Premier League review: Revitalised Ramsdale; Nuno sacked; Managers under pressure
Liam Kelly reviews the Premier League action from a data perspective, highlighting points of interest after the latest round of matches.
The aim of this weekly column is to provide standout stats from each round of fixtures, to use underlying numbers to identify recent trends, and to inform punters with tools to improve their betting on the Premier League.
Revitalised Ramsdale
Arsenal opened up the Premier League gameweek by continuing their upward curve, beating Leicester 2-0 at the King Power to remain unbeaten since losing their first three matches of the campaign.
Coincidence or not, the turnaround has synced up with Aaron Ramsdale's inclusion in the starting line-up, and the Gunners goalkeeper was the star of the show on Saturday afternoon, making the save of the season in another outstanding performance.
Not known as a great shot-stopper in his time with Bournemouth and Sheffield United, Ramsdale is now excelling in what is thought of as the best metric available for measuring such events — post-shot expected goals (PSxG) minus goals allowed.
Per FBref.com, only Chelsea's Edouard Mendy (+2.4 PSxG) holds a better differential than Ramsdale (+2.2 PSxG), who has played far fewer minutes.
- Post-shot expected goals (PSxG) is measured by information from the point the shot has been taken up until the shot were to pass the goalkeeper; a metric that is expected goals based on how likely a goalkeeper is to save a shot.
His distribution is of obvious interest to Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta, but if Ramsdale continues in the same manner as a shot-stopper, he will be one of the best at his position in the league.
Ramsdale has swiftly become a big part in the foundations being built by Arteta at Arsenal, settling the managerial matter at the club, which is more than can be said for others...
Mmm num ba de / Dum bum ba be / Doo buh dum ba beh beh
Pressure
These are the days. It never rains but it pours for a Premier League manager, a staggering number of which are either gone or under pressure only 10 games into the 2021/22 season.
Indeed, it was the theme of Halloween weekend.
Nuno Espírito Santo won or lost 'El Sackico' depending on which way you look at it, removed from his post just four months in on Monday morning after Tottenham's nightmarish 3-0 defeat to Manchester United.
It's extremely difficult to disagree with the decision, too. Tottenham have been an abomination going forward considering the talent at hand, averaging a meagre 1.14 expected goals for (xGF) per game over the course of the season thus far, metrics that are almost relegation-worthy.
Nine total goals in 10 matches from those underlying numbers, which includes a penalty and an own goal, is simply unacceptable. Spurs have quickly — and correctly — moved on.
Other clubs are sat on a fence, but it don't work.
Having spent his fair share of time under pressure recently, through luck or judgement, Ole Gunnar Solskjær played 'Mischief Night' to absolute perfection, beating Spurs badly enough that they look set to appoint the biggest threat to his own job — Antonio Conte. Solskjær is still on the hook, though.
As is Aston Villa manager Dean Smith. They sit 16th in the table, just three points above the relegation zone with data similar to Spurs' struggles from an attacking perspective, averaging 1.18 xGF per game despite spending a lot of money in the summer.
🗣"Players win football games not systems."
— Football Daily (@footballdaily) October 31, 2021
Dean Smith discusses how Aston Villa operates best pic.twitter.com/d0AZrCR8GM
His claim before Sunday's 4-1 defeat to West Ham that "players win football games, not systems" was a bewildering one that only undermines his own position — a position that might be untenable post-Jack Grealish.
Daniel Farke's obvious issues at Norwich were covered in last week's column, but another defeat only adds to his troubles, making the hot seat a rather crowded place at the moment, all clamouring for one more chance.
Like Nuno, is this their last dance?
After all, pressure on people, people on streets is becoming more and more prevalent in management at the top of the modern game.
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