Free football betting tips: Premier League Punting Pointers for matchday eight

Under 3.5 goals: Back the Blades

This is a development of a thread from the past couple of columns.

For three successive weekends we have seen a return to a more expected level of goals. Matchday six, when every game involved under 3.5, has been sandwiched by two run-of-the-mill rounds of fixtures, each containing a couple of high-scoring encounters.

In total, 24 of the past 30 matches have involved under 3.5 goals, and 18 of the past 20.

I hate to be a killjoy, but we're getting back to normal. To balance off my decidedly dull disposition, I'll point you in the direction of a weekend accumulator to keep things upbeat. A quick search of the prices for backing under 3.5 goals in every fixture this weekend and you're looking at between 25 and 40/1.

For something fractionally more scientific than speculative, successful a fortnight ago and a narrow loser last weekend, it has to be worth a small stakes punt.

Going off-piste for a moment, and I won't labour on it as Gareth Jones gave some great detail in PL: Talking Points, is Chelsea's new found ability to keep clean sheets.

Despite keeping four in a row, they are odds-against across the board to do so against Sheffield United - the Premier League's lowest scorers with just three goals from seven matches. For a fixture the Blues are such a turn-off in at 4/11, their win to nil price of 11/8 offers astonishingly good value.

But while Frank Lampard's side have learned how to keep their opponents out only very recently, it's something the Blades are a dab hand at.

Chris Wilder's second-from-bottom team have one of the best defensive records in the top flight, and when it comes to staying in the contest they're remarkably consistent.

Since Sheffield United became a Premier League side just three of their 50 matches in all competitions have involved over 3.5 goals, and it's yet to happen in 2020/21.

Chelsea/under 3.5 goals at 5/4 really shouldn't be sniffed at.

Chelsea take their time

Sticking with the Blues for a moment, and the attention that's been given to their improved defensive displays makes it easy to overlook another trait that they've developed in 2020/21.

The increased potency of Lampard's team in the second half of games is marked, with 19 of their 27 goals (70%) in all competitions coming after the break - it's 12 from 16 (75%) in the league.

Across the board you can back Chelsea at evens or better to score more goals in the second period against Sheffield United, which is an absolute no brainer at the moment.

For them to score over 1.5 goals after the break is available at 2/1.

Firing full-backs extra

Yes this is a regurgitated title, sorry.

Last week I went into some detail about Premier League full-backs/wing-backs now thinking they're [insert generic striker name here]. Well a few of them did pretty good Alan Shearer impressions at the weekend.

Half the fixtures had a full-back/wing-back on the scoresheet: Rayan Ait Nouri (Wolves), Kyle Walker (Man City), Tariq Lamptey (Brighton), Ola Aina (Fulham) and Stuart Dallas (Leeds).

In fact it was a good weekend all round for the defenders, with eight goals notched by them in total.

But all three of the centre-backs who found the net - Kurt Zouma, Jannik Vestergaard and Tyrone Mings - were all single digit prices having already been on the scoresheet this season.

Central defenders are generally going to be shorter anyway because of their set-piece threat, but the full-back/wing-back option is often a big price.

Although his goal against Leicester was something of a fluke, Dallas had been threatening to score for weeks - his six shots on target is now the most among top-flight defenders this season, only one shy of a raft of prolific strikers. His nearest challengers are the aforementioned Zouma (5), Mings (4), Vestergaard and Walker (both 3).

There are too many to mention on two shots on target, but the one who really sticks out is Trent Alexander-Arnold. The Liverpool right-back's radar has been way off this season for some reason, as he's had 11 attempts in total.

Renowned for being a brilliant free-kick taker, it's surprising to see him going through such a lean spell of goalscoring with just one in 20 games for club and country.

With the champions heading to Manchester City for a Super Sunday clash that's sure to full of transitions, and with that fouls and free-kicks, you could do worse than to take Alexander-Arnold (each-way) as first goalscorer at 28/1 or 11/1 anytime.

The other name that springs out among the shot stats is his England team-mate Harry Maguire.

Again, the Manchester United captain has hit the target only twice this term, but he has had 10 shots in total - he and Alexander-Arnold are streaks ahead of the rest of the Premier League's defenders in that department.

Maguire has found the net once this term, but his prices for United's trip to Everton are exactly the same as Trent's.

From the handover

• Ben White: 3+ tackles

Ben White was recently moved from centre-back to central midfield by Brighton boss Graham Potter, and as Tom Carnduff wrote in this column last week, it's had a profound effect when it comes to tackles. So far the markets haven't adjusted, but surely they will soon.

Since his change in position, White has made four tackles against both Crystal Palace and West Brom, and six against Tottenham - he only managed five in total across his four previous matches. His price ahead of that most recent outing against Spurs had 5/4 to make 3+ tackles and 3/1 to make 4+ tackles.

While ever he isn't odds-on to make three tackles per game, we should be gobbling it up. Even at a shade below evens I'd probably still take it.

Brighton face Burnley on Friday night. The Clarets are highly likely to sit deep and allow Albion to dominate the ball, reducing the likelihood of a high White tackle count, but it remains a smart play if the price is right.

The former Leeds United loanee still made four against Palace, a game in which Roy Hodgson's team had just 34% possession and failed to have a single shot in open play. It doesn't get more dominant than that.

• Wolves: Under 2.5 total goals and HT 0-0

Wolves quickly blew Crystal Palace away on Friday, so there was no fourth successive game where both these landed; never doubt their commitment to under 2.5 goals, though. Nuno's men raced 2-0 up within half-an-hour, and it stayed that way.

Their third place finish, on 63%, in the 2019/20 under 2.5 table belies just how consistent the Old Gold have been this calendar year - 18 of their last 21 matches in all competitions have seen fewer than three goals.

When it comes to the half-time punt, one fixture isn't enough to cast it aside should the odds and opponent combine to provide value. Eight of Wolves final 13 matches last season had goalless opening halves, with four of the five 'losers' seeing the deadlock broken after the 41st minute.

This weekend's trip to Leicester is a tough one to call given the Foxes' ability to switch between rope-a-dope counter attack, and fluid, possession-based attacking football. At 8/10 on the under 2.5 and 13/8 for half-time 0-0, I think we sit it out.

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