Swansea v Sheffield United tips: Championship best bets and preview
After beginning the Championship season with 10/3 and 23/10 winners last weekend, Michael Beardmore picks out his best bets for Swansea v Sheffield United.
Football betting tips: Swansea v Sheffield United
1pt Sander Berge to be shown a card at 6/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Ryan Bennett and George Baldock each to be shown a card at 16/1 (Sky Bet)
After losing their season openers, Swansea and Sheffield United will both be keen to get on the board in the Sky Bet Championship - but, importantly, each will be desperate not to begin with back-to-back defeats.
Both clubs are entering new eras under Russell Martin and Slavisa Jokanovic respectively - and the big challenge for each new boss is how to get their sides firing up front.
Swansea reached last season's play-off final thanks mainly to their defence - they scored the fewest goals among the top six and had the top half's second lowest Expected Goals For (xGF) tally. Losing 16-goal Andre Ayew in the summer has not helped.
Sheffield United finished bottom of the Premier League for both goals scored and xG last term - and have netted just once in their first two fixtures in league and cup, lacking a cutting edge in their opening-day defeat by Birmingham City.
Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Saturday
TV channel: Sky Sports Football
Swansea 2/1 | Draw 21/10 | Sheff Utd 29/20
It all suggests a low-scoring affair at the Liberty Stadium on Saturday evening but the prices are skinny - 8/13 generally on Under 2.5 Goals and just 2/1 on Under 1.5 Goals.
The value is not there, especially if the Swans continue to play it out from the back as poorly as they did in their defeat by Blackburn, in which they gifted Rovers a host of chances and were fortunate to not lose much heavier than 2-1.
The Blades should get chances but whether they put them away is a different matter - you can get 6/1 on former Swansea loanee Rhian Brewster opening the scoring against his old side or 15/2 on David McGoldrick.
If you want a first scorer, I'd be heading with either, or both, of those. But with card-happy referee Keith Stroud in charge in south Wales, I think there's more value to be found in the booking markets than with scorers or the tough-to-call outright.
Only two officials dished out more cards in the second tier than the 89 brandished by Stroud and he added 15 more cautions and a red in four League One and Two games for good measure.
He showed five yellows in Fulham v Middlesbrough on Sunday. Mr Stroud does like a card.
Perhaps understandably, there are some low prices in the card markets as a result but SANDER BERGE TO BE SHOWN A CARD with bet365 at 6/1 stands out.
The Norway international was booked four times in 15 Premier League appearances last season and that price looks too high for a box-to-box midfielder who likes a battle but, at 6ft 4in, can often get on the wrong end of decisions due to his size.
Given Stroud's propensity for multiple cautions - he handed out two or more cards in 30 out of 38 matches last term - it's worth a look at Sky Bet's 'Player Carded Accumulator' market.
There are many options but I'm plumping for two defenders who like a meaty challenge - Swansea's Ryan Bennett and Sheffield United's George Baldock.
Bennett was booked eight times in 28 Swans appearances last term, while Baldock was cautioned seven times in 32 games - combine them and you can get 16/1 on RYAN BENNETT AND GEORGE BALDOCK TO BOTH BE CARDED.
In a game where value is hard to find in the traditional markets, it's worth backing Stroud to make the biggest impact with his notebook.
Swansea v Sheff Utd best bets and score prediction
- Sander Berge to be shown a card at 6/1 (bet365)
- Ryan Bennett and George Baldock each to be shown a card at 16/1 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Swansea 0-1 Sheff Utd (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
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