Premier League betting tips: Previews, Super 6 predictions & best bets for Saturday's 3pm kick-offs
The Premier League returns this weekend, so mark your card for Saturday's 3pm kick-offs with the best bets, Super 6 predictions and top stats for each game.
Recommended bets: March 30, 2019
1pt Southampton to score 2+ goals v Brighton at 9/4
1pt James Maddison to score anytime in Leicester v Bournemouth at 13/5
2pts Highest scoring half in Man United v Watford - to be the second at Evens
For advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Fixtures
- Fulham v Manchester City (1230 KO)
- Brighton and Hove Albion v Southampton
- Burnley v Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Crystal Palace v Huddersfield Town
- Leicester City v AFC Bournemouth
- Manchester United v Watford
- West Ham United v Everton (1730 KO)
Brighton v Southampton
There has been a definite improvement at Southampton since Ralph Hasenhuttl's arrival, with six Premier League wins giving them a real chance of survival.
They are not out of danger yet though, going into the weekend just two points clear of the drop and a win here could contribute to the confirmation of Huddersfield's relegation.
Must read for Southampton fans: Club hero Matt Le Tissier on survival and who could go down
Two wins from three before the international break - the other being a hard-fought 3-2 defeat at Man United - have set them up nicely for the final sprint to the end of the season and they can get a win when they travel to FA Cup semi-finalists Brighton.
Chris Hughton's side are just five points clear of safety and have already lost as many games at home as they did last season. They may have also won two of their last three in the Premier League, but they are there for the taking on Saturday afternoon with the Seagulls struggling for consistency.
The visitors can come back from the international break ready to hit the ground running and odds at a shade above 2/1 for them to score at least two goals looks like a good option here.
Hasenhuttl's men have unlocked their goalscoring potential by netting two or more in their last three league outings and Brighton are often guilty of defensive lapses, which showed in last month's home defeat to Burnley.
There is a worry the Saints' three-week break will have been too long and they will be heavy legged, but the intensity under their Austrian boss means the rest should have done them good. They need the win slightly more and are continuing to improve, so they can find the back of the net twice and triumph at the Amex.
Should that not tickle your fancy, the 6/4 on Southampton to take more corners looks a nice price. Brighton have the league's second-lowest corner count and the visitors could have more chances which in turn could lead to a higher set piece count.
Super 6 prediction: Brighton 1-2 Southampton (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Best bet: Southampton to score 2+ goals at 9/4
Opta facts
- Brighton have won just four of their last 30 matches against Southampton in all competitions (D12 L14).
- All three Premier League meetings between Brighton and Southampton have ended as a draw. Only three previous Premier League fixtures have ended as a draw in their first four meetings – Arsenal vs QPR, Southampton vs Stoke City and Bournemouth vs Watford.
- Brighton have lost once at home against Southampton this season, losing 0-1 in the EFL Cup; only Derby County in 2013-14 have won twice away at the Amex in a single season against the Seagulls.
- Brighton have won their last two Premier League games, more than they had in their previous 12 combined (W1 D3 L8).
- Southampton have lost their last two Premier League away games – they’re yet to lose three in a row on the road under Ralph Hasenhüttl.
- Southampton have scored a league-high ratio 32% of their Premier League goals from outside the box so far this season (11/34).
- Southampton have lost more points from leading positions in the Premier League than any other side this season (20), including dropping five points over their last three away games in the competition.
- Southampton striker Charlie Austin has scored more goals in all competitions against Brighton (7) than he has against any other side since his debut in the Football League in October 2009.
- After scoring in six of his first seven league appearances at home this season, Brighton’s Glenn Murray has failed to score in his last seven at home in the Premier League. His last goal at the Amex Stadium was in December vs Crystal Palace.
- James Ward-Prowse has scored in his last three Premier League games for Southampton – the last player to score in four in a row for Saints was Jay Rodriguez in March 2014.
Burnley v Wolves
The alarm bells will be ringing around Turf Moor after a poor run which has seen Burnley drop to within two points of the relegation zone.
