Premier League Talking Points & Punting Pointers: Liverpool, Tottenham and Southampton all feature

Goals, goals, goals

Perhaps it was only fair that up until Andreas Christensen and Kepa banded together to hit self-destruct with half-time looming, Super Sunday’s headline clash between Chelsea and Liverpool was a largely drab encounter, as what both preceded and followed it was quite frankly ridiculous.

Tottenham’s 5-2 win at Southampton meant the opening half of the Premier League weekend had produced 28 goals in five games, surely unsustainable – not so.

It injected life into one the most historically dull top-flight fixtures around, as Brighton struck twice in the first six minutes at Newcastle before ultimately running out 3-0 winners; just four goals had been scored across the teams’ six previous meetings.

And while the opening 44 minutes at Stamford Bridge were pretty forgettable, Christensen’s red card for an expertly timed rugby tackle on Sadio Mane then allowed that match to join in on the fun, as Liverpool quickly scored twice through Mane before conceding a penalty which Allison saved. Two goals? Boo.

To round us off, there was just the small matter of Leicester 4-2 Burnley.

For context, and in case you think I’m getting carried away, an average of just above 2.5 goals per game were scored last season - this weekend it was a shade under five. A freakish set of results.

So what is going on?

I think it’s worth serious consideration that lots of teams have genuinely forgotten how to defend, and I'm not saying that in jest.

Last weekend 23 goals were scored in eight fixtures, so pretty much three per game. Nothing drastic I suppose. But if we look at things a little more closely then it really was. Five of the 16 teams in action scored three or more goals, which is a big proportion. Add that to what we saw this weekend and it doesn’t appear to be a fluke – it’s certainly enough of a trend for us to think about adjusting how we bet.

I say this from personal experience as someone who relies on the value that often lies in the under goals market, value that’s suddenly been obliterated.

I think the unders might have be put to one side for a while...

Click to read Graham Ruthven's analysis of Chelsea v Liverpool

Now when I say teams have forgotten how to defend, I do have a theory behind why it may have happened.

There has been an unprecedented short turnaround between campaigns, with pre-season heavily disrupted. Not only have those preparations been shorter than ever, but the constant changes in quarantine restrictions, positive Covid-19 tests and an international break in the week before the league got back under way have all made things even more difficult.

But be careful not to throw your weight heavily behind overs on a general basis in case this is a freakish opening fortnight. Small stakes on over 2.5 or even over 3.5 goals accumulators would usually seem speculative in the extreme, and as a consequence offer massive prices. Right now, they're a real danger for the bookies.

Then you get to Chelsea v Liverpool, the one match we were CERTAIN would be full of goals, and it wasn't. So if you're looking for precision, I'd suggest closely following the newly-promoted clubs when betting on the over goals market.

There have been 16 fixtures so far, with 62 goals in total – 27 of those have come from the five matches involving Leeds, Fulham and West Brom - none have managed to conceded fewer than three goals.

Now they really can’t defend.

Next weekend West Brom face Chelsea - how that game is 7/4 for over 3.5 goals I do not know.

Have Spurs been reborn?

They say a week is a long time in football and how that has proven to be the case with Tottenham Hotspur.

Of course, the headlines belonged to Heung-min Son on Sunday lunchtime following his terrific four-goal performance against Southampton, but those headlines were rightly shared with Harry Kane.

The England captain assisted all four of Son’s strikes, doubling his Premier League assists tally from 2019/20, before grabbing a late goal for himself.

It capped a tremendous 24 hours for Spurs after they clinched the loan return of Gareth Bale and £25m capture of Real Madrid left-back Sergio Reguilon, with Bale's arrival being branded as the piece of business to take the club into the footballing elite.

That miserable 1-0 home defeat by Everton on opening weekend, and abject late win at Lokomotiv Plovdiv on Thursday, feel a lifetime away.

This was a glimpse of the Tottenham that Jose Mourinho is trying to build – utterly ruthless. When they led 5-1, Spurs had scored with all five of their shots on target. The swiftness with which they counter-attacked was akin to the original Chelsea team of the mid-2000s that Mourinho has sought to model several sides on ever since.

Add Bale to a frontline of Son and Kane and it’s a truly frightening prospect for any defence.

And yet Tottenham remain sixth in the betting to clinch a top-four place, behind both Arsenal and Manchester United, at a best price of 9/2.

In the short-term, Newcastle were all at sea defensively against Brighton in a match that they were lucky to only lose 3-0. Tottenham and over 3.5 goals at 3/1 feels enormous right now.

Maybe I’ll come out of this goal haze in a few days and think it’s skinny...

Another one to note down then right now might feel ridiculous given that he's just scored four goals, is backing Son in the shots market. It's not open yet for next weekend, and I'm talking long-term anyway.

The South Korean is incredibly reliable for getting shots away and usually underpriced to do so. The best thing about Son is he drives into the box from the left and rarely misses the target - there aren't many speculative efforts.

With Bale joining Kane in the Spurs attack he is only going to get more space to fire on goal as the season progresses.

Trouble at Saints

Readers of my ante-post relegation preview will have seen that I was tempted to throw Southampton in there with Fulham and West Brom, who I consider to be doomed. Unfortunately for Saints fans, there’s been little on offer so far for them to be encouraged.

While they played well in spells against both Crystal Palace and Spurs, each match showed deep seated flaws that you would characterise a relegation-threatened team with.

In defeat at Palace, Southampton lacked creativity and eventually just ran out of ideas to lose 1-0. During that match, Roy Hodgson’s side exposed them on the counter attack and should have scored more; Jose Mourinho’s team weren’t so wasteful on Sunday.

While Saints could be forgiven for thinking that things may have turned out differently had they survived an extra minute and therefore led 1-0 at half-time, the way they crumbled should in fact be a major cause for concern.

Yes, Spurs scored five goals, but like Palace they missed a fair few chances.

In tipping them as the outside bet to make an unlikely slide towards the drop part of my reasoning was that any team who can lose a match 9-0 at home must be a relegation candidate. Southampton supporters hate that embarrassing beating by Leicester being brought up, but there were echoes of it in their loss to Tottenham.

Ralph Hasenhuttl said post-match that he needs new players, and I’d have to agree with him.

Southampton can still be backed at 10/1 for the drop, which personally I think is a big price considering how short half the teams in the league are.

Why that price hasn't shortened after defeats by Palace and Brentford (in the Carabao Cup) and a thrashing against Tottenham I do not know.

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