Premier League betting tips: Previews, Super 6 predictions & best bets for Saturday's 3pm kick-offs
Mark your card for Saturday's 3pm kick-offs in the Premier League with the best bets, Super 6 predictions and top stats for each game.
Recommended bets
1pt Man City to be leading at Bournemouth after 30 minutes at 23/20
1pt Double chance - Huddersfield/draw v Brighton at 13/12
1pt Michy Batshuayi to score anytime v Burnley at 11/4
1pt Highest scoring half in Wolves v Cardiff - second at 29/25
For advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Fixtures
- Tottenham v Arsenal (1230)
- AFC Bournemouth v Manchester City
- Brighton and Hove Albion v Huddersfield Town
- Burnley v Crystal Palace
- Manchester United v Southampton
- Wolves v Cardiff
- West Ham v Newcastle (1730)
Bournemouth v Man City
Manchester City play their third game in seven days as they make the trip to the south coast to maintain the pressure on Liverpool.
Some good results and performances at the Vitality, such as hitting four past Chelsea last month, will give Bournemouth confidence and City will be well aware. The extra motivation though is getting the win and going top for at least 24 hours before the Reds get underway in the Merseyside derby.
The Cherries will be hoping to bounce back after shipping five at Arsenal, but it is hard to see them getting anything against a focused and rotated City side.
Fernandinho will again be a big miss, but they have the quality here and a good price to back is the visitors to be leading after 30 minutes.
The Sky Blues are quick starters and they have scored an impressive 27 of their 75 Premier League goals in the opening half hour, conceding just four. The likes of Man United, Liverpool and Arsenal have all scored against Eddie Howe's side recently in the same time bracket.
Therefore, the 23/20 on offer for City to be leading at this stage of the game looks excellent value.
Super 6 prediction: Bournemouth 1-4 Man City (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)
Best bet: Man City to be leading after 30 minutes at 23/20
Opta facts
- Bournemouth have never beaten Manchester City in 13 previous league meetings (W0 D2 L11).
- Manchester City have won all seven Premier League meetings with Bournemouth, scoring 24 goals and conceding just three.
- Manchester City’s 100%-win record in seven games against Bournemouth is the best in Premier League history and joint-best in top-flight history, along with Brighton & Hove Albion against Wolves (also seven wins out of seven).
- Bournemouth have lost 10 of their last 12 home Premier League games against ‘big six’ opponents, beating Arsenal in January 2018 (2-1) and Chelsea in their last such game (4-0).
- Man City have lost three of their last six Premier League away games (W3), more than they had in their previous 34 on the road (W26 D6 L2).
- Man City have won all six of their Premier League games on the south coast under Pep Guardiola, with their last such defeat coming at Southampton in May 2016.
- Man City have won their last four Premier League games, winning the last three by an aggregate score of 9-0. They last won four in a row without conceding in September 2017.
- Manchester City’s Raheem Sterling has scored in all six Premier League matches against Bournemouth; he could become the fourth player to score in seven consecutively against an opponent, and the first since Romelu Lukaku in October 2016 against West Ham.
- Man City’s Sergio Aguero is the Premier League’s top scorer this season with 18 goals. However, just three of these have come away from home.
- Bournemouth’s Josh King has had a hand in five goals in his last three Premier League home games, scoring four and assisting one.
Brighton v Huddersfield
Huddersfield secured a first win under Jan Siewart's management on Tuesday to give them a fighting chance of avoiding the Premier League drop.
The German knows how slim their chances are but he is up for the fight, which you could see with his passionate celebration as they completed the double over Wolves.
Performances have not necessarily been an issue for the Terriers this season, they have just been missing a clinical finisher in the final third, with just 15 goals in 28 Premier League games. That's 10 less than the next worst.
But they can take plenty of confidence from that match when they travel to the Amex to face a Brighton side with just one win in their last nine in all competitions.
Town can use that spring in their step to return to West Yorkshire with at least a point - and the odds-against price available on them in a double chance is too good to miss.
Although they are FA Cup quarter-finalists, Brighton have been far too inconsistent since the start of December and Huddersfield can take advantage of that by scraping a low-scoring victory.
Super 6 prediction: Brighton 0-1 Huddersfield (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Best bet: Double chance - Huddersfield/draw at 13/12
Opta facts
- Brighton are unbeaten in six home league meetings with Huddersfield Town (W3 D3 L0) since a 2-3 defeat in League One in April 2011.
- No team have played more league matches against Brighton at the Amex Stadium without winning than Huddersfield Town (6, level with Leeds United).
- Brighton are winless in three home Premier League games (W0 D1 L2), last enduring a longer run between October and December 2017 (six games).
