Sheffield United v Coventry City: Championship preview and best bets
Surprise packages Coventry City visit Sheffield United in the Championship on Saturday lunchtime. Michael Beardmore has a preview and two best bets.
Football betting tips: Championship
1.5pts Over 4.5 Coventry corners at 5/4 (bet365)
1pt Each team 2+ corners in each half at 10/3 (Sky Bet)
If, back in August, you had said this would be a battle of 17th against fourth approaching the Sky Bet Championship season’s halfway point, few people outside Coventry would have got the teams the right way around.
But Mark Robins’ Sky Blues have been the second tier’s surprise package thus far while Sheffield United have struggled to adapt to life back out of the top flight under new boss Slavisa Jokanovic.
Coventry’s success, however, has been built on their impressive home form – a return of just eight points from 24 on the road making the outcome of this one tough to predict against a Blades team that hardly inspires confidence at Bramall Lane, with a record of W3 D1 L4.
To me, United are unbackable at shades of odds-on – 10/11 generally – with most firms and the value lies in either the draw, at 13/5 in several places, or Coventry at a large 16/5 with Sky Bet.
Kick-off time: 12:30 GMT, Saturday
TV channel: Sky Sports Football
Sheff Utd 17/20 | Draw 13/5 | Coventry 16/5
The double chance on Coventry or Draw at 10/11 or Coventry (Draw No Bet) at 2/1 both make some appeal, but having lost half of their away games it’s tough to put too much trust in them at relatively short prices, especially given Infogol's Expected Goals metrics suggest the somewhat unfortunate Blades should be eight places better off than they are.
Both sides have shared the goals around to an extent this season – the Blades more so than Coventry – and the scorer markets are difficult to nail down as a result.
Sky Blues’ nine-goal top scorer Viktor Gyokeres looks undervalued at 15/2 (Bet365) to score first but he is on a six-game drought, while United’s joint leading marksman Morgan Gibbs-White, on four, is worth a look at 7/2 to net anytime having made an impact since joining on loan from Wolves.
Not for the first time in a Coventry game this season, however, the best value is to be found in the corner markets – something that has led to profit in previous Sky Blues matches.
Robins’ side’s style of play – getting to the byline, getting crosses into the box, taking shots from range – lends itself to frequent flag-kicks, and that is borne out by the stats.
They sit second in the Championship, behind West Bromwich Albion, for average corners per game on 6.35 and actually top the standings for games on the road, averaging 6.75 corners per away match.
With those figures in mind, they have been underestimated by the bookies here – you can get 6+ Sky Blues corners at 2/1 but I’m playing it safer by going for OVER 4.5 COVENTRY CORNERS at 5/4 with Bet365 given that’s a total they’ve exceeded in 12 of their 17 games.
Sheffield United are no slouches in the corner department either – indeed they are third overall (6.06 per game) and second at home (6.88 per game) but their status as hosts here means their prices are much shorter.
Nonetheless, those stats indicate that the 10/3 offered by Sky Bet on 2+ CORNERS EACH TEAM EACH HALF is very much worth a play.
At home, United, spurred on by their ever-boisterous Greasy Chip Butty Army, average 3.5 first-half corners and 3.38 in the second half, while Coventry, capable on the counter, average 4.13 in the first half and 2.63 after the break, numbers which make that 10/3 price incredibly appealing.
In a game that could easily go any of three ways, it makes sense to head for the corners rather than back yourself into one.
Sheffield United v Coventry City score prediction and best bets
- 1.5pts Over 4.5 Coventry corners at 5/4 (bet365)
- 1pt Each team 2+ corners in each half at 10/3 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Sheff Utd 1-1 Coventry (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct 1130 GMT (18/11/21)
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