Premier League tips and Super 6 predictions: Matchday 34
- Jake Osgathorpe is +59.03pts in profit for the 2023-24 football season
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Crystal Palace to beat West Ham at 23/20 (General)
We made a decent profit in last weekend's column, 2.82pts to be precise, but who's counting. Morgan Gibbs-White played ball and picked up a yellow in Nottingham Forest's draw with Wolves and Manchester United continue to be the gift that keeps on giving, getting statistically battered again by Bournemouth to land the 17+ shots and 7+ corners bets for the Cherries.
Sunday was frustrating, with the BTTS shout in Liverpool v Palace looking good after the Eagles took the lead early on, only for Liverpool to draw a second successive home blank. Anyway, let's move onto this weekend where a few selections stand out.
Crystal Palace vs West Ham
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Sunday
- Home 11/10 | Draw 5/2 | Away 12/5
Crystal Palace became the first side in the league this season to beat Liverpool at Anfield last weekend, and while they rode their luck at times, Oliver Glasner's men created plenty of chances (xG: LIV 2.81 - 1.98 CRY), which they deserve great credit for.
The Eagles finally have Michael Olise and Eberechi Eze back fit and available, and the pair given some license to roam at the top end of the pitch, are as dangerous as any Premier League duo. Palace have found some consistency in performances, while the opposite can be said for West Ham.
David Moyes' side have won just two of their last nine matches in all competitions and were incredibly disappointing in defeat at Fulham last weekend. That comes as no surprise though, with their record after a midweek European game reading W2 D4 L3 this season.
Those results read even worst given six of those matches came against bottom half sides, with the Hammers taking on only two of the current top four. Away from home this season, Moyes' men rank as the second worst defensive team, allowing 2.26 xGA per game, and that, coupled with Palace's improvement and the Hammers midweek-weekend issues, means CRYSTAL PALACE TO WIN rates a solid bet on Sunday.
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 3-1 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)
Coventry vs Manchester United
- Kick-off time: 15:30 BST, Sunday
- Home 11/2 | Draw 19/5 | Away 4/9
I think Coventry have a better chance of causing an upset than the odds suggest. The Sky Blues are the value to qualify at 10/3 for me given the state of Manchester United in recent weeks. They are still shipping an insane amount of chances and goals.
Their last 11 matches have seen them concede 23.6 shots per game, so Coventry 13+ shots at 5/6 (Betfair, Paddys) appeals as a betting angle. But seen as this is 'Premier League tips', it won't be an official play. For my Super 6 prediction though, I'm going for a score draw and extra time.
Score prediction: Coventry 1-1 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Fulham vs Liverpool
- Kick-off time: 16:30 BST, Sunday
- TV Channel: Sky Sports Main Event
- Home 19/4 | Draw 18/5 | Away 1/2
Like Arsenal, Liverpool have to show us what they are made of this weekend after a couple of bad results. They need a bounce back, but like the Gunners, they too have a tricky game.
Fulham have been strong at home this season, winning nine of 16 and losing six, beating Arsenal and Tottenham at Craven Cottage, while losing only narrowly to three other top seven sides. The Reds' defensive issues fill me with concern, especially away from home, where they allow an average of 1.50 xGA per game.
Their attack remains extremely menacing, with poor finishing the only reason they drew blanks in both home games last week, with Jurgen Klopp's men generating chances equating to 5.4 xG! I fancy them to get back to winning ways through their explosive attack.
Score prediction: Fulham 2-4 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 22/1)
Already advised
1pt Bryan Mbeumo to score anytime in Luton vs Brentford at 43/20 (Unibet)
1pt David Datro Fofana to score anytime in Sheff Utd vs Burnley at 5/2 (Unibet)
1pt Morgan Gibbs-White to be carded in Everton vs N Forest at 4/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Wolves or Draw vs Arsenal at 9/4 (Sky Bet)
Luton vs Brentford
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 11/5 | Draw 11/4 | Away 11/10
This is as big game for Luton given their predicament, but while a result is hard to call, what I am fairly certain about here is that we will see goals at Kenilworth Road. Luton's home matches have averaged 3.2 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 81% of contests.
Brentford have recently welcomed back BRYAN MBEUMO from a lengthy injury lay off, and I think we have to back him TO SCORE ANYTIME when his price is above 2/1 in a game where his side are favourites and the goal expectancy is extremely high.
The Cameroonian made three sub appearances in March but has started both games in April, scoring in the Bees' last away match at Aston Villa. People forget just how good he was at the start of the season before his injury, netting seven goals in 15 matches.
