James Cantrill previews the weekend's Serie A action providing his best bets which includes a 16/1 punt.
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Football betting tips: Serie A
2.5pts Over 5.5 Cards in AC Milan v Roma at 7/8 (BetVictor)
2pts Theo Hernandez card in AC Milan v Roma at 13/8 (Sky Bet)
1pt Edin Dzeko anytime goalscorer in Monza v Inter at 6/4 (bet365)
0.5pts Theo Henandez, Bryan Cristante and Gianluca Mancini to be carded in AC Milan v Roma at 16/1 (bet365)
AC Milan v Roma
- Kick-off time: 19:45 GMT, Sunday
- TV Channel: BT Sport 1
- AC Milan 4/5 | Draw 5/2 | Roma 7/2
Two points from three games in the run up to the World Cup saw Roma slump to 7th.
Victory over Bologna upon their return was just the tonic for Jose Mourinho’s side and moves them back in the right direction towards Champions League qualification.
His Giallorossi side are flat track bullies, against the big boys, they often go missing, which is bad news as they head to the San Siro on Sunday.
Since Mourinho took the reins in the summer of 21, Roma have played 17 games against the league's biggest and best (Napoli, AC Milan, Juventus, Lazio, Inter and Atalanta) winning on just four occasions!
Over this period, Roma have lost 10 times, that is 48% of games, and while they may fall short in terms of results, Roma always go down with a fight.
There have been 107 cards in those games, with red cards brandished in a whopping 29%, .
Things are especially spicy when these two clash with an average of 7.33 cards per game over their last six meetings.
Since Mourinho took charge, there have been a staggering 23 cards in the two league meetings with Milan, 12 in one game, 11 in the other, with three players getting their marching orders.
All that considered, backing OVER 5.5 CARDS looks the obvious play and a real runner at 7/8 with BetVictor.
Davide Massa has the whistle for this one, and despite averaging over five cards per game domestically this season, his numbers are not out of the ordinary in Italy.
That being said, the whistleblower has dished out 20 yellows and three reds during the last three times he has overseen games involving I Giallorossi.
THEO HERNANDEZ is the prime candidate to be SHOWN A CARD.
The French full back is I Rossoneri’s most booked player this season and has been carded in each of these sides last two meetings and three of the last four.
Interestingly, over the last six head-to-heads, he has either picked up a card or been the best player on the pitch, picking up Whoscored’s Star Man accolade.
I’ll be hoping for the former here.
Everything suggests cards should be plentiful here making it as good a time as any to have a punt on a few players to go into the book.
I’ll be combining Hernandez with GIANLUCA MANCINI and BRYAN CRISTANTE at 16/1.
The visiting pair have each picked up four cards domestically this campaign, the former topping his sides charts for tackles (3.4) and the latter for fouls (1.3) of players to play over 1,000 minutes.
Mancini was sent off when these sides last met and booked the time before and Cristante has picked up three cards in his last six appearances and faces his former club.
Score prediction: AC Milan 2-1 Roma (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 1245 GMT (06/01/23)
Monza v Inter
- Kick-off time: 19:45 GMT, Saturday
- TV Channel: BT Sport 1
- Monza 5/1 | Draw 10/3 | Inter 1/2
Prior to their clash with Napoli, Simone Inzaghi said that he absolutely believed his side could still win the title yet if Inter would have lost, it would have stretched the gap between the sides to 14 points.
A goal from EDIN DEZKO was enough to secure the victory, moving them to within eight points and breathing new life into their Scuetto challenge.
At 36-years old, the veteran is showing no signs of slowing down.
Since making the switch from the Premier League to Italy eight seasons ago, the frontman has scored 105 goals, winning the Capocannoniere in his second season with a staggering 29 goals.
Dzeko has scored seven league goals this season, hitting form recently with a flurry of goal contributions, having a direct hand in five in his last three appearances.
At 6/4, his price to SCORE ANYTIME here looks very large, especially considering he is odds on to find the net elsewhere.
His baseline goals per 90 average was 0.31 in 18/19 but the Bosnian has averaged 0.49 in Italy, certainly making this value.
La Nerazzurri have developed a reputation as fast starters this season, no side has scored more goals in the opening 15 minutes than them.
They have taken 21 points from the last 24 available and, though Monza are wiley opponents, if the visitors get their noses in front at the Brianteo, you would bank on them to return with the points and their inform man is bound to have a hand in the goals.
Score prediction: Monza 0-2 Inter (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 1240 GMT (06/01/23)
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