Liam Kelly identifies a telling data point for each team in the Premier League as we edge towards the halfway point of the 2021/22 season.
- Published before Boxing Day fixtures, stats correct up to that date.
Manchester City
It would be easy to look at Manchester City and praise their attacking prowess, especially following 7-0 and 4-0 wins heading into the festive period, but they're performing at historic levels defensively.
City aren't quite on track to better Chelsea's 15 goals conceded in the 2004/5 campaign, but are on course to concede 18 goals this term. Their underlying numbers have been astounding.
Pep Guardiola's side are averaging just 0.62 expected goals against (xGA) per game through 18 matches, which would be the lowest average for a season since Infogol started collating data in 2014.
Put simply, no team will challenge City for the title from this position if they keep it up.
Liverpool
Now, here is an attacking unit we should praise profusely.
Liverpool's numbers from an attacking perspective are the only thing keeping them in touch with the juggernaut that is Manchester City.
Jürgen Klopp's side have scored 50 goals in 18 games, averaging a staggering 2.73 expected goals for (xGF) per game. Like City's defence, the Reds attack is on track to be the best marker since Infogol began.
They may have to keep up that frightening pace to hang onto the coattails of City
Chelsea
Chelsea's slight drift away from the top two has been coming when looking at the underlying metrics.
Their defensive numbers are similar to Liverpool's but they don't have the attacking process to account for that high a number. It's just not their style.
The Blues allowed an average of 0.68 xGA per game in the 19 Premier League matches after Thomas Tuchel took over last season — the foundation behind much-improved form.
Chelsea are averaging 1.11 xGA per game this season, so something needs to change if they want to challenge the potential record-breakers above them.
Arsenal
Mikel Arteta's side owe much of their league position to their displays at the Emirates, having gained 68.75% of their points amid home comforts this season, taking 22 points from a possible 27.
No other team in the league has won more points or more games as hosts. Arsenal's underlying numbers are just as impressive, too.
After a resounding defeat at the hands of Chelsea in their home opener, the Gunners have been nothing short of exceptional, posting a +13.7 expected goal difference (xGD).
Such a positive average xGD difference per game (+1.71) in the eight matches since the defeat shows Arsenal's home points total is no fluke.
West Ham
West Ham's Champions League hopes are waning.
Following an excellent start to the campaign, the Hammers are suffering the consequences of not having as much depth as the 'big six'.
In winning just one of their last six games, David Moyes' depleted side have averaged 0.83 xGF per game. As a result, the festive period becomes hugely important if aspirations of another European journey are to be met.
Manchester United
This one can be kept short. Manchester United's defence has been a disgrace this season, allowing an average of 1.74 xGA per game.
Only five teams have conceded more chances per game than United, who have David de Gea's heroics to thank for keeping them in the hunt for a top-four spot.
Ralf Rangnick's appointment is a good one, though, so expect continued improvement on that front in 2022.
Tottenham
Spurs' tumultuous season looks to be finally on the up, with Antonio Conte getting a tune out of Tottenham in recent weeks.
Harry Kane, however, is still to find form. It appeared that his woes in front of goal were over after scoring the opener against Liverpool last time out. Not so.
It's curious to see Kane struggle with a finishing slump, so often a habitual overperformer of underlying numbers.
Kane has now scored just two goals from 4.6 xG in the Premier League this season, netting only one of the eight 'big chances' (0.35 xG+) presented to him.
Overall production is down, but if he finds his shooting boots, Spurs will be a big threat for a Champions League spot.
Wolves
After starting the campaign in entertaining fashion, Bruno Lage's side have started to look like the Wolves team of last term — a dull watch. Matches involving Wolves hold a measly average of 1.50 goals per game this season.
That is a curious underperformance on underlying metrics (2.60 xG per game), though, with both the Old Gold and Wolves' opponents missing scoring opportunities at an alarming rate.
Both their attacking and defensive shot maps are a sea of blue. A bit more orange in the second half of the season and Wolves' games might be more watchable.
Leicester
Leicester's inconsistent season can be defined by a fair amount of dire defensive displays.
Only five teams in the league have a higher expected goals against total than the Foxes (28.2 xGA), despite Leicester playing one fewer game than four of the other five.
Defending corners has been a particular weakness for Brendan Rodgers' side, conceding 4.54 xG from such situations — more than any other club in the Premier League.
Aston Villa
Aston Villa turned to Steven Gerrard to save their spiralling season, and improvement in the areas required are evident after only six games in charge.
