When Leicester had played 20 league games last season, they were third, nine points ahead of Chelsea. A year earlier, they were second, 11 clear of Manchester United.
And if they can lament the fact they were overhauled in races for the Champions League places by teams who trailed far behind them, there was a recurring theme: Brendan Rodgers’ team were early-season pacesetters.
Not now. Leicester stand 10th. In other tables, they are much worse than that.
Statistically, they are only a top team in the middle third of games, when their record – scoring 14, conceding nine – is bettered only by the top three. They have lost some of their strengths.
Leicester were strong finishers last season. In the final 20 minutes of games, they scored 25 goals and conceded just 14. Now that stands at 9-9. They have lost five points from winning positions in their last two games by conceding late on.
Even last season, they did not always make great starts; they scored and conceded 16 in the first half-hour of games. This season, they have begun worse – scoring seven and conceding 15 – and displayed less aptitude for repairing the early damage.
Last season, they took 20 points, second only to Manchester United, from losing positions. So far this season, they only have six.
Why have Leicester been so bad defensively?
What is Challenge intensity?
- Challenge intensity is the number of duels, tackles and interceptions per minute of opponent possession.
But the roots of their difficulties are defensive, with injuries explaining inconsistency of selection. They have conceded 37 goals already, only four fewer than in the whole of 2019-20.
Even that total may be flattering. Their expected goals against (xGA) is 40.8, the third highest in the division, suggesting Kasper Schmeichel has saved them almost four goals.
The numbers reflect quality of chances but the quantity is up, too.
Last season, Leicester conceded the fifth lowest number of shots on target, at 134. Now they have allowed the fifth most, at 98. They are on course to allow opponents 186 shots on target, 60 more than in 2019-20.
They have gone from being one of the best teams at defending dead-ball situations to the second worst.
They only conceded six set-piece goals in the whole of 2019-20, which rose to 12 last season. Now they have let in 11, behind only Crystal Palace, and at the current rate, will concede 21.
Lack of pressure an issue
There has been a drop-off in elements of their defending. They made the second and third most tackles in the last two seasons. Now they are ninth.
They are not always a high-pressing team but two seasons ago, Leicester made the most tackles in the middle third of the pitch. Now they are 10th.
Last season, 31.7 percent of their pressures were successful, the second most. Now that has dropped to 28.6, putting them 15th.
They recovered the fourth highest number of loose balls last season and the fourth lowest this season. Wilfred Ndidi is the only Leicester player in the top 47 in the division in the combined chart for tackles and interceptions.
Foxes now a 'poorer side on the ball'
If Leicester are a worse team out of possession, they are a poorer side on the ball as well.
Their pass completion rate in the last two seasons was 81.8 and 81.3 percent. Now it is 79.7. Last season, six who played regularly had a completion rate of over 85.2. Now just two do.
The difference is most apparent where it matters most. Leicester completed the fifth most passes into the penalty area in 2019-20. Now they are 15th in that chart.
Leicester are less creative
They ranked seventh for shot-creating actions last season and 17th this season.
Whereas Marc Albrighton completed 16 crosses into the penalty area in open play last season, no one has topped three this season.
Perhaps getting in the box less helps explain one dramatic difference. In attack, they won the most penalties last season (12, scoring 10) and the joint fewest this season (1).
In total, Leicester are only 14th for shots, with 239, though that rises to eighth for efforts on target. They ranked eighth for shots last season and fourth in the previous year.
With fewer chances, their players’ xG per 95 (expected goals per 95 minutes) has dropped: Jamie Vardy’s from 0.66 to 0.37, Kelechi Iheanacho from 0.51 to 0.29, Harvey Barnes from 0.30 to 0.22.
'Excellent finishing' a saving grace
But Vardy’s (non-penalty) return of a goal every 0.25 shots is the best of his career when records were compiled. So, too, James Maddison’s 0.14 and Youri Tielemans’ 0.12.
They have the best chance-conversion rate in the division, at 14 percent; they have scored 34 goals from an expected goals (xG) of 29.7.
Only Aston Villa have a greater positive difference and Leicester’s five top scorers – Vardy, Maddison, Tielemans, Patson Daka and Ademola Lookman – have all overperformed their xG.
Without excellent finishing, their plight would be worse.
That fine finishing explains why they have already won five league games with a lower xG than the beaten team this season.
If finishing is part of football, the numbers indicate that otherwise Leicester’s overall performance levels put them in the bottom third in the league.
Infogol’s expected points model puts them 16th, albeit with an expected finishing position of 10th. But even 10th is quite a fall from chasing Champions League football.
