Jake Pearson previews the Champions League round of 16 second leg between Real Madrid and PSG, picking out his best bets and score prediction.
Football betting tips: Champions League
1pt Real Madrid 6+ Shots On Target at 6/5 (Sky Bet)
Real Madrid drawing Paris Saint-Germain in the first knock-out round of this competition had plenty rubbing their hands with glee, two of Europe’s powerhouses facing off to showcase the immeasurable entertainment package that is the UEFA Champions League.
Few people foresaw Carlo Ancelotti setting his team up in order to play out a 0-0 draw at the Parc des Princes though, with Real attempting to stifle their opposition. It nearly worked as well, but for Kylian Mpabbe’s 94th minute winner.
Real were poor in France, surrendering 57% of possession to Mauricio Pochettino’s men, while also failing to create very little in the way of goalscoring opportunities – their xG of 0.14 the lowest they have recorded all season – but they simply cannot afford to be as bad this time around.
The game itself is incredibly difficult to assess, with Real needing to show more ambition, but also wary of leaving space in behind for the likes of Mbappe, Neymar and Lionel Messi.
Real Madrid v PSG (agg: 0-1)
Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Tuesday
TV channel: BT Sport 3
Real 7/5 | Draw 13/5 | PSG 7/4
PSG don’t arrive into this fixture in a great place though, losing two of their last three Ligue 1 matches, both away from home.
In fact, the Parisians have struggled away from the Parc des Princes this season, failing to win any of their Champions League group stage matches on the road, whilst also failing to win half of their league matches away from home.
By contrast, Real Madrid are yet to lose at home in La Liga this season, with their only defeat at the Santiago Bernabéu in all competitions this term coming in the form of their shock defeat to Sheriff back in September.
Los Blancos have progressed significantly since then, now eight points clear at the top of the Spanish top flight, which makes it all the more curious that Ancelotti would adopt such a negative approach in the first leg.
Expect Real to impose themselves much more in this match, and as the need for a goal grows stronger, so will the number of attempts from the home side.
Real average more shots (17.4), and more shots on target (6.7) than any other team in La Liga, while in this season’s Champions League they sit fifth in the same categories (16.3 shots, 6 on target).
Game state is incredibly important when betting on these markets, and with Madrid needing to be in the ascendancy, the number of shots they are likely to take increases.
Worth considering is the fact that PSG have faced the seventh most shots in the Champions League this season, also facing 34 shots on target in the group stage, 17 in their three away matches.
PSG have also had a tendency to attempt to hang on to a lead in this competition, often without success, and reverting to type for the French side could mean they drop deeper and deeper as the game progresses.
Ancelotti's men are without the services of the suspended Casemiro in central midfield, but that in itself could mean the Spaniards adopt a more attacking approach, and a price of 6/5 about 6+ REAL MADRID SHOTS ON TARGET makes appeal considering all the above information.
Real Madrid v PSG best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Real Madrid 6+ Shots On Target at 6/5 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Real Madrid 2-1 PSG (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Odds correct at 1630 GMT (07/03/22)
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