Looking to continue a good run of pre-World Cup profit in La Liga, Liam Kelly searches for more value in the next round of fixtures.
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Football betting tips: La Liga
2pts Over 1.5 Valencia Goals v Cádiz at 4/5 (William Hill)
1.5pts Sevilla to win to nil v Getafe at 31/20 (BetVictor)
1pt Under 2.5 Goals in Atlético Madrid v Barcelona at 10/11 (General)
Sevilla v Getafe
- Kick-off time: 17:30 GMT, Sunday
- TV channel: Viaplay Sports 1, LaLigaTV
- Sevilla 8/11 | Draw 12/5 | Getafe 17/4
High on the list of Jorge Sampaoli's tasks after he was appointed Sevilla manager in October must have been their home form.
Sevilla were winless at the Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán prior to the World Cup, gaining just three points from seven games at a location that has often been an absolute fortress.
Despite the poor showings this season, Sunday's match-up with Getafe represents an excellent opportunity for Sevilla to move themselves out of their surprising position in the relegation zone.
Improvement must start in defence. They've conceded 23 goals from 29.4 expected goals (xG) in La Liga thus far, but, again, this fixture is a favoured one to change fortunes.
Indeed, SEVILLA TO WIN TO NIL is the selection.
To steal a term often used in basketball, Quique Sánchez Flores and Getafe love to 'muck it up'. Often involved in rather boring matches with few chances, Sevilla can claim a first home win without conceding.
Getafe have found it difficult to create scoring opportunities despite some positive results. Across their last eight league matches, Sunday's visitors have averaged 0.65 expected goals for (xGF) per game.
Score prediction: Sevilla 2-0 Getafe (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Odds correct 1900 GMT (05/01/23)
Atlético Madrid v Barcelona
- Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Sunday
- TV Channel: ITV4, Viaplay Sports 1, LaLigaTV
- Atlético Madrid 2/1 | Draw 12/5 | Barcelona 13/10
Although they sit fourth in La Liga, it's been an uncharacteristically sloppy season for Diego Simeone's men, posting a +2.5 expected goal difference (xGD) that ranks eighth in the league.
Perhaps most surprising is their inability to stop teams from creating chances this term (20.5 xGA), usually a staple of a Diego Simeone side. Still, Atléti have conceded just 14 times in 15 games and are always capable of putting in a stubborn defensive display.
That might well be the case here given Barcelona's Robert Lewandowski predicament. Barca's star striker had a ban upheld by the courts this week, which will see Lewandowski miss the next three matches. Obviously, that severely blunts their attacking threat.
However, for the purposes of the selection — UNDER 2.5 GOALS — it is Barcelona's defensive process that catches the eye.
Available at a pick 'em price of 10/11, two or fewer goals makes sense at the Wanda Metropolitano with Barca being the strongest team at the back in the league this season.
Xavi's side have conceded just six times in their 15 La Liga matches, allowing an average of 0.83 expected goals against (xGA) per game.
Score prediction: Atlético Madrid 1-1 Barcelona (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 0930 GMT (06/01/23)
Valencia v Cádiz
- Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Friday
- TV channel: Viaplay Xtra, LaLigaTV
- Valencia 11/20 | Draw 3/1 | Cádiz 5/1
Valencia are seemingly still underestimated as an attacking side under Gennaro Gattuso, which is the basis for a value selection in this Friday night fixture.
OVER 1.5 VALENCIA GOALS makes appeal given their performances this season, especially at the Mestalla, available to back at 4/5 with William Hill.
Gattuso's men have scored 15 goals in eight home matches and are averaging an impressive 1.83 expected goals for (xGF) per game as hosts this term.
They should have similar, if not greater, joy against a Cádiz team that are still struggling despite a small upturn in form before the break.
Cádiz returned to action with a 1-1 home draw versus Almería, but again looked susceptible at the back, allowing 2.29 expected goals (xG).
Considering they've averaged 2.30 expected goals against (xGA) as the away team during this La Liga campaign, backing Valencia goals is the play.
Score prediction: Valencia 3-0 Cádiz (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Odds correct 1800 GMT (05/01/23)
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