- Since 2011-12, when the Amex Stadium opened, Yorkshire teams have won just two of 30 visits there in league football (including play-offs), with Barnsley winning 2-1 in December 2013 and Sheffield Wednesday winning 1-0 in August 2014 (W2 D10 L18).
- Brighton haven’t lost consecutive home league matches in the same season since losing three in a row in the Championship in January 2016.
- Huddersfield Town defeated Wolves 1-0 in midweek and will be looking to win consecutive Premier League matches for the first time in over a year (February 24th 2018, the last time).
- Huddersfield haven’t scored a goal in their last five league matches played in March, including all four in the Premier League last season.
- Brighton have lost eight of their last 12 Premier League games (W1 D3), losing five of their last six (D1).
- Brighton have won just one of their nine Premier League games against teams starting the day in the bottom three (W1 D3 L5), losing their last three in a row.
- Huddersfield striker Steve Mounie has been involved in four of Huddersfield’s last five Premier League goals (2 goals, 2 assists).
Burnley v Crystal Palace
A meeting between two sides clear of the relegation fight for now and you would expect it to stay that way. They are both on 30 points, five clear of 18th-place Cardiff and that is down to strong starts to the calendar year.
Both have been on great runs, both lost in midweek, and Roy Hodgson's Eagles are slight favourites to win at Turf Moor.
They were unbeaten in six before losing at home to Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's in-form Man United and this is a great opportunity to bounce back. Confidence should not be knocked too much, with their last away outing fresh in their memory - last week's 4-1 win at Leicester, which we tipped in draw no bet.
Wilfried Zaha has been firing again, Michi Batshuayi is off the mark and the south Londoners have found their flow, so the 7/4 available on them to win looks a good price, chucking in over 1.5 total goals into the equation to get it above 2/1.
That should take nothing away from Burnley, whose defeat at St James' Park was their first in the Premier League since Boxing Day, but all runs come to an end and, providing Palace turn up, the visitors should get the better of them in this contest.
A preferred option to back though is a goalscorer at nearly 3/1, a price that looks generous considering the dangers we know Belgian forward Batshuayi possesses.
He scored his first Palace goal in that win at Leicester, his full Premier League debut for the club, and is likely to be central in a dangerous front three consisting of himself, Zaha and Andros Townsend.
Granted, his goal was slightly lucky after James McArthur's shot, but that's what you need to get off the mark. The Chelsea loanee has had 12 shots in his four appearances in a Palace shirt, two of them as a substitute, and he can add to his tally here.
Super 6 prediction: Burnley 1-2 Crystal Palace (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Best bet: Michy Batshuayi to score anytime at 11/4
Opta facts
- Burnley have lost their last two Premier League games against Crystal Palace, though both have been at Selhurst Park.
- Crystal Palace have won just one of their last 10 away league visits to Turf Moor against Burnley (W1 D4 L5), a 3-2 win in January 2015.
- Burnley’s midweek Premier League 0-2 defeat at Newcastle United ended an eight-game unbeaten run in the competition (W5 D3 L0); which was their longest-ever unbeaten streak in the Premier League.
- Burnley are unbeaten in four Premier League games at Turf Moor; winning three and drawing one. All three wins in this run have come against London clubs: West Ham United, Fulham and Tottenham Hotspur.
- Crystal Palace have won a league-high share 56.7% of their Premier League points away from home this season (17/30).
- Burnley have won just three of their last 19 Premier League matches when they’ve made a change to their starting XI (D2 L14) but are unbeaten in their last eight when they’ve named an unchanged side (W5 D3).
- Burnley’s last 49 Premier League goals have all been scored inside the box – the last team to have a longer run were Crystal Palace (56 between September 2016 and December 2017).
- All four of Sean Dyche’s league wins against Crystal Palace as Burnley boss have come against different managers (Holloway, Pardew, Allardyce, De Boer).
- Burnley’s last eight Premier League goals have been scored by either Chris Wood or Ashley Barnes (four each).
- Crystal Palace’s Wilfried Zaha has had a hand in five goals in his last five Premier League games (4 goals, 1 assist).
Man United v Southampton
Man United defied a midweek injury crisis to win at Crystal Palace - a record ninth in a row away from home - as Ole Gunnar Solskjaer continues to enjoy life at the helm.
The availability of his players could be slightly better for the visit of Southampton, who moved out of the drop zone on Wednesday after beating Fulham.
The Selhurst Park trip looked like a perfect time to call a United defeat but his side continue to thrive under his leadership and with the Old Trafford crowd behind them it is hard to see a shock Saints victory here. The Red Devils have suffered the odd surprise result at home in previous years, but the 7/1 general price shows the task in hand for Ralph Hasenhuttl.
The preference though is to avoid the results and look at the goalscorer market. It may be fairly simple, but Paul Pogba is two games without a goal now and the 6/4 price on the Frenchman anytime is too good to turn down.
