Sky Bet Championship: Antepost betting tips ahead of new season
We're under three weeks away from the start of the Sky Bet EFL season and football expert Tom Carnduff assesses some of the best antepost value.
The dust has barely settled on a thrilling World Cup, but there is no time to rest with the Sky Bet Championship campaign is just a couple of weeks from getting under way.
The league will see a number of returning faces this season, with West Brom, Stoke and Swansea all looking to bounce straight back to the Premier League following relegation last season.
Further down the pyramid, Blackburn and Wigan did exactly that by earning promotion from League One with the minimum of fuss, while Rotherham's time away was short-lived too as they won the play-offs.
Previous big-hitters in Aston Villa and Sheffield Wednesday aren't expected to live up to what remain lofty expectations, which could pave the way for a few surprise teams to emerge by the time May comes around.
Sporting Life's antepost package will be published closer to the big kick-off, but there's value to be had now before the transfer window enters its final weeks.
EFL title sponsor Sky Bet are offering four places instead of three (1/5 the odds) on all outright bets placed until August 4 and they also have a number of daily EFL price boosts lined up for those looking for pre-season positions.
Here are Tom Carnduff's best antepost bets...
Nottingham Forest to win the Championship at 10/1
They've flirted with the drop down to the third tier at times in recent years, but Nottingham Forest have a strong case for lifting the Sky Bet Championship trophy in May.
The appointment of Aitor Karanka back in January was a positive step forward following the doomed spells of Philippe Montanier and Mark Warburton, with this summer bringing a number of impressive additions.
It probably wasn't fair to judge Karanka's spell as manager based upon last season given the fact that he inherited this side at the midway point and much more is expected now that he's had time to make an impression.
The Spaniard lifted Middlesbrough into the top flight following a seven-year absence in 2016 and he is more than capable of doing the same with the East Midlands outfit.
Attacking midfielder Joao Carvalho has joined from Benfica for a fee reported to be around the £15m mark and Lewis Grabban, who finished as the league's second highest scorer at the end of the last campaign after loan spells at Sunderland and Aston Villa, has made the switch from Bournemouth for what could be a bargain £6m price.
Gil Dias, El Arbi Hillel Soudani and Tobias Figeuiredo are a trio of other signings that rate particularly shrewd business and should help to propel Forest further up the table.
Ben Brereton also has the potential to take his performances to the next level following a successful 2017/18 campaign. The 19-year-old struck nine goals and provided seven assists in 55 appearances and he should eclipse those numbers as he continues to improve.
Forest may have finished down in 17th last season, but this is a new-look side who will get better with the calibre of additions they are making at this point - with more to come before the season begins to unwind.
Stoke and West Brom are expected to challenge for the title, with the likes of Leeds, Swansea and Middlesbrough also in the mix, but Forest are tipped to be battling for promotion throughout and could well shorten over the coming weeks.
Leeds to finish in the top six at 11/8
It's been a bizarre summer for Leeds so far.
On one hand, the appointment of Marcelo Bielsa as the club's new head coach can be noted as one of the most remarkable additions made by a club in this division.
The Argentine has been an inspirational figure for the likes of Mauricio Pochettino and Pep Guardiola and is viewed as a godfather of innovation in the game by so many.
So, when he arrived in LS11, you can understand the fact that it raised a few eyebrows among the football community.
On the other hand, Leeds have still experienced frustration in the transfer market. Attempted deals for Abel Hernandez and Matej Vydra, who finished as last season's top scorer, haven't been able to reach a conclusion.
That said, they haven't fully closed the door on the addition of either, if the players in question are willing to lower their wage demands.
I think there is value in backing Leeds at 11/8 at this point to finish in the top-six given the fact that their transfer business is far from done.
The Whites are obviously in the market for a top-end striker and a forward who can prove to be a handful, alongside a couple of defensive recruits to bolster things at the other end.
Despite a slow start, Leeds have still made additions and called upon one of the Premier League's top sides to provide them with quality.
Goalkeeper Jamal Blackman fills the void left by the departures of Felix Wiedwald and Andy Lonergan - who both had spells as first choice during their time at the club - with midfielder Lewis Baker experiencing success with England at youth level.
Both have joined on season-long loan deals and should be a key part of Leeds' campaign.
Samuel Saiz has already shown his quality and there could be more to come from the likes of Ezgjan Alioski and Adam Forshaw, who are both expected to thrive under Bielsa's guidance.
