Barcelona v Real Madrid tips: El Clásico La Liga best bets and preview
Barcelona host Real Madrid in the second La Liga El Clásico of the season. Liam Kelly has a bet in a game that has big title implications.
Football betting tips: El Clásico La Liga
1.5pts Under 2.5 Goals at evens (bet365, BetVictor, Parimatch)
1pt Under 0.5 First-half Goals at 2/1 (General)
1pt Vinicius Júnior to be shown a card at 41/20 (Unibet)
With just 13 games remaining in the La Liga season, the nine-point gap between Real Madrid and old foes Barcelona makes this El Clásico a crucial one in the 2022/23 title race.
You would have to think Real need a victory to keep their chances of retaining their crown alive.
Carlo Ancelotti’s side have been comfortably second best to Barca in the league this season, though, so a roundabout 5/2 to win at the Camp Nou seems fair, especially when you look at the record of Barcelona at home during the domestic campaign.
Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Sunday
TV channel: Viaplay Sports 1, LaLigaTV
Barcelona 23/20 | Draw 5/2 | Real Madrid 9/4
Xavi’s Barca have gained 32 points from a possible 36 as hosts, remaining unbeaten at their legendary stadium.
Perhaps more impressive is the fact that Barcelona have conceded just one single goal at the Camp Nou in La Liga all season, a penalty in a 1-1 draw with city rivals Espanyol. In that game, they allowed just three non-penalty shots.
Long story short, Barcelona’s defence is very, very good, despite being consistently underestimated. After all, they’ve conceded only eight goals across the 25 league matches.
Granted, it is a statistical anomaly that Barca have conceded just one at home, allowing chances equating to 10.2 expected goals against (xGA), but that is still a solid rate.
Averaging 0.85 xGA per game at home makes me fairly confident in selecting UNDER 2.5 GOALS in El Clásico at evens.
UNDER 0.5 FIRST-HALF GOALS also makes appeal in this game at a tempting 2/1.
Barca have hardly been fluid from an attacking perspective recently, scoring five goals in their past five La Liga matches, leaning on that solid defence to gain points.
They should be able to keep a Real Madrid side that might look a little languid after playing midweek in the Champions League quiet.
In the cards markets, Gavi's price has crashed in recent months as many have now caught up and realised he loves getting stuck in.
VINICIUS JÚNIOR TO BE SHOWN A CARD is interesting at 41/20 with Unibet, though.
Only two players in La Liga have more yellow cards than Vinicius Júnior's eight this season, and he's been particularly indisplined since the World Cup. Indeed, he's seen yellow in the past three league fixtures.
The Brazilian winger averages a relatively high 1.6 fouls per game and it's easy to see Vini getting frustrated again in a big match.
Barcelona v Real Madrid best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Under 2.5 Goals at evens (bet365, BetVictor, Parimatch)
- 1pt Under 0.5 First-half Goals at 2/1 (General)
- 1pt Vinicius Júnior to be shown a card at 41/20 (Unibet)
Score prediction: Barcelona 1-1 Real Madrid (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 1500 GMT (17/03/23)
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