Premier League title odds: Can Arsenal hold Manchester City off?

With other contenders falling away in the Premier League title race, it has become very evident that the 22/23 Premier League title race consists of just two horses, Arsenal and Manchester City.

Erik ten Hag's Manchester United were briefly in the conversation following their excellent form since the season restart, however, their underlying numbers were never at the required level to challenge, and dropped points have since followed.

The bookies are still offering prices for the Red Devils, as well as Newcastle, to win the title but at 200/1 and 500/1 respectively, it looks to be a near impossible task for both of those sides.

With a sizeable point gap between the top two and the teams below, it is now between student and master as Mikel Arteta and Pep Guardiola go head to head for the ultimate prize.

Premier League winner 22/23 odds (via Sky Bet)

• Arsenal - 8/13
• Manchester City - 11/8
• Manchester United - 200/1
• Newcastle United - 500/1

Odds correct at 1100 GMT (27/03/23)

Arsenal: 1st - 69 points

Arteta and Arsenal have navigated through the storms of a poor run of form in early February to steer their ship back on course.

Exiting the Europa League at the hands of Sporting Lisbon may be a blessing in disguise for the Gunners over the rest of the season as they look to make the final push.

Unbeaten in six in the league, Arsenal have scored 19 goals in those matches, including four most recently against Crystal Palace in a 4-1 win at home.

The January acquisitions of Jorginho and Leandro Trossard are proving to be shrewd moves by Edu and the Arsenal board, with Trossard proving to be a useful option in the absence of Gabriel Jesus, even improving the quality of their attack in recent fixtures.

Averaging 3.16 goals per match in their recent run, Arsenal have made the most of a relatively easy schedule, churning out results even when they haven't been at their best.

They have hit form at the right time though, with Gabriel Jesus set to return to the side following the end of the international break. Gabriel Martinelli's goals are flowing again, the Brazil international is currently the club's top scorer with 13 in the league, having a clinical season having racked up 8.05 xG.

Looking at their underlying numbers, Arsenal have averaged 2.03 xGF per game, indicating a very strong attacking process with the likes of Martinelli, Bukayo Saka and Martin Odegaard playing a big part to achieve that figure.

Zooming out and assessing their underlying data from the start of last season, it is clear that the Gunners have improved vastly in order to fuel the title push that we are witnessing.

Defensively, they have made improvements to reduce their xGA to 1.05 per game from their 21/22 average of 1.30. William Saliba and Gabriel have struck up a strong partnership, a back injury for the Frenchman has thrown a curveball Arteta's way with a return date as of yet unknown for him.

Looking ahead at the rest of the season, Arsenal play Leeds, Liverpool and West Ham in their next three games in the league. The most defining run of fixtures in this period will be a four-game run where they play Manchester City, Chelsea, Newcastle and Brighton.

Depending on how the table looks and the points difference ahead of the trip to the Etihad, that game's importance could be off the charts.

Manchester City: 2nd - 61 points

Eight points behind the Gunners and with a game in hand, Manchester City are just about within touching distance of Arsenal in their bid to win a fifth title in six seasons.

Erling Haaland's 28 goals in the league have added a different dimension to City's attack this year, with the former Dortmund striker proving to be the perfect goal-scoring machine for a well-oiled Guardiola side.

Results of late have been perfect for the Sky Blues, winning six out of six in all competitions, hammering RB Leipzig 7-0 in the Champions League and Burnley 6-0 in the FA Cup.

Haaland scored eight goals across those two games, and is looking intent on breaking all kinds of records for City this season. Scoring 40 Premier League goals this season doesn't seem to be as improbable for him as many would have thought at the start of the season.

Since the season restart, City have dropped points against Sean Dyche's Everton, Nottingham Forest and lost away from home to both Manchester United and Tottenham, which has further distanced them from the league leaders.

The underlying numbers show a slight regression in both xGF and xGA per game from last season for City, averaging 2.29 xGF and 0.98 xGA. Whilst these are still strong numbers, it could be argued that the underlying data has taken a hit due to the stylistic changes implemented by Guardiola this season.

Last term they averaged 2.47 xGF and 0.72 xGA per game, so while results are almost always going their way, the trend in City's underlying data clearly shows that they haven't been as dominant as they were last season.

Despite that, their next three games against Liverpool, Southampton and Leicester provide the perfect opportunity to make up ground ahead of the crunch meeting against Arsenal at home.

The final two fixtures in the Premier League being against Chelsea and Brentford will come with their own challenges, however, results in those fixtures might not have much say in their title chances if they don't perform at maximum levels week in, week out.

That is easier said than done for Guardiola as he also navigates expectations in cup competitions, with silverware still in reach in the FA Cup and the seemingly ever-lasting pursuit of a first Champions League trophy.

Who will win the Premier League title?

According to Infogol, the title is still very much in the balance, but it is Arsenal who hold a 56.3% chance.

City's chances of catching the Gunners stand at 43.7%, so it really couldn't be any closer, and we can be sure to expect more twists and turns by the week.

It's very much a case of who will blink first, the master or the apprentice.

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