Defence was a big issue in Dean Smith's final six games, undoubtedly playing a big part in his dismissal. Gerrard appears to have fixed it.
Villa averaged 2.17 goals conceded from 17.3 shots equating to 2.22 xGA per game in Smith's last six.
In Gerrard's first six, Villa are averaging 0.83 goals conceded from 11.7 shots equating to 1.24 xGA per game, which includes games against Manchester City and Liverpool.
A good start for the Premier League legend.
Crystal Palace
Speaking of Premier League legends, Patrick Vieira needs to be given a massive amount of credit for the turnaround Crystal Palace have made.
Turning an ageing squad into one of youthful exuberance in a short space of time is some feat, and the fact that the Eagles have been very good throughout the process is seriously impressive.
Palace deserve to be higher than 11th according to the underlying numbers, holding the best expected goal difference (+4.3 xGD) of any team outside the top three.
Brentford
Perhaps the biggest compliment we can pay to Brentford is that they look like they belong in the Premier League, sitting comfortably in mid-table after 16 games, nine points above the drop zone
The Bees looked an excellent defensive unit before injuries hit in the early parts of the campaign, and have caused plenty of teams — including Liverpool and Chelsea — headaches with their attacking play.
A continuation will see Thomas Frank's side stay up, maybe even climb into the top half.
Brighton
This part of the year is undoubtedly a time for tradition, so how could we pick out anything other than an underperformance on expected goals for Brighton?
Graham Potter's side have scored only 14 goals from a total of 20.9 xGF, missing a total of 13 big chances in the process.
Is anyone else infuriated that this keeps happening despite having no links to Brighton?
Everton
A solid start under Rafa Benítez seems a long time ago for the Toffees, currently sitting 14th in the table with just one win in their last 11 league fixtures.
Injuries have been a huge factor, but Everton's defensive process has simply not been good enough considering the style of play Rafa adopts, averaging 2.10 xGA per game across that period.
Southampton
The Saints are marching towards another distinctly average campaign, yet again displaying an inconsistency that has blighted them for previous bottom-half finishes.
Scoring just 16 goals from 22.9 xG hasn't helped, seemingly missing the guaranteed goals Danny Ings provided.
It is a data point that will need to be improved upon if Southampton want to avoid a relegation fight.
Leeds
Although they have been struck fairly hard by injuries, Leeds' defensive process is that of a relegation candidate. Only Newcastle have conceded more chances than the Yorkshire side, who have shipped 34.9 xGA in 18 matches.
Marcelo Bielsa's side have been carved apart by their opponents, looking especially vulnerable to counter-attacks.
After all, Leeds have conceded far more xG than any other team on 'fast breaks', clearly struggling in the midfield area.
Watford
Watford make it difficult to pick out a standout stat given the inconsistent nature of the club — on and off the pitch.
Thinking positively, perhaps their inconsistency will help them survive. The Hornets are capable of putting in powerful attacking performances thanks to the talent of Ismaïla Sarr, Emmanuel Dennis, Josh King and Cucho Hernández.
Watford have recorded totals of 1.22, 2.92, 3.48 and 2.89 xGF in their four wins this season, counting on sporadic - but impressive — displays to gain points.
Burnley
Ah, the predictable world of Burnley. Once again, the Clarets are ranking as one of the worst teams in the league, just bad enough to be in the relegation zone.
Sean Dyche's side are 16th on expected goal difference (-7.7 xGD), and will undoubtedly 'Burnley' their way to survival, but currently sitting two points from safety puts them in a precarious position.
Newcastle
Hiring Eddie Howe to bring out the best in a talented attacking unit is all good if your defence isn't on track to be the worst Premier League team at conceding chances since 2014.
Granted, Newcastle have had a tough run of fixtures lately, but an average of 2.09 xGA per game allowed will be enough to see them relegated if it continues.
Serious investment is needed in January if the Magpies wish to stay up.
Of course, Newcastle are the team most likely to spend heavily, and fixing an abject defence should be the main aim.
Norwich
It's incredible that Norwich are still in with a shout of survival, sitting three points from safety despite scoring only eight goals across their opening 17 Premier League games.
Two of those goals came from the penalty spot, so the Canaries have scored six goals from 14.9 expected goals for (xGF).
Norwich do look a little better after Dean Smith's appointment, but they really need to a) create more chances and b) score more goals if they want to stay up.
