Following his outright preview for the season, Ninad Barbadikar returns with three best bets for the midweek Serie A action starting on Tuesday.
Football betting tips: Serie A
1pt Lautaro Martinez to score anytime in Inter v Cremonese at 4/5 (Sky Bet)
1pt Tammy Abraham to score anytime in Roma v Monza at evens (Unibet)
1pt Rafael Leao to score anytime Sassuolo v Milan at 2/1 (Betfair/Paddy Power)
Sassuolo v Milan
- Kick-off time: 17:30 BST, Tuesday
- TV Channel: BT Sport 8
- Sassuolo 17/4 | Draw 10/3 | AC Milan 4/7
Stefano Pioli's side have made a good start to defending their Serie A title this season, collecting seven points from a possible nine so far.
After claiming nine clean sheets in the final 13 fixtures of the 21/22 season, Milan have only managed to keep one clean sheet this campaign, in their most recent 2-0 win against Bologna.
The underlying numbers remain hugely positive though, the Rossoneri still have the best defensive process in the league, conceding just 1.6 xG according to Infogol.
That defence will be put to the test once again when they travel to Sassuolo where Milan have had a lot of joy in past meetings, winning their last six meetings at the Mapei Stadium.
Rafael Leao scored 11 times and assisted a further eight last season and opened his account for 22/23 against Bologna. There is value in backing him this time around and so RAFAEL LEAO TO SCORE looks like the play to chase.
Leao opened the scoring against Bologna in the first half and then turned creator for the second, slicing through the Bologna defence to find Olivier Giroud who made it 2-0 at the hour mark.
He has averaged 4.97 shots per match so far in the league, and although it is a small sample size, that shot volume is encouraging and no doubt he will look to hurt Sassuolo again after grabbing a brace of assists in Milan's last visit at the Mapei Stadium, a 3-0 victory for Pioli's men.
Score prediction: Sassuolo 1-3 Milan (Sky Bet 10/1)
Roma v Monza
- Kick-off time: 19:45 BST, Tuesday
- TV Channel: BT Sport 9
- Roma 2/9 | Draw 21/4 | Win 11/1
Jose Mourinho's Roma welcome newly promoted Monza to the Stadio Olimpico in Rome, looking to maintain their unbeaten start to the season.
The Giallorossi have won seven points from their first three matches of the season, dropping points only against Juventus in a 1-1 draw at the Allianz stadium.
Before that, Mourinho's men faced another newly promoted outfit in Cremonese, beating them 1-0 thanks to a Chris Smalling goal from a set-piece.
Roma's attacking process so far has produced strong underlying numbers, their xG for of 6.7 is only behind Napoli in Serie A, the caveat being that the opposition they have faced so far is significantly weaker with the exception of Juventus of course.
Against both Salernitana and Cremonese, Roma created chances worth more than 2.5 xG and similar can be expected against Monza, who currently have the worst defensive process in the league, conceding an xG of 8.0 in their three games played.
Tammy Abraham scored the all-important equaliser against Juventus and will look to add to take advantage of home support against Monza to add to his tally of one goal in Serie A.
He has been the focal point of Roma's attack so far and with the addition of Paulo Dybala, those two will be the centrepiece of Mourinho's attack going forward. So, TAMMY ABRAHAM TO SCORE makes for a valuable backing in this one.
In the past three games, Abraham has averaged 0.58, 0.91 and 0.63 xG against Roma's opponents respectively and it is his ability to find himself in dangerous positions to shoot from, which makes him a threat regardless of opposition.
Score prediction: Roma 2-0 Monza (SkyBet 11/2)
Inter v Cremonese
- Kick-off time: 19:45 BST, Tuesday
- TV Channel: BT Sport 8
- Inter 1/9 | Draw 8/1 | Cremonese 20/1
Simone Inzaghi's side will look to bounce back from their 3-1 defeat against Lazio when they welcome Serie A returnees Cremonese to the San Siro.
Le Tigri haven't had a great start to life back in the Italian topflight after 26 years, losing their first three games in a row and have found the step up in quality difficult to live up to.
Inter, on the other hand, have looked like their old selves again with the return of Romelu Lukaku among other key additions boosting an already stacked squad. The Belgian has looked lively thus far in his return, rediscovering his spark alongside Argentina striker Lautaro Martinez.
Martinez leads the scoring charts at Inter with two goals so far from an xG of 1.85 in three matches. He will look to press on and extend his tally against Cremonese's defense which has so far generated the second worst defensive process in the league behind Monza, with 6.9 xG conceded.
Inter's attack itself has had the fourth best attacking process so far, averaging a total of 6.1 xGF in three games but expect those figures to improve as the season goes on, it is worth noting that they had the best attacking process last season across the league by a country mile.
Considering all of that, for this game, there will be goals and backing LAUTARO MARTINEZ TO SCORE makes for a value play.
Lukaku's rumoured unavailability for this game due to injury is not going to affect Martinez's output as Edin Dzeko is a more than capable replacement for Lukaku and will dovetail nicely with Martinez just as he did last season.
Score prediction: Inter 3-0 Cremonese (SkyBet 6/1)
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