Mbeumo leads Brentford for xG per 90 this season, some way clear of second best Neal Maupay, highlighting that he gets on the end of good chances more regularly than anyone else - even Ivan Toney, who interestingly hasn't started the last two games.
Score prediction: Luton 1-3 Brentford (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)
Sheffield United vs Burnley
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 17/10 | Draw 13/5 | Away 29/20
This is last chance saloon for both of these sides. A win either way and it's still a mountain to climb, but fail to win and it's more-or-less curtains. That should lead to an exciting, end-to-end game at Bramall Lane, with both sides going all out.
Sheffield United have been a goal shipping machine at home of late, conceding an eyewatering 31 goals in their last eight games as hosts - an average of 3.9 per game! Burnley should surely fancy their chances of netting at least twice then, especially given the steadying of their form.
If that's to be the case, then the price about DAVID DATRO FOFANA TO SCORE ANYTIME is simply too large at 5/2. The Chelsea loanee has scored four times in his last 10 games but has averaged an impressive 0.51 xG per 90.
He gets on the end of at least one decent chance per game, and the likelihood here is that he'll get more than one good opportunity to find the net.
Score prediction: Sheffield United 1-2 Burnley (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Manchester City vs Chelsea
- Kick-off time: 17:15 BST, Saturday
- TV Channel: BBC One
- Home 8/13 | Draw 16/5 | Away 4/1
How do Manchester City rebound from penalty shoot-out, treble ending heartache in midweek? That's the main question here. Tiredness could be an issue for Pep's side given the 120 minutes they played, as could the fact that they play against a Chelsea side who have fared well against them this season.
The Blues, buoyed by a 6-0 thrashing against Everton on Monday, have drawn both games against City this season (4-4 and 1-1), going toe-to-toe against the reigning champs and coming away unscathed. Their own penalty shoot-out heartache experience in the Carabao Cup final at Wembley could serve their young squad well ahead of a second trip, and I wouldn't be surprised if they cause an upset.
Score prediction: Manchester City 1-1 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Wolves vs Arsenal
- Kick-off time: 19:30 BST, Saturday
- TV Channel: Sky Sports Main Event
- Home 15/2 | Draw 17/4 | Away 1/3
Right, it's time to show us what you are made of Arsenal. Two defeats in a week without scoring has put them on the back foot in the Premier League title race and knocked them out of Europe. It was around this time last season they capitulated, could we be seeing a repeat here?
There is every chance, and fresh from Wednesday's disappointment, they face an awkward trip to a Wolves team who are a tough out at Molineux. The Old Gold's recent form hasn't been overly impressive, but they show up against the best.
This season they have lost just one of five home matches against sides currently in the top six, while they should have avoided defeat against both seventh placed Manchester United (equalised in 95th only to concede in 97th) and eighth placed West Ham (controversial VAR decision to wipe out an equaliser).
Arsenal's displays in the second half against Aston Villa and the whole 90 against Bayern Munich were extremely concerning from an attacking perspective, generating a combined 0.58 xG in 135 minutes of football, and with Wolves' attacking threat on the break, chancing WOLVES OR DRAW at a massive price appeals.
Score prediction: Wolves 1-1 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Everton vs N Forest
- Kick-off time: 13:30 BST, Sunday
- TV Channel: Sky Sports Main Event
- Home evs | Draw 5/2 | Away 13/5
This is a big match. Everton and Forest are separated by just a point, with a further point between the latter and the relegation zone, so the stakes are huge in this game. That immediately draws me to the cards market, especially with Anthony Taylor overseeing proceedings, he's averaged 4.6 cards per game across all competitions this season.
Looking at the prices, I think it's well worth wading in again on MORGAN GIBBS-WHITE TO BE CARDED. We are getting 4/1 this week, only slightly down on last weekend's 9/2, despite this being a relegation six-pointer, a good refereeing appointment and the fact Gibbs-White has been booked in his last two matches.
I was expecting around the 3/1 mark, so am more than happy to take the Englishman - Forest's most carded player this season - to collect a 10th booking. He's been booked in five of his last 10 league outings, averaging 0.53 cards and 1.71 fouls per 90.
Everton's midfield draw fouls and cards too, with six midfielders booked in their last eight matches. Gibbs-White can add to that tally in what is likely to be a fiery contest.
Score prediction: Everton 1-2 Nottingham Forest (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Super 6 predictions for round 50
- Luton 1-3 Brentford
- Man City 1-1 Chelsea
- Wolves 1-1 Arsenal
- Everton 1-2 N Forest
- Coventry 1-1 Man Utd
- Fulham 2-4 Liverpool
Odds correct at 1530 BST (18/04/24)
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