Football betting tips: Premier League
1.5pts Liverpool 6+ corners at 11/8 (Sky Bet)
Back our suggested BuildABet @ 10/1
Conor Bradley to win 1+ fouls
Mohamed Salah to win 1+ fouls
Phil Foden 1+ shots on target
Dominik Szoboszlai 1+ shots on target
A game that won't definitively decide the title race, but one in which the result provides a significant boost to the team that comes out on top.
Liverpool are first in the Premier League table - just a single point ahead of City. A home win leaves Pep Guardiola's side requiring a two-game swing at some stage across the last ten - that can happen, but it would put it in the Reds' hands if it isn't that way already.
The Anfield record against Manchester City is exceptional. Liverpool have only lost one of their last 20 home league games against them. It's a venue that Guardiola hasn't been able to conquer on a regular basis.
Every meeting between these two sides is nothing short of thrilling. The leading figures in English football across the past few years know the importance of every single minute they face each other - one slip-up can prove more costly than any other.
It always feels brave making a prediction on a Liverpool/City encounter, but the home side may represent the value play here. A second Premier League title is in their sight - they won't want to miss this opportunity.
More of the same
The thing about Liverpool being such rare home outsiders is that the markets relating to them are, as you'd expect, pushed out in price.
One of those involves CORNERS, and you can get 6+ as big as 11/8 in this contest.
This has been a winning selection in each of their last seven games at Anfield, while they had six in the away draw at the Etihad in late November.
As you'd expect, this pick is often a good chunk of odds-on. Even with the much tougher level of opposition, it's a price worth getting involved with considering the consistent showings in home contests.
Get on the right side
The return of MOHAMED SALAH will be significant to Liverpool's chances of victory here.
The forward suffered injury on his return in mid-February, meaning that, combined with AFCON, he's only been able to feature in one of the Reds' last six in the league.
He's a handful for any opponent, making SALAH TO WIN 1+ FOULS an appealing multiple addition.
Salah's been fouled at least once in eight of ten league games at Anfield this season, with two in the last meeting between these sides.
Joining Salah on the right should be CONOR BRADLEY, with the young full-back a hit since his arrival into the team.
A good way to get him involved since replacing Trent Alexander-Arnold is to take him TO WIN 1+ FOULS, and the same applies again here.
He's been fouled at least once in four of five Premier League appearances, with a huge total of four in the home win over Chelsea and two in the recent trip to Nottingham Forest.
Take a shot
There are a couple of names of interest in the shots market for this contest.
Staying with the home side, and DOMINIK SZOBOSZLAI is now back to fitness, meaning he should be involved from the start. You often get odds-against on 1+ SHOTS ON TARGET.
He'll likely be back on set-piece duty in Alexander-Arnold's absence, but he sees more efforts on target in home games than he does away.
The midfielder averages the fourth-highest shots per game among Liverpool players - the usual front three of Luis Diaz, Darwin Nunez and Salah the only ones ahead of him.
On the City side of things, it's hard to look past PHIL FODEN 1+ SHOTS ON TARGET considering his recent form.
The winger has 18 goals and ten assists in all competitions this season, with two against United and the winner against Bournemouth in recent outings.
He also netted a hat-trick in the away win at Brentford. Across his last three in the league, Foden's returned a staggering 19 total shots.
The most recent meetings between the sides delivered four shots with three of those on target. It's a safer bet taking just one here though.
Some rare Haaland value...
This is a bet worth flagging considering the prices available. It's rare that you get even money or above on ERLING HAALAND TO SCORE ANYTIME.
City's front man has 29 goals in 32 games across all competitions this season, with an injury in January preventing him from adding to that tally.
Such is the level he performs at that this bet winning in 55% of 23/24 Premier League games can be seen as a slight disappointment compared with recent showings - it was 66% last season.
Games such as Liverpool away are the only times you're going to see this sort of price. It's worth making the most of it.
Team news
The returns of Nunez, Salah and Szoboszlai will come as a significant boost to Liverpool.
