Richard Jolly: Is Steven Gerrard learning from Brendan Rodgers' Liverpool mistakes?
In their last game together as Liverpool manager and captain respectively, Brendan Rodgers and Steven Gerrard were 5-0 down at half-time and lost 6-1. That was 2015 and against Stoke.
- Published before Aston Villa's game with Leicester on December 5
Since they have been parted, they have become the only managers since the 19th century to complete a Scottish league campaign undefeated.
Both have swapped the Old Firm for the Midlands and they can renew a managerial rivalry that started in Glasgow on Sunday.
They are tied on one win apiece, each 1-0.
Has Gerrard had a lucky start at Villa?
Aston Villa against Leicester is a clash of a manager in charge for the best part of three years and one who has been at the helm for three games.
If it means there is more data on Rodgers, Gerrard’s start at Villa is notable for their efficiency.
Second-half specialists Villa have four of their five goals after the break, three of them after the 83rd minute.
They have scored five goals from 11 shots on target. They have beaten their xG (expected goals) in all three matches, getting five goals from an xG of 2.06.
So far they have been able to score from three efforts with a six percent probability of going in (Ollie Watkins against Manchester City, both Matt Targett and John McGinn against Crystal Palace), one with a 12 percent chance (Watkins against Brighton) and one with a 25 percent chance (Tyrone Mings against Brighton).
They lost the xG battle to Palace but won the actual game. It suggests their return of six points under Gerrard is flattering.
They have not been a possession team, averaging either 36 or 37 percent of the ball in all three games. Indeed, Villa’s three lowest shares of possession this season have been their three games under Gerrard.
However, they are nonetheless doing better at restricting opponents to fewer good chances than at the end of Dean Smith’s reign.
Their expected goals against (xGA) in the City game was 1.30 whereas, in five of Smith’s last six games, it had been at least 1.93.
What has happened to Leicester's defence?
Leicester’s problems have been in part defensive too. Only three teams have conceded more league goals.
Only Newcastle, Manchester United and Norwich have a higher expected goals against (xGA) than their total of 25.2.
If Villa have improved at restricting the calibre of chances recently, the opposite is true of Leicester.
Their last four opponents have posted an xGA of 2.16 (Southampton), 3.05 (Watford), 2.44 (Chelsea) and 1.79 (Leeds), and three of them are bottom-half sides.
Leicester have conceded at least five shots on target in each of their last seven league games and at least two goals in six of them.
They have not kept a clean sheet since the opening weekend: only they, Watford and Newcastle have not stopped opponents from scoring in that time.
Only Burnley and Newcastle have conceded more shots per game than Leicester; last season they allowed opponents 9.7, the fifth-fewest, whereas now it is up to 15.9.
There have been more shots on target against Leicester (70) than any other club. After 14 games, they are more than halfway to last season’s eventual total of 134.
Leicester conceded 50 goals last season, which may prompt comparisons with the team Rodgers managed and Gerrard captained who almost won Liverpool the 2014 title: they remain the only top-two finisher in the Premier League to let in a half-century.
While Leicester twice finished fifth in the actual table, Rodgers has never had a team who ranked in the top four defensively: City came closest when they let in 41 goals in 2019-20, but that was still more than Sheffield United.
Can Gerrard get one over on Rodgers?
At the moment, Leicester’s salvation is coming partly from their finishing.
They have 22 goals from an xG of 19.3. Only Chelsea, Liverpool and West Ham have beaten their xG by more.
In each of their five league wins, they have beaten their xG by at least 0.45 (against Watford, it was by 1.70).
Jamie Vardy is a major reason why.
Last season, he was an xG underachiever, scoring 15 goals from an expected goals total of 20.96. This season, with nine goals from an xG of 5.45, he has returned to the sort of finishing he displayed during the previous five campaigns, when he always beat his xG.
That James Maddison and Youri Tielemans, the other Leicester players with multiple Premier League goals, are also overachieving statistically, helps.
While Leicester only rank 10th for shots, they are fourth for efforts on target and they have the best percentage (38.8) of shots on target in the division. Only Liverpool can top Leicester’s return of a goal every 0.13 shots.
So Sunday’s meeting feels a test of who can carry on finishing.
The numbers suggest both Gerrard’s Villa and Rodgers’ Leicester may find it harder to score soon and will not keep on taking lesser chances.
But captain and manager of a Liverpool team who scored 101 Premier League goals in a season will each hope their potent finishing carries on in a reunion.
MOST READ FOOTBALL
FOOTBALL TIPS