Sean Dyche's side had the international break come at an ideal time after four successive defeats and it will have given them a chance to regroup with seven games to save their top-flight status.
Although their home ground is no longer the fortress it once was, they have got some good results there this term, beating Tottenham and West Ham, while stopping Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's winning start at Man United by drawing at Old Trafford.
They will take confidence from looking at Wolves' record against lesser outfits. Nuno Espirito Santo's men were beaten at Huddersfield last month, while they have lost to Crystal Palace, Cardiff and Brighton this term and only narrowly beat Burnley 1-0 in the reverse fixture.
They have lost just once in their last nine in all competitions but with the international break and upcoming FA Cup semi-final on the horizon, they could be forgiven for taking their eye off the ball and Burnley can capitalise.
The price on them in a double chance or draw no bet is not too appealing, but there is a case for a home win and the general price of around 7/5 makes it worth a small play, but we will bump it up to just under 3s by throwing under 3.5 total goals into the mix.
Super 6 prediction: Burnley 1-0 Wolves (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Best bet: Burnley to win and under 3.5 total goals at 11/4
Opta facts
- Burnley are winless in their last nine top-flight home matches against Wolves (W0 D4 L5), with the only previous Premier League meeting at Turf Moor ending 2-1 to Wolves in March 2010.
- Wolves have a 100% win record against Burnley in the Premier League, winning all three matches against the Clarets (two in 2009-10 and this season’s reverse fixture).
- Wolves have won their last seven top-flight matches against Burnley – they’ve only had a longer winning run in the top-flight against Birmingham (10 between 1957-1962).
- Burnley have conceded 10 goals in the 90th minute of their Premier League games this season – no team has ever conceded more in a single campaign (also 10 for Cardiff City in 2013-14 and Hull City in 2016-17, both of whom were relegated).
- Wolves have lost only one of their last eight Premier League games (W4 D3), against Huddersfield in February. However, they’ve also won only one of their last five in the competition (D3 L1).
- After keeping a clean sheet in two of their first four away league games this season, Wolves have conceded in each of their last 11 on the road.
- Burnley lost 1-2 to Leicester City in their last match despite the Foxes receiving a red card; the Clarets are one of four teams in Premier League history to lose more games than they’ve won when an opponent has received a red card (W5 D3 L7), along with Huddersfield, QPR and Sheffield United.
- Raúl Jiménez has scored six of Wolves’ last 10 Premier League goals, with three of those strikes being assisted by Diogo Jota.
- Burnley’s Dwight McNeil has been directly involved in six Premier League goals this season (2 goals, 4 assists). Only Ryan Sessegnon (7) has been involved in more as a teenager in the competition this term.
- Raúl Jiménez has had a hand in 18 goals in 30 Premier League games for Wolves (12 goals, 6 assists); the last player to reach 20 goal involvements for a newly-promoted team in a season was Troy Deeney in 2015-16 for Watford (13 goals, 7 assists).
Crystal Palace v Huddersfield
It's quite ironic how Huddersfield kicked off their Premier League experience in 2017/18 with a win at Crystal Palace, and defeat on Saturday could officially confirm their relegation to complete the full circle.
A loss at Selhurst Park, coupled with wins for Burnley and Southampton, would see the West Yorkshire side officially consigned to Sky Bet Championship football next season.
Their shock win at Wolves, which gave Jan Siewert a glimmer of hope, seems a long time ago now with three successive defeats for Town since then.
Palace, who lost to Watford in the FA Cup quarter-final before the international break, have won three of their last six and will be keen themselves to move further clear of the drop. Roy Hodgson's Eagles are just five points above Cardiff in 18th, which is largely down to a poor winless run over October and November.
Palace undoubtedly have the quality to stay up and they should be winning games like this.
The most likely scorer is one of Michy Batshuayi, Wilfried Zaha or Luka Milivojevic - you can back both Batshuayi and Zaha to find the back of the net at 6/1 with Sky Bet. But we are going for Zaha in a score-and-win.
