La Liga tips, best bets, predictions and previews: Matchday 20 picks
Liam Kelly searches for more value in the next round of La Liga fixtures, looking to continue a profitable spell.
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Football betting tips: La Liga
1.5pts Real Sociedad to win to nil v Real Valladolid at 11/10 (General)
1pt Barcelona to win with -1 goal handicap v Sevilla at evens (Sky Bet, Betfair Sportsbook, PaddyPower)
Real Sociedad v Real Valladolid
- Kick-off time: 17:30 GMT, Sunday
- TV channel: Viaplay Sports 1, LaLigaTV
- Real Sociedad 2/5 | Draw 7/2 | Real Valladolid 9/5
As mentioned in last week's La Liga tipping column, Real Sociedad are back on a roll, hitting the familiar form of previous successful seasons under Imanol Alguacil.
That starts at the defensive end, an area that Reala have excelled in recently.
After winning five in a row in the league while conceding just two goals, Real Sociedad earned a point in a goalless draw with Real Madrid at the Bernabéu last Sunday.
Alguacil's side allowed an average of just 0.79 expected goals against (xGA) per game across those six matches, making REAL SOCIEDAD TO WIN TO NIL a value bet at odds-against, especially versus this particular opponent.
Real Valladolid are the worst team in La Liga when it comes to attacking numbers as an away side this season.
In scoring only five goals in nine fixtures on the road, they've averaged a meagre 0.67 expected goals for (xGF) per game.
A similarly poor defensive process makes it easy to envision a home win for Real Sociedad, and with the hosts proving to be tough to score on, backing them to do so with a clean sheet is the play against Real Valladolid.
Score prediction: Real Sociedad 2-0 Real Valladolid (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct 1800 GMT (02/02/23)
Barcelona v Sevilla
- Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Sunday
- TV channel: ITV 4, Viaplay Sports 1, LaLigaTV
- Barcelona 3/10 | Draw 17/4 | Sevilla 9/1
I'm wholly unconvinced that two fairly comfortable home victories against Cádiz and Elche suggest that Sevilla are turning around their very disappointing campaign.
Severe defensive frailties likely remain and should be exposed by the best team in the league at both ends of the pitch, especially with Robert Lewandowski back in the fold.
Only four teams have conceded more than the 33.8 expected goals against (xGA) that Sevilla have shipped this season, and a trip to the Camp Nou should result in defeat.
Indeed, BARCELONA TO WIN WITH A -1 GOAL HANDICAP looks the way to go in this match-up.
Barcelona could easily blow Sevilla away as an offensive force, but their defensive numbers offer encouragement when it comes to betting on Xavi's side to win by a two-goal or greater margin.
Granted, Barca have been fortunate to concede just one single goal (a penalty) from 8.0 xGA in home games this term, but allowing an average of 0.89 xGA per game across those nine matches is still impressive.
Sevilla are not the team they were, losing too much talent over the last few transfer windows, so Barcelona can be expected to win comfortably and extend their lead at the top of La Liga.
Score prediction: Barcelona 3-0 Sevilla (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct 1800 GMT (02/02/23)
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