2pt Under 2.5 Goals at 7/10 (William Hill)
Rotherham slumped to a 1-0 defeat away at Norwich at the weekend, and while Carrow Road isn’t an easy place to visit, the result condemned the club to their third consecutive defeat.
They failed to score in two of those games, but it is worth noting those matches were against two sides at the top of the Championship – Norwich and Bournemouth.
The Millers have otherwise excelled in attack this season, creating an average of 1.31 expected goals for (xGF) per game, and it’s actually their failures in defence that explains their current predicament.
However, despite recording respectable numbers this term, Rotherham may struggle for inspiration against a rapidly improving Nottingham Forest side.
Chris Hughton has Forest trending in a positive direction, and the former Brighton and Newcastle United man deserves praise for their defensive transformation.
Forest have allowed an outstanding average of 0.86 xGA per game across their last 10 fixtures, and if they can perform at those levels consistently, they should be in play-off contention next campaign.
They’ve kept five clean sheets through that run, too, and Infogol’s expected league table, which is based on expected points (xP), ranks Forest as high as ninth.
This defensive foundation will be vital for long-term success but, regarding the immediate future, Forest are creating 1.18 xGF per game.
Notably, they often win games by small margins, just edging tight contests, and it seems likely this game could develop into that mould once again.
I’m not interested in siding with Forest, though, as their away record is questionable, and I’m consequently highlighting UNDER 2.5 GOALS at 7/10 as my recommended bet, with the visitors set to dictate the pace of this clash to their liking.
Score prediction: Rotherham 0-1 Nottingham Forest (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Odds correct at 16.25 GMT (22/02/21)
We are committed in our support of responsible gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133, or visit begambleaware.org.