky Bet League Two play-offs (Sky Bet odds: 3/1)
Promotion treble
Whilst Fulham and Charlton find themselves with the favourites tag, Exeter's price of 3/1 would make for an interesting treble.
Backing the three teams to gain promotion as part of a treble gives a price of 34/1 with Sky Bet.
If you're looking for a bigger-priced accumulator, combining the straight forecast predictions into one gives huge value.
Using the predictions above, having Fulham to win the Championship final with Villa runners-up, Charlton to win the League One final with Scunthorpe runners-up and Exeter to win the League Two final and Coventry runners-up with Sky Bet comes back at a massive 296/1.
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Odds correct at 1045 BST (09/05/18)
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