James Cantrill picks out six stats to include in a BuildABet for Newcastle v Manchester United and recommends a fourfold priced up at 11/1.
- Newcastle to win
- Alexander Isak 3+ shots
- Aaron Wan-Bissaka 3+ tackles
- Bruno Guimaraes 3+ tackles
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What does the Infogol expected goals (xG) model predict?
- Predicted % chance: Newcastle 48% | Draw 24% | Man Utd 28%
- Over/Under 2.5 Goals: Over 60% | Under 40%
- Both Teams to Score (BTTS): Yes 61% | No 39%
Newcastle to win
When these sides met in the Carabao Cup final at the end of February, Nick Pope was unavailable for Newcastle. The shot stopper has played a pivotal role in the Magpies over performing their xGA (28.97) by 10 goals.
Manchester United will be without lynchpin Casemiro here due to suspension. Without him, Erik ten Hag's side look a lot less organised, and this is reflected by the data.
Newcastle have only lost one Premier League game at St James' Park all season. These two bits of team news certainly swing the match in their favour.
Alexander Isak 3+ shots
The Red Devils will be all to familiar with the threat of Alexander Isak, who was menacing when these sides last.
In the two games before the international break he found the net three times and racked up nine shots in the process, hitting the line in each.
Aaron Wan-Bissaka 3+ tackles
Aaron Wan-Bissaka has averaged 1.9 tackles per game domestically this season and should complete a fair few in Tyneside opposing Allan Saint-Maximin.
Newcastle's winger has been dispossessed 1.4 times per game and has drawn 13 in his last five league starts.
Bruno Guimaraes 3+ tackles
Only Joelinton has averaged more tackles (2.5) then Bruno Guimaraes (2.3) for Newcastle this campaign.
The Brazilian midfielder has hit this line of three in eight of his league starts, he also completed three tackles when the sides last met.
Fred to be shown a card
Without Casemiro, compatriot Fred will have to pick up the slack with the defensive output.
He already has 10 cards to his name this campaign, picking up five domestically, despite only starting 10 games, he was also booked when this sides last met.
Bruno Fernandes 3+ shots
Bruno Fernandes has averaged 2.2 shots per game in the league this season, hitting three or more on nine occasions.
Newcastle concede an average 10.3 per game but Man Utd have racked up 29 across two games against Newcastle.
Odds correct at 1530 BST (31/03/23)
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