Roma v Liverpool: A tactical preview & betting for Champions League semi-final in Rome
They've done it once before, but how can Roma pull off another Champions League upset and stun Liverpool? We look at what they need to do in Rome.
With ten minutes to go in the first leg at Anfield Liverpool were 1/100 to make the Champions League final, but those two late goals have given Roma a glimmer of hope.
The Reds are still 1/16 to go to Kiev, with Roma 8/1 shots but only in the last round they overturned a similar deficit with a 3-0 win over Barcelona. It’s 33/1 that lightning strikes twice at the Stadio Olimpico.
It’s not beyond the realms of possibility, but while people question whether Roma can repeat the trick, let’s look at how they could do it.
Paul Higham looks at the tactics Roma will need to get right to pull off another escapology act, and how Liverpool can kill off the tie once and for all.
Test Loris Karius
The young German has improved since being given the gloves full time, but he’s still had some wobbles in the last couple of Champions League games. In the second leg at City he was too eager to play the ball out from the back in the build-up to City’s early goal.
The Stadio Olimpico atmosphere will be up several notches from the Etihad and Karius will have to calm his nerves a lot more to avoid giving Roma anything early on.
In the first leg at Anfield Karius flapped at a Kolorov effort that hit the bar, and the jury is still largely out on him on the big stage. This is by far his biggest test and if Roma have any sense they’ll be testing him out with shots and crosses early and often.
Edin Dzeko is 6/1 to score a header in the match and that will be the way Roma will try to get the better of any Karius nerves.
Roma need a fast start to keep the crowd involved
The renowned Anfield atmosphere did the trick again in the first leg, but don’t think for a minute there won’t be a white-hot reception awaiting Liverpool inside the Stadio Olimpico.
The presence of a running track around the famous old ground does nothing to diminish the intense atmosphere Roma’s fans will create, especially knowing what their team did against Barcelona.
Roma actually started the game at Anfield well and a similar start in Rome will no doubt keep the crowd involved in the game, Dzeko scored after six minutes agaist Barcelona and that'd do nicely for Roma - he's 12/1 to score inside the first 10 minutes again on Wednesday.
Managers need to get selections and substitutions right
Eusebio Di Francesco looked like a rabbit in the headlights at Anfield and as goals started to fly in he cut a frustrated figure on the sidelines, arguing with players and waving his hands around almost in a daze.
His tactics, especially in defence were baffling. His back three held an astonishingly high line given Salah and Mane’s pace to get in behind and Liverpool repeatedly broke free with chips over the top. If Roma play that way again a Liverpool away goal is there for the taking.
Roma looked much better when substitutes Diego Perotti and Patrik Schick came on in the second half but they still persisted with that high line for far too long, Di Francesco will have to be sharper in the second leg.
Klopp’s night was not completely perfect either, withdrawing Salah with 15 minutes to go seemed to totally take the wind out of Liverpool’s sails – and for this game he'll be without his right-hand man Zeljko Buvac which could make a huge difference.
Roma should attack down the wings & feed Dzeko
Dzeko was clinical at Anfield with one real chance and one goal, benefitting from a Dejan Lovren error. The Reds will have to watch him like a hawk in the second leg, and more importantly try to cut off his supply line at source.
Dzeko scoed first in the Barcelona game to get the ball rolling in their last comeback, he's 4/1 to repeat the trick against Liverpool and is certainly the big danger.
Roma had great joy at the end of the first leg getting the ball wide and firing in dangerous crosses for Dzeko and lively substitute Schick, so full backs Andy Robertson and Trent Alexander-Arnold will have to be on their toes to try and stop the crosses coming in.
Alexander-Arnold in particular needs another big game – he came unstuck at Manchester United and Crystal Palace when targeted with long balls and not quite reading flick-ons properly, so that part of the game will be key to stopping the Italians building momentum.
Can Roma stop Salah this time?
You’d have thought Roma had never seen Salah play football before, let alone been part of their team for two years, given the way they defended against him last week. Giving him space in behind, and allowing him to cut in on that wand of a left foot are both criminal ways to defend against the ‘Egyptian king’.
He's 7/2 to score first in Rome, and 8/11 to score anytime in the game - after the way Roma defended against him at Anfield that's no surprise.
Federico Fazio was awful and Juan Jesus was nullified after an early booking – these two will have to improve greatly, if both play, in the second leg. It’ll be a different type of game as Roma will have more of the ball, but Liverpool are one of the best in Europe on the counter attack.
The warning signs are there…
How can Liverpool prevent a Roma comeback?
It’s testament to Klopp’s side that they’ll play the second legs of both the Champions League quarter-final and semi-final with a three-goal lead. It’s a remarkable achievement and that second leg at City will have taught them a lot about how to go about their business.
The first half at the Etihad they allowed City to force the pace and come on to them, in Rome they’ll look to play more like the second half in Manchester and press the hosts and look to break as often as possible.
A goal may not totally kill the game, Roma will still go through with a 4-1 win, but an early strike will certainly be an early dagger for the home side, and home crowd, to recover from.
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