Football betting tips: Nations League
1pt Scotland to win and under 2.5 goals at 2/1 (General)
1pt Andy Robertson 1+ shots on target at 9/4 (Betfair, Paddy Power, Sky Bet)
0.5pt Robertson 2+ shots on target at 16/1 (bet365)
It's been a mixed start for new boss Sebastien Pocognoli, one that - barring an unlikely set of results - looks set to consign Scotland to another campaign in the second tier of the Nations League.
Inconsistency has been the only consistent feature of his short reign.
Scotland were ultimately unlucky to draw 0-0 in Slovenia on matchday one, but were terrible in the first half. The reverse fixture was a similar story in reverse, as they ran out of ideas after leading 1-0 at the break before going on to lose 2-1.
Pocognoli's first game at Hampden saw his team thrashed 3-0 by Switzerland, with Jack Hendry's early red card setting the tone for a forgettable night that got worse when the resulting free-kick was fired home.
The Tartan Army's only complete performance came in Skopje, where they dominated North Macedonia to win 2-0, although even that was not without blemish as Scott McKenna was sent off late on.
That showing should at least give Scotland confidence heading into Friday's rematch, and it's difficult to make much of a case for the visitors.
North Macedonia have lost all four games, conceding 10 goals without scoring - only Liechtenstein and Gibraltar have averaged less than their 0.35 xG per 90 in this season's Nations League.
They are on a seven-match losing streak and have failed to find the net in eight.
Scotland were 7/4 to win to nil in the reverse fixture and are a painful 4/6 this time around.
To North Macedonia's credit, they rarely get properly thumped, largely because they sit deep and focus on damage limitation. With the market seemingly expecting Scotland to run up a big score, there is some value in SCOTLAND TO WIN AND UNDER 2.5 GOALS at 2/1, trusting the hosts to remain somewhat clunky under Pocognoli.
There is another angle I like, though, which takes a different view of the game.
While Scotland haven't scored many, they have created plenty of chances, averaging 2.6 xG per 90 across their fixtures against Slovenia and Macedonia.
A key feature of Pocognoli's approach has been the attacking role of wing-backs ANDY ROBERTSON and Ben Gannon-Doak, best illustrated in Skopje when they each had four shots. Robertson hit the target once, while Gannon-Doak managed three.
As a natural winger, Gannon-Doak is understandably short in the shots and SHOTS ON TARGET markets (4/6 for 1+ and 3/1 for 2+), but the discrepancy is big enough to make ROBERTSON at 9/4 for 1+ SHOTS ON TARGET and 16/1 for 2+ SHOTS ON TARGET worth backing.
The Scotland captain has been particularly accurate with his attempts for Tottenham this season, averaging 0.40 shots on target per 90 and testing the goalkeeper with three of his five Premier League attempts.
Odds correct at 17:20 GMT (11/11/26)
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