Premier League tips and Super 6 predictions: Matchday 33
- Jake Osgathorpe is +53.96pts in profit for the 2023-24 football season
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Bournemouth 17+ total shots vs Man Utd at 10/11 (Unibet)
2pts BTTS in Liverpool vs C Palace at 10/11 (General)
1.5pts Bournemouth 7+ corners vs Man Utd at evens (Sky Bet)
1.5pts Julian Alvarez to score anytime in Man City vs Luton 6/5 (bet365)
1pt Morgan Gibbs-White to be carded in N Forest vs Wolves at 9/2 (Sky Bet)
0.75pts e.w. Gabriel Magalhaes to score first in Arsenal vs Aston Villa at 20/1 (bet365 1/3, 1-98 places)
We just about broke even last weekend, thanks to Zanka's shot and Tottenham continuing to win at home while conceding, but I'm not going to lie, I got extremely excited when Alexis Mac Allister had the ball under his arm ahead of Liverpool's penalty.
He duped me though, with Mohamed Salah taking the ball after everything calmed down before slotting it home. Close but no cigar. We go again though this weekend with six fancies.
Liverpool vs Crystal Palace
- Kick-off time: 14:00 GMT, Sunday
- TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 1/5 | Draw 6/1 | Away 12/1
Liverpool were extremely poor in their midweek match against Atalanta, losing 3-0 at Anfield, their first home defeat of the season.
Jurgen Klopp rotated heavily and was bitten, with six changes proving too much for the Reds to overcome. Defensively they were all over the place, shipping 3.22 xGA against a team who operate in a 3-4-3 system, with this weekend's opponents Crystal Palace also setting up in a similar fashion under Oliver Glasner.
The Eagles have Eberechi Eze and Michael Olise back fit, two extremely dangerous players. As a team they impressed against Manchester City last weekend when scoring twice, and they can at least find the net once at Anfield given the hosts' defensive issues.
We can back BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE at near even money and that makes great appeal here. Liverpool have conceded in 18 of their 25 home games this season, with the likes of Luton, Burnley and Sheffield United all finding the net on their visits.
Palace have found the net in six of their seven under Glasner, including against Tottenham and Man City, averaging 1.32 xGF per game. Their counter-attacking style looks well suited to hurt Liverpool, though the Reds - licking their wounds - should get the win.
Score prediction: Liverpool 3-1 Crystal Palace (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Arsenal vs Aston Villa
- Kick-off time: 16:30 GMT, Sunday
- TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 1/4 | Draw 5/1 | Away 9/1
This game is a big one for both Arsenal and Villa, but comes at an inconvenient time for both, slap bang in the middle of the two legs of both sides' European quarter-finals. The Gunners are top of the table and chasing a title, while Villa are in a battle for a top-four spot - which after the midweek European results could well be the cut off for Champions League football.
We shouldn't expect too many changes from either, and while the Gunners look a tad short to win this game, a set-piece mismatch appears to be an angle worth looking at here.
Villa have conceded 14 goals from set-plays this season, ranking third worst in terms of xGA from such scenarios (13.5), while Arsenal have found the net 18 times from dead-ball situations, ranking third best for xGF (12.4).
The Gunners racked up 1.18 xG from set-pieces last weekend against Brighton, with GABRIEL MAGALHAES again proving a handful, and I'm happy to chance him TO SCORE FIRST each-way here at 20/1, with us being paid out at 6.67/1 should he score the second, third or fourth etc goal of the game.
Taking the first scorer each-way is the way on this occasion simply for price reason, with his best anytime price on the market 13/2. Gabriel has taken 28 shots in the league this season, scoring four times and averaging 0.14 xG per 90.
The Brazilian is the biggest centre-back goal threat in the league this season, playing in one of the best set-piece sides in the top flight, and in this game he takes on one of the weaker sides defending dead-balls. He's worth chancing, while he has opened the scoring twice in his 29 league starts.
