Football betting tips: Champions League
1.5pts A penalty awarded in the match at 7/4 (General)
We started the preview of the first leg of this encounter by reminiscing about the unbelievable scenes surrounding Benfica's league stage triumph over Real Madrid just weeks earlier. It was fair to categorise it as an all-time great Champions League moment.
Unfortunately, that outing in Portugal last week will be memorable for the wrong reasons. An allegedly racist comment made to goalscorer Vinícius Júnior by Benfica midfielder Gianluca Prestianni saw the game halted for around ten minutes before play continued.
Prestianni is provisionally suspended for the second leg while investigations are ongoing. Reports also say that Jose Mourinho will not face the media before the game.
Real are heavy favourites for qualification given their current lead and home advantage. They have more than enough quality to get the job done.
They're 1/2 to win in 90 minutes which looks solid enough value for any Wednesday accumulators. They were in control for large parts of the first leg and should have potentially had more than the one goal on their tally.
The Spanish outfit have also won 14 of their last 16 in front of their own supporters. Benfica's recent away form has been patchy.
Rather than take the short price on a home win, the 7/4 available with multiple bookmakers for A PENALTY AWARDED IN THE MATCH is interesting considering the factors.
The first of those is the high number of penalties both sides have been seeing in recent weeks.
Across Benfica's last 15 matches, a penalty has been awarded in eight - seven of which have been in their favour. The same eight in 15 figure applies to Real Madrid.
One of those matches was the 4-2 win to Benfica in the league stage. Real also sit second to Newcastle for penalties scored in this season's competition (and they only took the lead thanks to the two converted against Qarabag).
We also have a referee in Slavko Vincic who has demonstrated that he isn't afraid to make the call. In fact, the Slovenian official has awarded 12 penalties across 23 games this season with a one given in 39% of his outings.
For context, the Premier League average was around 21% last season. Given the significance of a close tie in the second leg, I'll side with one of these teams being given a chance from the spot.
Odds correct at 15:00 GMT (24/02/26)
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