Serie A tips, best bets, predictions and previews: Matchday 27 picks
James Cantrill looks for winners from Serie A, and he has a very familiar name among his selections.
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Football betting tips: Serie A
2.5pts Victor Osimhen to score anytime in Torino v Napoli at 7/4 (bet365)
1pt Lazio to beat Roma at 19/10 (SBK)
1pt Marcelo Brozovic to be shown a card in Inter v Juventus at 49/20 (Unibet)
0.5pts Amir Rrahmani to score anytime in Torino v Napoli at 15/1 (Unibet)
Inter v Juventus
- Kick-off time: 19:45 GMT, Sunday
- TV Channel: BT Sport 1
- Inter 19/20 | Draw 12/5 | Juventus 29/10
The feast of football on Sunday in Italy concludes with the Derby d'Italia as Inter host Juventus.
A stalemate was enough to secure Inter’s place in the Champions League quarters on Tuesday where they face Benfica.
La Nerazzurri domestic form has been faltering as of late though with their victory over Lecce sandwiched in between the defeats at Bologna and Spezia.
Sky have them as odds on favourites here, but galvanised by their points deduction, Juventus have stepped it up a gear.
A narrow defeat at the Stadio Olimpico the only blemish over a period of six games in which the Old Lady have won five.
You could make a case for both sides here, one thing I am fairly certain of though is cards, the last six meetings have thrown up 34 yellows and three red cards.
Backing the hosts' most cynical player, MARCELO BROZOVIC TO BE SHOWN A CARD is the play here.
The Croatian has picked up five in 10 starts which explains why he is as short as 11/10 elsewhere.
Score prediction: Inter 0-0 Juventus (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Odds correct at 1640 GMT (17/03/23)
Torino v Napoli
- Kick-off time: 14:00 GMT, Sunday
- TV Channel: BT Sport 2
- Torino 19/5 | Draw 5/2 | Napoli 3/4
Napoli regained some composure at Serie A's summit last weekend with another major scalp, as Luciano Spalletti's side bounced back from a narrow defeat to Lazio with a win over Atalanta.
That victory was followed by an emphatic success over Eintracht Frankfurt in the Champions League, vanquishing any fears that I Ciucciarelli's first loss in 10 games was anything other than a blip. It also stands them in good stead for domestic and European silverware.
VICTOR OSIMHEN ended a drought of two games on Wednesday, the longest he has gone without a goal in six months, hitting a double against the Bundesliga boys.
Typically, the frontman was touted in this column twice during his barren spell. Over that period, the Nigerian international racked up seven shots, hit the woodwork and missed a 'big chance' (xG over 0.35).
There is a knack to punting, knowing when to back something and when to leave it and while I was late to the Osimhen party, I don't think it is winding down just yet and at 7/4, his price to SCORE ANYTIME certainly appeals here.
Torino built on a crucial victory over Bologna with another three points at Lecce and those back-to-back victories saw them climb into the top half of the table.
One thing Ivan Juric's side do lead the way in is poor defending from set pieces, only Cremonese (11) have conceded more times from dead ball situations, then the Bull (9).
Coincidentally, they face the second best side in the division at scoring from them.
Juventus are the only Italian top flight team to find the net more times then (15) from set pieces than Napoli. Three of the Old Lady's four goals came via them when these sides recently met with Danilo and Bremer amongst the goals.
In eight games against Italy's big boys, Torino have conceded eight goals, 40% of which have come via set pieces.
Centre back, AMIR RRAHMANI looks the most likely candidate for Napoli.
The defender was amongst the goals in his side's last league game, doubling his last domestic tally for the season, and I fancy him to be amongst the goals once more. Backing him ANYTIME GOALSCORER is the play.
Score prediction: Torino 0-3 Napoli (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct at 1100 GMT (16/03/23)
Lazio v Roma
- Kick-off time: 17:00 GMT, Sunday
- TV Channel: BT Sport 1
- Lazio 17/10 | Draw 21/10 | Roma 7/4
It is the Derby della Capitale Sunday.
Roma came back down to earth with a thud following their victory over Juventus. It was a win that moved them into the top four and extended their sensational defensive record in 2023 in which they had not conceded a goal at the Stadio Olimpico since the turn of the year.
Sassuolo put an end to that, scoring four times to beat Jose Mourinho's side in a seven goal thriller, but on the road, La Giallorossi have not been so solid though.
In their 13 away games, Roma have shipped 16 goals, conceding in 77% of those matches.
They have only won one of their last six games away from the capital as well and have struggled against fellow big clubs all season long.
In the eight games against Juventus, Napoli, Atalanta, Milan, Inter and Lazio, Mourinho has only overseen two wins and lost on four occasions.
LAZIO got the better of them in their own backyard and I fancy them to complete their first double over their local rivals in over a decade, backing them to WIN.
Le Aquile's stalemate at Bologna last weekend was the first time they have dropped points in four games and saw them miss out on the chance to go second in the league.
However, Maurizio Sarri's side are a team for the big occasion, beating Napoli and thumping AC Milan recently.
Score prediction: Lazio 1-0 Roma (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct at 1800 GMT (15/03/23)
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