It seems clear that these are the first of a number of acquisitions and with high-profile signings potentially to come, Leeds may well firm up in the betting given their high-profile manager and, as ever, lofty aspirations.
QPR to be relegated at 11/2
They finished last season in 16th, and the only way appears to be down for QPR.
Ian Holloway's departure paved the way for a potential revival of the West London outfit, but the appointment of Steve McClaren leaves a lot to be desired.
The 57-year-old arrives on the back of poor spells at Newcastle and Derby, alongside a stint at Maccabi Tel Aviv where he found himself as a 'coaching consultant' - their third-place finish in the Israeli Premier League does little to increase enthusiasm.
Given his track record in recent years, it's a little hard to understand why clubs continue to look upon McClaren as the answer to their problems - certainly, among fans there has been a sense of bewilderment to go with fear that things could be about to get worse at Loftus Road.
QPR aren't a squad blessed with top-end talent in this division and McClaren won't get the best out of them in all likelihood.
Rotherham may be favourites for the drop, but they have a real feel of togetherness under Paul Warne and will be desperate to significantly improve on their dismal showing the last time they were at this level.
Ipswich made a promising appointment in Paul Hurst, who led Shrewsbury to the League One play-off final, while Hull have been active in the transfer market in a bid to avoid the drop.
That makes QPR a real possibility for relegation to the third tier and odds of 11/2 are generous.
Aston Villa to be relegated at 8/1
With Financial Fair Play having a firm grip on the Sky Bet Championship this season, Aston Villa appear to be at the point of suffocation.
The West Midlands club are in financial turmoil, with reports suggesting they can't even afford to bring in free transfers or loan players.
They have a good squad now, one that got them to the Championship play-off final in May, but players have already departed and more will follow through the exit door.
Star man Jack Grealish should be on his way to the Premier League amid significant interest, while other clubs will circle like vultures knowing that they could pick up a bargain from a willing seller.
The squad hold the key to the finances required to hit targets, and with the club unable to bring in new faces, alarm bells are ringing loudly with the new season fast approaching.
Even if they can muster together a decent playing outfit, the atmosphere surrounding the club is toxic - and that will more than likely influence events on the pitch.
I'm surprised to see Aston Villa as big as 8/1 to be relegated as a result and as more players depart, it's easy to see punters cottoning on to their predicament.
Other clubs, Leeds and Portsmouth being prominent examples, who have had to tussle with financial difficulties have free-fallen down the divisions - even with what appears to be a decent starting XI on paper.
The worrying thing for Villa is that this looks to just be the start of their problems. Often clubs who have found themselves in a similar situation have had to wait years to heal and work their way back up.
There are very little positive reports coming from Villa Park, with some even suggesting that the club needs to be sold as early as this week.
It doesn't bode well for the upcoming campaign, and preparations have been completely disrupted by off-the-field issues.
West Brom to be automatically promoted at 7/2
As well as offering an extra place on each-way bets in the outright market, EFL title sponsors Sky Bet are also providing a daily price boost each day in the run up to the season.
There's also a competition on offer where punters only have to opt in once and stake £1 or more on any ‘EFL Daily Boost’ to earn an entry into a prize draw to win a signed shirt as Sky Bet continue their support of the EFL.
It's of course best to judge each boost on its merits but I do like the look of West Brom to gain automatic promotion, which is decent value at 5/2 but has been pushed out to a massive 7/2, which looks great business.
The Baggies experienced a late revival under caretaker boss Darren Moore, who went onto get the job on a permanent basis, but he didn't have enough time to maintain their top-flight status.
They may have lost the likes of Jonny Evans and Ben Foster with little in terms of money in return, but their summer business so far has otherwise been positive.
Goalkeepers Jonathan Bond and Sam Johnstone joined to fill the void left by Foster, whilst Kyle Bartley - who impressed on-loan at Leeds two seasons ago - joined for the £4m fee they secured from the Evans sale.
As discussed above, there is plenty of competition at the top end of the table, but West Brom are more than capable of securing a place in the automatic spots given the players they still have at their disposal.
Jake Livermore was on the fringes of the England squad prior to the World Cup and could end up staying at the Hawthorns, while Kieran Gibbs has recent playing history with new addition Bartley and brings experience of playing in the Champions League.
It's likely that any further money generated from player sales will go back into the squad, and they also have the riches of parachute payments to play with and invest in bringing in the quality that Moore will want.
At 7/2, there is definite value to be had in backing the Baggies to return to the Premier League without the need for play-off drama.
Posted at 1235 BST on 17/07/18.
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