He has scored eight and assisted six in 11 Premier League appearances under Solskjaer and averages over three shots per game. He has flourished under the Norwegian on the left of a midfield diamond and is the influential player we expected when he made his big-money return to England in 2016.
He likes scoring and playing up to the crowd at Old Trafford and it is difficult to argue against him finding the back of the net against the Saints, who will make it difficult under the well-organised Hasenhuttl.
Super 6 prediction: Man United 2-1 Southampton (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Best bet: Paul Pogba to score anytime at 6/4
Opta facts
- Manchester United have won just one of their five home Premier League games against Southampton since Sir Alex Ferguson retired (W1 D2 L2) – under Ferguson, they won 13 out of 14 against the Saints at Old Trafford (D1).
- Southampton have drawn their last two league matches against Man Utd; they haven’t avoided defeat in three consecutively against them since May 1989 (five games).
- Since the 2013-14 campaign, only Manchester City and West Bromwich Albion (3) have won more away Premier League games at Old Trafford than Southampton (2).
- In Premier League history, Manchester United have come from behind to win eight matches against Southampton, a joint-record in the competition with Manchester United also coming from behind eight times to win against Newcastle and Chelsea doing so against Sunderland.
- Southampton have won just one of their last 33 Premier League games against ‘big six’ opponents (D9 L23), beating Arsenal 3-2 in December.
- Since Ole Gunnar Solskjaer took charge, Man Utd have won at least five more Premier League points than any other side (29).
- Manchester United striker Romelu Lukaku has been involved in nine goals in his last 10 Premier League appearances against Southampton (7 goals, 2 assists), though both his goals against Saints for Man Utd have been scored away from home.
- Romelu Lukaku’s brace against Crystal Palace for Man Utd last time out means the Belgian has now scored at least 10 goals in each of his last seven seasons in the Premier League.
- Southampton’s James Ward-Prowse has scored four Premier League goals this season – he’s never scored more in a single campaign in the competition.
- Man Utd’s Paul Pogba has recorded 20 Premier League goal involvements this season (11 goals, 9 assists), matching his best return in a single campaign in the top five European leagues (8 goals, 12 assists in 2015-16).
Wolves v Cardiff
The 7/1 price on Cardiff to win suggests how difficult it will be on Saturday, but the Bluebirds won the reverse fixture in South Wales and Wolves have dropped 21 points in total at Molineux this season.
Nuno Espirito Santo's side have not won in their last three Premier League outings, but coming up against a struggling City side could provide them with a great opportunity to bounce back as they look to stay top of the pack outside the top six.
Cardiff have conceded an astonishing eight goals in their last two games and Neil Warnock will be keen to keep things tight at the back as his side sit in the bottom three.
The preference is to avoid the result here and to go with the highest scoring half. The Bluebirds have conceded 32, scoring 18, in the second half of Premier League games this term, while Wolves have a positive record with 26 of their 35 goals coming after the interval.
At above 11/10 to see more goals in the second half, you have a nicely priced bet without having to worry about the full-time result.
Super 6 prediction: Wolves 2-0 Cardiff (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Best bet: Highest scoring half - second at 29/25
Opta facts
- Wolves have lost five of their last seven league matches against Cardiff (W2), losing the reverse fixture at the Cardiff City Stadium in November.
- Cardiff City, 2-1 winners at Molineux in August 2017, are looking to win consecutive away league matches against Wolves for the first time since February 1988.
- Wolves have won four of their last five home matches in all competitions (D1), as many as they’d won in their first 12 games at Molineux this season (W4 D3 L5).
- Cardiff have won two of their last four away Premier League games (L2) – as many as in their first 28 in the competition (W2 D6 L20).
- Wolves haven’t lost consecutive matches in all competitions since November 2018, when they lost against Huddersfield and Cardiff.
- Cardiff have conceded at least three goals in 11 different Premier League games this season, more than any other side.
- Wolves failed to register a shot on target in their 0-1 defeat to Huddersfield, only the third time they had failed to do so in a league match under Nuno Espirito Santo (also against Barnsley in January 2018 and Man City in January 2019).
- Cardiff City have registered a pass accuracy of just 64.2% this season, the lowest tally by a Premier League team in a season since Stoke City in 2010-11 (64%).
- Nuno Espirito Santo’s first defeat as Wolves boss was against Cardiff City – the Bluebirds are one of only two teams he has lost more than once against as Wolves boss, along with Huddersfield Town.
- Cardiff boss Neil Warnock’s only previous top-flight league visit to Wolves came in September 2011 as QPR manager, a 3-0 victory – it remains Warnock’s biggest away top-flight victory in 71 such games.
Odds correct as of 1800 GMT on 28/02/19
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