PSG v Manchester City tips: Champions League preview and best bets
A blockbuster clash in the Champions League on Tuesday night as PSG welcome Manchester City. Tom Carnduff picks out his best bets.
Football betting tips: Champions League
1pt e.w. Joao Cancelo to score first at 40/1 (1/3 1-99) (bet365)
1pt Achraf Hakimi to be shown a card at 4/1 (Unibet)
The highlight of the Champions League group stages. The two favourites for the trophy meet in Paris knowing that a result in this one will have a huge impact on their chances of progressing in top spot.
City beat PSG at the semi-final stage last season but couldn't go all the way as they were denied by Chelsea in Portugal. The wait for both goes on - PSG's summer activity strongly suggests they are growing strongly impatient of their unsuccessful attempts in this competition.
The visitors are the favourites to win this one but PSG's perfect start to the Ligue 1 season is supported by the expected goals (xG) numbers. They do need to be better but will know the importance of this game - it should be great for the neutral regardless.
Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Tuesday
TV channel: BT Sport 2
PSG 19/10 | Draw 13/5 | Manchester City 13/10
City scored four across the two games when these sides met last season and they weren't conservative in their approach. We could expect the same this time around - even if Pep Guardiola has drawn criticism for changing things up when it comes to the big games.
There are a number of routes to take in a game such as this. The amount of markets available means that searching around creates decent value and targeting certain areas of the pitch open this up.
We'll come to that shortly but the 40/1 available on JOAO CANCELO TO SCORE FIRST is a value play that looks too good to ignore. He netted in City's thrilling 6-3 win over RB Leipzig and can consider himself unlucky not to have one in the Premier League.
The wonderstrike nature of the goal against Leipzig is highlighted by the fact his xG in that competition is just 0.02 but domestic showings have been more encouraging. After six appearances, his xG per game average currently stands at a decent 0.12.
That's a good number for a full-back and one in which we wouldn't expect a price as big as the above on the first goal. With the focus on Jack Grealish down City's left side, Cancelo could be freed up for opportunities to strike - it's above 13/1 on the each-way if a goal is scored after the first.
Sticking with Grealish, and it could be a tough night for the PSG defence as they look to keep him quiet. An interesting play is backing ACHRAF HAKIMI TO BE SHOWN A CARD - he's already been booked in Ligue 1 this season.
He's only averaging 0.9 fouls in Ligue 1 but coming up against Grealish will be problematic and that is shown in the number of opposition right-backs who have been booked when facing City.
Southampton's Valentino Livramento and Arsenal's Cedric Soares are recent examples of players who have been shown yellows when coming up against a City side containing Grealish - although players have been booked when coming up against any of their talented wingers.
There's also the referee for this one. Carlos del Cerro Grande can be classified as one of the stricter referees used in this competition - he showed 4.6 cards per game in 2020/21 all competitions.
He's picked up where he's left off with 5.25 cards per game from four outings this season. Against a player who was the most fouled in the Premier League last season - with only two players seeing more so far - Hakimi could be one of those who goes into Grande's book.
PSG v Manchester City best bets and score prediction
- 1pt e.w. Joao Cancelo to score first at 40/1 (1/3 1-99) (bet365)
- 1pt Achraf Hakimi to be shown a card at 4/1 (Unibet)
Score prediction: PSG 1-2 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Odds correct at 1430 BST (27/09/21)
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