Premier League tips and Super 6 predictions: Matchday 38
Football betting tips: Premier League
2.5pts Julio Enciso 3+ total shots in Brighton vs Man Utd at 10/11 (bet365)
1.5pts Jean-Philippe Mateta to score anytime in Palace vs Villa at 11/8 (bet365)
1.5pts Trent Alexander Arnold 1+ shot on target in Liverpool vs Wolves at 6/4 (Sky Bet)
1pt Trent Alexander Arnold 1+ shot on target and 2+ total shots in Liverpool vs Wolves at 9/4 (Sky Bet)
1pt Brennan Johnson to score anytime in Sheff Utd vs Spurs at 9/4 (Sky Bet)
1pt Elijah Adebayo to score anytime in Luton vs Fulham at 11/5 (Betfair, Paddys)
0.5pt Manchester City to win from behind vs West Ham at 13/2 (BetVictor)
0.5pt A goal in both halves of every game at 18/1 (Sky Bet)
0.25pts Over 1.5 goals in the 1st half of each game at 600/1 (Sky Bet)
*all matches kick off at 16:00 BST Sunday
Last weekend was a good one for this column, thankfully given we had NINE bets! A return of +3.85pts was more than welcome, with Burnley opening the scoring at Spurs delivering the bulk of the profit on Saturday, and Arsenal winning to nil on Sunday adding to the pot.
- Jake Osgathorpe is +63.41pts in profit for the 2023-24 football season
It's now five profitable columns out of the last six, with that only losing one being a marginal loss, for a +10.0pt profit. Hopefully we can sign off with another winning week on the final day of the Premier League season, where even more chaos usually ensues.
Final day data spiel...
If you want a little bit of historical trend data of the final day in the Premier League season, then the next paragraphs are for you! If not, apologies, and swiftly scroll on to the first bolded text of the column.
Across the last 14 Premier League seasons we have seen an average of 33 goals score on the final day, an increase of 22% on the GW1-GW37 average of 27.
This campaign we have witnessed a record-breaking amount of goals, with around 33 per gameweek, so with the same extrapolation of 22%, we should expect to see at least 40 goals across the 10 matches on Sunday. Let's hope that's the case.
It's also worth noting that we do see more freak scorelines on the final day of the season, with an average of 2.4 games seeing five or more goals across the last 14 final days. Last season we witnessed a 4-4 draw between Southampton and Liverpool, in 18/19 we got a 5-3 Crystal Palace win over Bournemouth, 17/18 saw Spurs edge Leicester 5-4 and the season prior saw Spurs go to Hull and win 7-1.
Let's not forget Stoke's 6-1 win over Liverpool in 14/15, or Sir Alex Ferguson's final game as Manchester United manager, which was a 5-5 draw at West Brom. There will be at least one freak scoreline, it's just finding the right game.
Of the Sky Bet final day specials, one in particular stands out as a serious runner - A GOAL IN BOTH HALVES OF EVERY GAME at 18/1. This should go close, and it doesn't matter who scores the goal either!
Also for a bit of fun, I'll have like literal peanuts on OVER 1.5 GOALS IN THE 1ST HALF OF EACH GAME at 600/1. A huge price to cheer on, and let's hope every team comes flying out of the blocks.
Manchester City vs West Ham
- Kick-off time: 16:00 BST, Sunday
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Home 1/11 | Draw 19/2 | Away 20/1
Manchester City should secure a record fourth straight Premier League title, and should beat West Ham at the Etihad as the price of 1/11 suggests. But, I'm happy to have a small bet on at least a tiny bit of jeopardy, with MANCHESTER CITY TO WIN FROM BEHIND looking big at 13/2.
Yes, the Hammers have nothing to play for and have been shocking away of late, conceding 14 in their last three, but they do have counter attacking capabilities, players pushing to be included in squads for the Euros and/or potentially looking to put on a show while in the shop window, so should turn up for some of the game.
Plus, let's not forget that Pep's side have been involved in two must-win games on the final day in the last five seasons and they've gone behind on both occasions before winning and securing the title against Brighton (4-1) and Aston Villa (3-2). And while not under Pep, we can't forget the 'Agueroooooooooo' game.
It looks to be worth a small punt on a repeat, as after all, City have conceded first in 30% of matches this season, including in the reverse game, and they did look nervy in midweek against Spurs.
Score prediction: Manchester City 4-1 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Liverpool vs Wolves
- Kick-off time: 16:00 BST, Sunday
- TV: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 1/7 | Draw 15/2 | Away 14/1
This could be a game with a freak scoreline. It's Jurgen Klopp's last game as Liverpool manager, and you just know the crowd and players want to give him the ultimate send off. I expect the Reds to fire into an early lead, and given the occasion they won't take their foot off the gas.
Goal prices are short, scorer prices too, but with this being an absolute bombardment I think chancing my old friend - though that's a stretch as he's yet to land us a winner - TRENT ALEXANDER-ARNOLD to have 1+ SHOT ON TARGET. The Englishman has been shot-happy since returning from injury, landing a shot on target in three of his last five outings.
Given Jurgen Klopp was the man to give him his debut, continued to believe in him and dismiss the doubters, I suspect Trent will want to have an impact in an emotional send off.
He could again be in shoot-on-sight mode, and this bet is obviously aided by him being on set-pieces. I'll also use the BuildABet function to back TRENT 1+ SHOT ON TARGET and TRENT 2+ TOTAL SHOTS for a 9/4 shot, with Trent taking at least two shots in all of his last three outings.