Score prediction: Arsenal 2-0 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Manchester City vs Luton
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 1/14 | Draw 10/1 | Away 25/1
This should be as routine as they come for Manchester City, but with a second leg against Real Madrid just days after, I suspect Pep Guardiola will give some squad players a start here, not that it'll affect their chances of victory.
One player who hasn't featured as much this season is JULIAN ALVAREZ, and his price TO SCORE ANYTIME appeals here at 6/5 - he's 8/13 in places.
Alvarez has been quiet compared to last season, starting just four of City's last 10 matches, but he should get the nod here as he did against Aston Villa and Crystal Palace with the rotation of Phil Foden and/or Erling Haaland likely.
He hasn't scored in his last seven league starts, but that's not for want of trying, with the Argentine taking 28 shots in that time equating to 2.87 xG. His last two starts saw him get on the end of a couple of excellent chances, and he should have plenty of opportunities here up against the worst travelling defence in the league, Luton.
Score prediction: Manchester City 5-0 Luton (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Burnley vs Brighton
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 5/2 | Draw 11/4 | Away 19/20
Burnley's defeat at Everton last time out was a bitter blow after a little resurgence, with that loss leaving them six points from safety. Their performances continue to be positive though, and we can expect them to go down swinging.
Brighton have won just one of their last 10 away league games, beating only Sheffield United, and simply can't be trusted here at around even money with their campaign meandering into nothingness.
Score prediction: Burnley 1-1 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Nottingham Forest vs Wolves
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 11/10 | Draw 5/2 | Away 12/5
Craig Pawson looks a decent appointment for this match-up, where we have two sides who rank in the top six for both fouls committed and yellow cards given.
MORGAN GIBBS-WHITE looks ripe TO BE CARDED given his recent displays, and the fact he will be taking on his former employers, the club that didn't want him.
The Englishman has been booked in four of his last nine league matches, three of those coming at the City Ground, and with Forest in a real survival scrap, we can expect him to be especially fired up.
In that time he's averaged 1.79 fouls per 90 and 0.48 cards per 90, making the 9/2 about him to be cautioned a cracking price.
Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 2-1 Wolves (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Bournemouth vs Manchester United
- Kick-off time: 17:30 GMT, Saturday
- TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 7/5 | Draw 14/5 | Away 13/8
Manchester United continue to put up defensive stats that we would expect to see from a relegation candidate, and we can profit again in this game, simply because Erik ten Hag refuses to even acknowledge the issue, never mind address it.
The Red Devils have conceded a whopping 237 shots over their last 10 league games - for context Manchester City have conceded 250 over the whole season.
In their six away games in that time they have allowed 147 shots on their goal, an average of 24.5, so the 10/11 available for BOURNEMOUTH 17+ SHOTS makes immediate appeal on that factor alone.
The Cherries aren't shot shy, and have racked up 13, 11 and 15 attempts in home games against Manchester City, Liverpool and Aston Villa - all better defensive sides than United - so should surpass the 17+ line. United's opponents have hit this required line in nine of their last 10.
I'll also have a second bet on this game, backing BOURNEMOUTH 7+ CORNERS for similar reasons. United have conceded an average of 9.9 corners per game across their last 10, an average that rises to 11.8 when looking at their last five away games.
Andoni Iraola's side sit fifth in the league for corners taken this season, averaging 7.25 corners per home game and hitting the required line in 56% of matches at the Vitality. You can double up 7+ corners with 16+ shots for a tasty 2/1 shot on Sky Bet.
- CLICK HERE to back Bournemouth total shots with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Bournemouth 7+ corners with Sky Bet
Score prediction: Bournemouth 3-1 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)
Super 6 predictions for round 49
- Man City 5-0 Luton
- Burnley 1-1 Brighton
- N Forest 2-1 Wolves
- Bournemouth 3-1 Man Utd
- Liverpool 3-1 C Palace
- Arsenal 2-0 Aston Villa
Odds correct at 1100 BST (12/4/24)
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