Manchester City travel to German to take on RB Leipzig in their final Champions League group game. Jake Pearson has previewed the fixture and picked out two bets.
Football betting tips: Champions League
1.5pts Under 40 booking points at 5/4 (Sky Bet)
1pt Under 6 Manchester City corners at 10/11 (Sky Bet)
RB Leipzig face Manchester City just two days after parting company with their manager Jesse Marsch.
The German side currently languish in 11th position in the Bundesliga and are unable to qualify for the knock-out stages of the Champions League, four points behind second-place PSG with just a game to go.
It has been a tough season for Leipzig, who lost manager Julian Naglesmann as well as centre-back Dayot Upamecano and captain Marcel Sabitzer to Bayern Munich in the summer, but the results have not really been good enough to this point.
There is still the chance of Europa League football however, with Leipzig needing to equal Club Brugge’s result against PSG to secure third spot in the group – the two sides are currently level on points but the Germans holding the better head-to-head record.
For Manchester City though, this is a dead rubber.
Already through as group winners, this is a good opportunity for Pep Guardiola to rotate his squad with a busy period of matches coming up.
Given the depth of City’s squad, even their second-string side is strong enough to see them priced up as favourites to win this match, even money about the best on offer for an away win.
That is too short a price for a team with no real motivation to win the match though, so searching away from the 1X2 market looks the best way into this fixture from a betting standpoint.
Corners a good avenue for value
Manchester City are the undisputed kings of corners, taking a whopping 129 corners through their 15 Premier League matches this season – an average of 8.6 per game.
Their sustained dominance in matches, along with the vast amount of chances they create – City have averaged 2.3 expected goals for (xGF) in the Premier League this season – play a large part in the amount of corners they win.
They pen the opposition in, camping inside their final third, and the sheer weight of the pressure leads to shots, saves, blocks and ultimately the ball going behind for another corner.
Given it is largely down to City’s relentless pressure that their corner count is so high, it makes sense to go against the grain in a game they do not need to win.
With no incentive to score, Guardiola’s men may be content to simply keep possession of the ball, not showing a deliberate desire to probe.
Consider also, while Leipzig have conceded an average of 4.64 corners per match in the Bundesliga this term, they have conceded almost half the amount at home as they have on the road, averaging just 3.43 corners against at the Red Bull Arena.
Backing UNDER 6 MANCHESTER CITY CORNERS appeals as a sound bet at 10/11.
Mark your card in Germany
Another selection worth chancing, perhaps a little more liberally as well, is UNDER 40 BOOKING POINTS at 5/4.
Leipzig have averaged just 1.5 yellow cards per game in the Bundesliga this season, with that figure moving much closer to the 1 mark when at home.
Similarly, Manchester City have averaged just 1.4 cautions per game in the Premier League this season.
City have picked up seven yellow cards through their five Champions League matches, and there really is no reason for them to pick up any more in this fixture.
There have been fewer than four cards in three of Man City’s five matches in this competition, as well as in 11 of their 15 league matches.
Given this selection is heavily odds-on elsewhere, an odds-against price is too generous to pass up.
RB Leipzig v Manchester City best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Under 40 booking points at 5/4 (Sky Bet)
- 1pt Under 6 Manchester City corners at 10/11 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: RB Leipzig 0-1 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Odds correct at 1400 BST (06/12/21)
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