James Cantrill looks for winners from Serie A, picking out thee best bets for the weekend slate.
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Football betting tips: Serie A
2.5pts Juventus +0.5 Asian Handicap at 19/20 (bet365)
2pts Both teams to Score in Roma v Fiorentina at 10/11 (bet365)
1pts Juventus to win to nil v Napoli at 7/1 (BetVictor)
Roma v Fiorentina
- Kick-off time: 19:45 GMT, Sunday
- TV Channel: BT Sport 1
- Roma 1/1 | Draw 12/5 | Fiorentina 14/5
Roma clawed their way back from two goals down at the San Siro on Sunday, drawing level with AC Milan in dramatic fashion.
With three minutes of the 90 remaining, Lorenzo Pellegrini's out-swinging corner was met by Roger Ibanez's head to halve the deficit for Jose Mourinho's men.
Five minutes later, the same player swung in a freekick from a similar position and Ciprian Tatarusanu could only parry Nemanja Matic's header directly into the path of Tammy Abraham, who swept home the equaliser.
While a point does little to change the league proceedings, though the manner of it will galvanise La Giallorossi. The chaos of this draw depicts the hosts campaign pretty well, with goals often rife and control lacking.
Roma have kept clean sheets in five of their 17 league games, though three of those shut-outs came in their first four games of the campaign.
Since their 3-0 victory over Monza, Mourinho's side have only managed clean sheets in 15% of their matches.
The two teams they did manage to keep at bay, Sampdoria and Bologna, generated a combined xG of 1.18 and missed a 'big chance'.
Fiorentina are averaging over a goal a game, BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE has clicked in seven of their last eight.
All things considered, at a shade under evens, both sides to be amongst the goals is the play.
Score prediction: Roma 2-1 Fiorentina (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 1600 GMT (11/01/23)
Napoli v Juventus
- Kick-off time: 19:45 GMT, Friday
- TV Channel: BT Sport 1
- Napoli 19/20 | Draw 12/5 | Juventus 3/1
The suburb of Fuorigrotta plays host to a clash between Serie A's top two on Friday evening as league leaders Napoli welcome Juventus, and, unsurprisingly, this will have huge ramifications on the race for the Scudetto.
A home victory will extend I Ciucciarelli's lead at the top to 10 points with the rest of the chasing pack in action over the weekend, while victory for the Old Lady leave them just four points off the pace, meaning we will have a title race on our hands.
At the beginning of October, Massimiliano Allegri's side looked a long way off it. At that point, nine games into the campaign, they had only won on three occasions.
Behind the scenes, the club lurched towards a crisis as Andrea Agnelli and the board stepped down at the end of November amidst the ongoing investigation into the club's finances.
On the pitch, Juventus' form began to pick up. Domestically, Allegri's side have won their last eight on the spin, beating Inter, Lazio and Udinese over that period, without conceding a single goal.
Their trip to Naples represents their sternest test of the season so far. Serie A's sweethearts' unbeaten run was only ended in their penultimate game, 16 matches into the season.
Luciano Spalletti's side are yet to taste defeat at home, winning 11 of their 12 at the Diego Armando Maradona Stadium.
However, given the magnitude of this fixture, and its ramifications, I think taking JUVENTUS +0.5 on the ASIAN HANDICAP is the play at the prices available, with 19/20 accessible on bet365.
The +0.5 Asian handicap is the same bet as double chance, but we can get a better price by taking the Asian line in this instance which is preferred.
A staggering aspect of Juventus' unbeaten run is that they have not conceded a single goal, not one, in eight games, that is 720 minutes of domestic football.
Over that period they have shipped an xGA of 4.17, that is as xGA per game of 0.52, and only one team has generated a total of over one.
The Old Lady have leaked 95 shots in that time but only 21 hit the target and their eight opponents only managed to carve out four 'big chances'.
To put that into perspective, Juve racked up an xG of 13.19, scoring 14 times from 113 shots and created 21 big chances in those games.
At 7/1, taking JUVENTUS TO WIN TO NIL has also got to be a play, a bet that has clicked in each of Juve's 11 league victories this campaign.
A major caveat to this is the league leaders firepower.
Victor Osimhen is two goals clear on the hunt for the Capocannoniere award, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia is also amongst the top assisters, his tally of five is only bested by three players, one of which is team mate Mario Rui (6).
If Allegri's side are going to get a result, as I fancy, I think they will edge a low-scoring affair.
Score prediction: Napoli 0-1 Juventus (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Odds correct at 1330 GMT (11/01/23)
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