Serie A tips, best bets, predictions and previews: Matchday 21 picks
James Cantrill has picked out five winners from his last eight Serie A selections. He's picked out four bets from this weekends slate.
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Football betting tips: Serie A
2pts AC Milan most booking points v Inter Milan at 10/11 (Sky Bet)
1.5pts Empoli or Draw Double Chance v Roma at 13/8 (General)
1pt Jean Daniel Akpa Akpro to be shown a card in Roma v Empoli at 8/5 (bet365)
0.5pts Jean Daniel Akpa Akpro to be sent off in Roma v Empoli at 28/1 (bet365)
Inter v AC Milan
- Kick-off time: 19:45 GMT, Sunday
- TV channel: BT Sport 1
- Inter 19/20 | Draw 13/5 | Milan 11/4
The stakes are not quite as high as when they met in Serie A last February, as the local rivals competed for the Scudetto.
Milan edged a match that saw three goals and eight cards, three points that proved to be crucial and they finished two ahead of Inter to lift their first title in 11 seasons.
With Napoli 13 points clear of second placed Inter, this clash is not played against as dramatic a backdrop as 12 months ago, though it should not make much difference.
The last two league meetings between these sides have seen a total of 15 cards, the Rossoneri were responsible for two thirds of them, winning the card count on both occasions.
Stefano Pioli's side have been very cynical throughout the campaign. They are amongst the top 25% in the Italian top flight for cards accumulated, picking up 52, while only Napoli and Juventus have picked up fewer than Inter.
Therefore, backing AC MILAN MOST BOOKING POINTS seems logical.
Inter have averaged 1.9 cards per game this season and have racked up the most booking points in 40% of matches.
Milan, on the other hand, have averaged 2.6 and won the count in each of their last three league games.
Score prediction: Inter 1-1 AC Milan (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Roma v Empoli
- Kick-off time: 17:00 GMT, Saturday
- TV channel: BT Sport 2
- Roma 1/2 | Draw 16/5 | Empoli 6/1
I am simply not having Roma at the minute, and will not go near them at 1/2, even with them at the Stadio Olimpico.
Jose Mourinho's side have lost their last two on the spin, a narrow defeat against run-away league leaders Napoli and a loss at home to a struggling Cremonese in the Coppa Italia.
La Giallorossi have only won four of their last 10 games in all competitions, though it is worth noting that the underlying data suggests Jose's side have been unfortunate this campaign, underperforming their xGD (21.58) by over 13 goals.
EMPOLI will come into this brimming with confidence. They are unbeaten in their last six, with only Inter Milan and Napoli taking more points over that period.
In that stretch, they have drawn against Lazio and Udinese and beaten Inter at the San Siro.
So, their chunky price in the DOUBLE CHANCE market is the play in Rome.
JEAN DEANIEL AKPA AKPRO has served us well of late, picking up bookings over the last two weekends, so it would be daft to not continue to back him with his price to be SHOWN A CARD holding.
The midfielder's card record in Serie A is unbelievably cynical.
The Ivorian has 18 in 51 appearances, giving him a cards per 90 average of 0.84 and directly translated into a price, that is 1/5.
The midfielder originally signed for Lazio in Serie A, Roma's Derby della Capitale rivals, and when he faced his old foe earlier this season for Empoli, he was sent off despite not starting the game.
Akpa Akpro was carded within a minute of coming on, then recieved a straight red for a tackle three minutes from time in a cameo that lasted 24 minutes. Backing a repeat RED CARD here at 28/1 appeals as a longshot.
Score prediction: Roma 1-1 Empoli (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 1530 GMT (03/02/23)
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