It is worth waiting until the confirmed teams, though - the forward was sent home by Ivory Coast in the international break as they did not want to risk his hamstring injury which was sustained in the Eagles' Premier League loss to Brighton.
There is a chance he will not feature, but the rest will have done him good and should he start the 2/1 price in a score-and-win double is worth a look.
He has scored five in his last six Premier League appearances and averages over two shots per game in the league, 13 in his last five outings. He can help Palace to victory against a Huddersfield side that is essentially down and out.
Super 6 prediction: Crystal Palace 2-0 Huddersfield (Sky Bet odds: 9/2)
Best bet: Wilfried Zaha to score and Palace to win at 2/1
Opta facts
- Since losing 0-3 to Huddersfield Town on the opening weekend of the 2017-18 season, Crystal Palace have won their last three games against the Terriers in all competitions without conceding a goal.
- Huddersfield have never registered consecutive away league victories against Crystal Palace, although they are unbeaten there in the top-flight (P3 W2 D1 L0).
- The home side has never scored a goal in top-flight fixtures between Crystal Palace and Huddersfield – all 12 goals have been scored by the away side in seven previous meetings.
- Since scoring three times against Crystal Palace in their first away Premier League game, Huddersfield have scored just 20 away league goals in 33 games – although 15% of those goals came in their last away match, a 3-4 defeat to West Ham United.
- Only Huddersfield have won fewer points (8) and scored fewer goals (7) in home Premier League games than Crystal Palace this season (13 points, 11 goals).
- Crystal Palace’s Selhurst Park has seen fewer league goals scored than any other Premier League ground this season (28), with Manchester United the only side to score more than twice in a game there so far this season (3).
- Despite only making his Premier League debut on February 2nd, Karlan Grant is Huddersfield Town’s joint-top league scorer this season with three goals.
- Luka Milivojevic has scored 45% of Crystal Palace’s home Premier League goals this season (5/11). The Serbian is the only player to score more than once at Selhurst Park for the Eagles this term.
- Crystal Palace manager Roy Hodgson has won three games in all competitions against Huddersfield as Eagles boss – only against Leicester (4) has he won more with Palace.
- Huddersfield boss Jan Siewert could become the first permanent Premier League manager to lose his first five away matches in the competition since Ole Gunnar Solskjær in 2013-14, when the Norwegian was Cardiff City manager.
Leicester v Bournemouth
A match worth adding to your BTTS coupon, but not worth backing alone due to the odds-on price, goals are expected in this one between sides who play an exciting brand of football.
The hosts are looking to keep up momentum after recording back-to-back victories under Brendan Rodgers and there could be value in going for the straight forward Leicester to win and BTTS at just under 5/2.
But the preferred option for this match is to avoid the result and to look at a goalscorer who is priced generously at 13/5 anytime.
James Maddison ended a 16-match goal drought when he netted in the comeback at Burnley before the international break and the summer signing can add to his six-goal tally here.
He averages over two shots per game in the Premier League this term and should find plenty of space on the edge of the box as Leicester's front three look to stretch the Cherries defence.
The Foxes are in with a chance of finishing best of the rest so could do with a win here. We expect them to collect all three points, so Maddison in a score-and-win at 10/3 is appealing, but sticking with him anytime is the way to go here.
Super 6 prediction: Leicester 2-1 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Best bet: James Maddison to score anytime at 13/5
Opta facts
- Leicester City have never beaten Bournemouth in the Premier League in seven attempts (P7 W0 D5 L2), facing the Cherries more often without winning than any other opponent in the competition.
- Bournemouth are winless in five away league visits to Leicester (W0 D3 L2) since a 1-0 win on Boxing Day in 1988 under Harry Redknapp.
- Among Premier League fixtures to have played at least five times, only Bournemouth vs Watford (75%) has a higher percentage of draws than Bournemouth vs Leicester (71%), with five of the seven previous meetings ending level.
- Leicester are looking to win three consecutive Premier League home games for the first time since May 2017, when they won their first five under Craig Shakespeare.
- After a run of nine successive away league defeats, Bournemouth won their last Premier League game on the road. None of their last 18 away games in the Premier League have finished level (W5 D0 L13).