- CLICK HERE to back Trent Alexander-Arnold 1+ shot on target with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Trent Alexander-Arnold 1+ shot on target and 2+ total shots with Sky Bet
Score prediction: Liverpool 6-1 Wolves (Sky Bet odds: 28/1)
Arsenal vs Everton
- Kick-off time: 16:00 BST, Sunday
- TV: TNT Sports 1
- Home 1/6 | Draw 13/2 | Away 14/1
It is unlikely that Arsenal win the title on Sunday, the Gunners a best price of 9/1 to do so. But, they have to at least do they job, just in case City do slip up. Mikel Arteta's side should do just that, even if the Toffees are finishing the season in red-hot fashion.
Sean Dyche's men have won five and lost just one of their last seven, though are winless in 10 away league games, losing six. Only one of those defeats was a shellacking though (6-0 at Chelsea), meaning an Arsenal win and Under 3.5 goals did appeal at 7/5, but with it being the final day I don't really want to oppose goals if I can avoid it!
Score prediction: Arsenal 3-0 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Brighton vs Manchester United
- Kick-off time: 16:00 BST, Sunday
- Home 11/10 | Draw 3/1 | Away 2/1
Brighton are an interesting proposition at the prices - a best priced 23/20 - but Roberto De Zerbi's men continue to underwhelm enough for me to swerve them and instead hunt in the player props markets, where JULIO ENCISO 3+ TOTAL SHOTS looks a serious runner.
The Paraguayan has had a stop start campaign due to injuries, but has appeared in all of Brighton's last four games, starting the last two. To put it bluntly, he's a shot merchant. In those matches he's taken 2, 3, 5 and 2 shots, with his per 90 average since returning a huge 5.3.
That alone is enough to have me on board with him this weekend, and that's before we factor in that Manchester United have conceded the second most shots in the entire league (17.3 per game), while across their last seven away league games they shipped 24.1 shots per game. Enciso could rack them up here, and I wouldn't put anyone off backing the 4+ line at 9/4, the 5+ at 5/1 and even the 6+ at 12/1.
Score prediction: Brighton 3-1 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Sheffield United vs Tottenham
- Kick-off time: 16:00 BST, Sunday
- Home 13/2 | Draw 21/4 | Away 3/10
How many can Spurs score? Sheffield United have shipped a record 101 goals so far this season, 54 at home for an average of 3.0 per game. Their poor fans, eh? Spurs haven't exactly lit it up away from home, but you'd have to expect them to score at least three here given the Blades' record.
Chancing a goalscorer makes sense then, and it's BRENNAN JOHNSON who appeals TO SCORE ANYTIME at 13/8. The Welshman is Spurs' second most effective attacking player in terms of getting good scoring chances regularly.
Only Richarlison (0.58) has a better xG per 90 average than Johnson (0.39) for Ange Postecoglou's men. The Brazilian is a doubt here through injury, meaning Heung-min Son (0.38 xG/90) should again start down the middle and Johnson out wide.
Son is a best price of 5/6 to find the net here, yet Johnson is a huge 9/4 to do so despite posting near identical underlying numbers, and that price looks massive in a game where his side are expected to score at least three.
Score prediction: Sheffield United 1-5 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 20/1)
Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa
- Kick-off time: 16:00 BST, Sunday
- Home 5/6 | Draw 3/1 | Away 11/4
Aston Villa have achieved a top four finish, an incredible feat, and boy did they celebrate. You have to imagine they'll still be half-cut come Sunday and even if they aren't, the fact Unai Emery's side have shipped an average of 1.93 xGA per away game since Boxing Day means we can expect an in-form Palace to score plenty of goals.
Backing JEAN-PHILIPPE MATETA TO SCORE ANYTIME appeals again at 11/8. Tucking his shirt in must be the Frenchman's equivalent of Clark Kent taking his glasses off, as he has been playing like Superman at Selhurst Park.
In Oliver Glasner's six home games in charge, Mateta has found the net in every single one, firing eight goals in total with an xG per 90 average of 0.70. Let's hope for more of the same on Sunday.
I think this game could explode with goals, so it could be worth combining multiple scorers, with Mateta, Michael Olise (four in last five) and Ollie Watkins (chasing 20 goals) all to score coming in at 20/1 with bet365.
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 4-2 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 25/1)
Luton vs Fulham
- Kick-off time: 16:00 BST, Sunday
- Home 19/10 | Draw 14/5 | Away 6/5
Luton will be relegated on Sunday. To survive they need a literal miracle - they need to win and Forest to lose, with a 12-goal swing in their favour. We know they'll give it a go though.
Rob Edwards' side have been playing open an expansive football, sometimes to their detriment, for most of the season, and we shouldn't expect that to stop in the final game, meaning the price available for ELIJAH ADEBAYO TO SCORE ANYTIME is simply huge.
The big striker has enjoyed playing at Kenilworth Road this term, finding the net in five of his last seven home games and scoring seven in total during that time. Averaging 0.66 xG per 90 in front of his home fans, I'm shocked to see him as big as 11/5 to make the net ripple on Sunday against a Fulham side who have checked out.
Score prediction: Luton 3-2 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 16/1)
Super 6 predictions for round 55
- Manchester City 4-1 West Ham
- Liverpool 6-1 Wolves
- Arsenal 3-0 Everton
- Brighton 3-1 Manchester United
- Sheffield United 1-5 Tottenham
- Crystal Palace 4-2 Aston Villa
Odds correct at 1230 BST (17/05/24)
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