They are still without a number of players though. Alexander-Arnold, Alisson, Stefan Bajcetic, Diogo Jota, Ryan Gravenberch, Curtis Jones, Joel Matip and Thiago are all unavailable.
There's also now concerns surrounding both Joe Gomez and Ibrahima Konate after both were subbed off in the win at Sparta Prague - although Klopp has eased fears by saying both should be fit for the contest.
City's injury list is much shorter, with Jack Grealish the only name to definitely be out.
Changes are expected from the midweek Champions League victory over Copenhagen - Kevin De Bruyne, Foden and Bernardo Silva could be some of those to return.
Predicted line-ups
Liverpool XI: Kelleher; Bradley, Konate, van Dijk, Robertson; Endo, Mac Allister, Szoboszlai; Salah, Nunez, Diaz.
Man City XI: Ederson; Walker, Dias, Ake; Stones, Rodri; Foden, De Bruyne, Alvarez, Silva; Haaland.
Match facts
- Liverpool have only lost one of their last 20 home league games against Manchester City (W13 D6), a 1-4 defeat in February 2021. However, home and away they have enjoyed only one win in their last eight Premier League matches against the Citizens (D4 L3), a 1-0 victory in this exact fixture at Anfield last season.
- Just two of the last 30 Premier League matches between Liverpool and Manchester City have been won by the away side (16 home wins, 12 draws). Indeed, of the 54 fixtures to have been played 40+ times in the Premier League, Liverpool vs Manchester City has the lowest proportion won by the away team (11% - 6/53).
- Liverpool (22) and Manchester City (21) are the top two sides for points gained from losing positions in the Premier League this season. However, the side scoring first has only lost one of the last 19 league meetings between the two clubs (W13 D5 – excluding 0-0 draws), with that being the Reds’ 1-4 defeat at the Etihad Stadium last season.
- Since their 4-1 defeat against Man City at the Etihad last season, Liverpool have won more points (88), scored more goals (91) and lost fewer games (2) than any other Premier League side, while also keeping the joint-most clean sheets (13).
- Manchester City have won their last nine away matches in all competitions, scoring 25 goals across that run. There’ve only been six previous instances of a top-flight side winning 10+ away games in a row, and two of those have been Pep Guardiola’s City side (11 between May and November 2017 and 20 between December 2020 and May 2021).
- Substitutes have scored or assisted 22 goals in the Premier League this season for Liverpool (11 goals, 11 assists), with only Man City in 2011-12 (24) and Arsenal in 2009-10 (23) having more sub goal involvements in a season in the competition. A substitute has scored or assisted in their last four games, with five games in a row the Premier League record for a team having a sub score or assist, achieved by five teams previously.
- Manchester City are the only side yet to concede a Premier League goal when they’ve been losing in matches this season, scoring 10 goals while trailing. They’ve also had 75 more shots than their opponents when losing (99 for, 24 faced), the best differential of any side when behind, despite the fact they’ve trailed for the lowest percentage of minutes in games of any side in the division this season (13%).
- Liverpool have scored 10 Premier League goals in the 90th minute of matches this season, their joint-most in a single season (also 10 in 2008-09). Darwin Núñez’s goal at Nottingham Forest (98:37) was their latest goal in a Premier League match since Dirk Kuyt scored in the 102nd minute vs Arsenal in April 2011.
- Mohamed Salah has been directly involved in 17 goals in 19 appearances for Liverpool against Manchester City in all competitions, scoring 11 and assisting seven. It’s his highest number of goal involvements against any opponent for the Reds, while his 11 goals are the most any player has scored against sides managed by Pep Guardiola in the Spaniard’s top-flight managerial career.
- Phil Foden has been directly involved in 18 Premier League goals this season (11 goals, 7 assists), his most in a single campaign for Manchester City. Foden also ranks in the top five for each of chances created in open play (50), shots attempted (83) and shots on target (34) in the Premier League this season.
Odds correct 1020 GMT (08/03/24)
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