- Bournemouth haven’t won any of their last 12 Premier League games in which they’ve conceded a goal (D3 L9) since beating Huddersfield 2-1 in December. Only Huddersfield themselves (33 games) are on a longer such run among teams currently in the competition.
- Leicester have been shown a league-high five red cards in the Premier League this season, while Bournemouth’s opponents have had more sendings off than any other side in the division this term (6).
- Bournemouth boss Eddie Howe is winless in seven away league visits to Leicester City during his managerial career (W0 D4 L3).
- Leicester manager Brendan Rodgers has won all three of his games in all competitions against Bournemouth – the only teams he has a better 100% win record against in his career are Hamilton Academical (9 wins), Fulham (7) and Coventry City (5).
- Bournemouth midfielder Jefferson Lerma has received 11 yellow cards in the Premier League this season, more than any other player; the last player to receive more in his debut season in the competition was Cheick Tioté in 2010-11 (14 yellow cards).
Man United v Watford
A fairly simple one for the Old Trafford clash, with goal intervals under the spotlight, and this is probably the most preferred bet from the 3pm games.
The days leading up to the clash have been around Ole Gunnar Solkskjaer's permanent appointment as Manchester United manager and he will be keen to start his official reign with a victory in front of his own fans.
And he probably will, but there is little value in that. The one market that catches the eye is for the highest scoring half to be the second period. It may be only at evens, but it has particular appeal once you look at how the game could pan out.
FA Cup semi-finalists Watford have probably gone under the radar this term, with Wolves generally taking all the plaudits outside the top six.
They have won five of their last seven in all competitions and sit eighth in the table. You would expect Javi Gracia's side to travel north looking to make it as difficult as possible in the first half before opening it up and going for it in the second.
This shows from their games against other members of the so-called 'big six' - with the highest scoring half coming after the interval in their most recent games against Man City, Liverpool, Tottenham, Chelsea and Arsenal.
While Man United will be keen to burst out of the blocks, Watford can keep them at bay and save the goals for the second half. Simple, but hopefully effective.
Super 6 prediction: Man United 2-0 Watford (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Best bet: Highest scoring half - second at evens
Opta facts
- Manchester United have won 10 of their 11 Premier League matches against Watford, losing the other in September 2016.
- Watford are winless in all 11 away league visits to Manchester United (W0 D2 L9); they have won once at Old Trafford against the Red Devils, a 2-1 victory in the League Cup in October 1978.
- In top-flight history, the only team to play more away matches against Manchester United without winning than Watford (11) are Luton Town (15 matches between 1955 and 1991).
- Watford have lost 16 of their last 17 away games in Manchester (vs Man Utd and Man City), since a 2-1 win against the Citizens in April 1987.
- Manchester United lost their first league match under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer last time out against Arsenal. They’ve not lost consecutive league games since August.
- Manchester United have kept just two home clean sheets in the Premier League this season – only Fulham have kept fewer (1).
- Since their return to the Premier League in 2015, Watford have taken just four points from 66 available away against ‘big six’ sides (W1 D1 L20), losing the last 13 in a row. The exceptions were a 2-2 draw at Chelsea in December 2015 and a 2-1 win at Arsenal in January 2017.
- Man Utd haven’t lost three consecutive games in all competitions since September 2016, the third game of which was a 1-3 defeat against Watford.
- Watford’s Gerard Deulofeu has had a hand in six goals in his last four Premier League games (4 goals, 2 assists). 41% of the Spaniard’s total goal involvements in the competition have come in his last 21 games this season (12/29).
- Man Utd duo Marcus Rashford and Anthony Martial have scored nine Premier League goals each this season, with Romelu Lukaku and Paul Pogba having already reached double figures. The last time the Red Devils had three players reach 10 Premier League goals was 2012-13 (Hernandez, Rooney, van Persie), while the last time they had four reach double figures was 1995-96 (Scholes, Cole, Giggs, Cantona).
Odds correct as of 1800 GMT on 28/03/19
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