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Free betting tips and preview: Premier League final day of the season

Last Updated May 13 2018, 14:00Football
Harry Kane celebrates
Harry Kane celebrates

Harry Kane, Jamie Vardy and Roberto Firmino are all backed in our preview of this season's final round of Premier League matches.

Sunday's Premier League recommended bets

1pt over 4.5 goals in Crystal Palace v West Brom at 5/1

2pts Roberto Firmino to score anytime in Liverpool v Brighton at 23/20

1pt Harry Kane and Jamie Vardy both to score in Tottenham v Leicester at 7/2

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record


All matches start at 1500 BST

Burnley v AFC Bournemouth

Burnley are one of this season's success stories in the Premier League and I'm sure they can end the campaign in style with a win against Bournemouth.

The Clarets don't have as long as the other top-flight clubs to rest after this match. They are set to enter the Europa League second qualifying round on July 19 thanks to their impressive seventh-placed finish.

I don't think it will be as good again for Burnley in 12 months so the Turf Moor faithful should really take this chance to celebrate.

Sean Dyche's side haven't lost to a side outside the top six on their own turf throughout the campaign.

Bournemouth don't look capable of ending that record. They are on a five-match winless run and in their previous 11 games, they've only beaten relegated pair Swansea and West Brom.

Joshua King is one Cherries player to watch. He's netted three of his team's last five goals and 13/4 to score anytime is worth some consideration, while he's also tempting to be the first Bournemouth goalscorer.

Burnley can get over the line for victory and I reckon this will make it eight out of their previous nine victories that are collected by a one-goal winning margin.

Score prediction: Burnley 2-1 Bournemouth (Sky Bet's odds: 8/1) (Nick Hext)

Best bet: Burnley to beat Bournemouth by one goal at 31/10

Alternative: Joshua King to score anytime at 13/4

Crystal Palace v West Bromwich Albion

West Brom's chances of completing the greatest of escapes has come to a halt just before the final act.

Southampton's 1-0 win at Swansea in midweek ended the Baggies' hopes of taking their survival bid down to the final day of the season, a 1-0 victory at home to Tottenham last weekend having kept them in the hunt.

Darren Moore hasn't lost a game (three wins and two draws) since taking temporary charge of West Brom following Alan Pardew's sacking. He couldn't have done any more to state his case for keeping the role on a full-time basis.

Crystal Palace were the early favourites to drop down to the Sky Bet Championship following a run of seven defeats in a row to start the campaign.

Roy Hodgson has worked wonders since taking charge of the Eagles and victory could take his side to a finish in the top half. That would be remarkable given the chaos he inherited at Selhurst Park.

Palace, like West Brom, are on a strong run of results as they look to extend their unbeaten run to six matches.

I have to side with Hodgson's men and I like the look of plenty of goals in this contest.

Over 4.5 goals to be scored is to my liking at 5/1. That bet was a winner as Palace won 5-0 against Leicester in their last outing at Selhurst Park and three of their previous four home games have all come in at above this mark.

Score prediction: Crystal Palace 3-2 West Brom (Sky Bet's odds: 25/1) (Nick Hext)

Best bet: Over 4.5 goals at 5/1

Alternative: Both teams to score at 3/4

Huddersfield Town v Arsenal

Arsene Wenger's 22-year managerial reign at Arsenal comes to an end in West Yorkshire on Sunday as the Gunners take on Huddersfield Town.

There's little room for sentiment though, Arsenal have simply not been good enough away from home this season and Huddersfield's 5/1 price is more than tempting.

Both teams have little to play for here apart from the Gunners wanting to send off Wenger in the best possible way.

The Terriers guaranteed Premier League survival with a 1-1 draw against Chelsea at Stamford Bridge in midweek and whilst they may have spent the night partying, they will still want to end their own remarkable season on a high.

Whilst Huddersfield have struggled in recent weeks, Arsenal have failed to pick up a single point away from the Emirates Stadium in 2018, which is why I'm leaning towards the hosts getting victory.

They may have beaten Burnley 5-0 in Wenger's final home game, but they followed that up with a 3-1 away defeat at Leicester City in midweek, playing a large part of the game with ten men.

Given recent track records, 5/1 on Huddersfield seems too big of a price for me.

Forward Laurent Depoitre was the man who scored the goal to keep Town in the top flight, and he's worth looking at to strike again here.

Laurent Depoitre and Huddersfield celebrate
Laurent Depoitre and Huddersfield celebrate

He may have only scored six goals this season, but Depoitre seems to enjoy playing the top teams as he has scored against Manchester United and Chelsea.

The Belgian will want to finish the season on a high ahead of potential World Cup involvement, having been called up to the squad for previous friendlies this season. The 12/5 to score anytime looks a good price.

Score prediction: Huddersfield Town 2-1 Arsenal (Sky Bet's odds: 16/1) (Tom Carnduff)

Best bet: Huddersfield to beat Arsenal at 5/1

Alternative: Laurent Depoitre to score anytime at 12/5

Liverpool v Brighton & Hove Albion (Sky Sports Main Event)

Liverpool will secure Champions League football for another season if they beat Brighton on Sunday and they should have no issue in doing just that.

Jurgen Klopp's men are 1/7 favourites for the clash and should be at full strength with the Champions League final still a couple of weeks away.

They're an incredibly short price, with the Reds and over 2.5 goals at 4/7.

For me, there is value in backing goa scorers and Roberto Firmino looks very tempting at 23/20 to net anytime against Brighton.

The Brazil forward has 27 goals in all competitions this season and is more than capable of adding to that tally here.

There's 11/2 also available on him to score a brace, which is more than possibility with the circumstances and permutations surrounding this game.

Liverpool won't want to risk having to beat Real Madrid to seal Champions League football next season and the cards are firmly in their hands here.

The trio of Sadio Mane, Mohamed Salah and Firmino could well start and they have been magical this season, terrorising the best defences.

In fairness to Brighton, they have had a terrific debut season in the Premier League and have shown that they are capable of finding the net against the best teams.

Both teams to score is available at 15/13, which could also be a decent bet with that price.

Score prediction: Liverpool 3-1 Brighton (Sky Bet's odds: 9/1) (Tom Carnduff)

Best bet: Roberto Firmino to score anytime at 23/20

Alternative: Roberto Firmino to score two or more goals at 11/2

Manchester United v Watford

Old Trafford hosts Manchester United's final game of the season with very little on offer for either side to play for.

Jose Mourinho's men have already wrapped up second place in the Premier League, although Watford could break into the top ten if they pick something up.

For me, I'm be looking at this to be a game with little going on, that's why under 2.5 goals is very appealing value at 8/5.

United's last four home games against teams outside the top four have seen two or fewer goals, whilst seven of Watford's last eight away have seen the same amount.

I'll still back Manchester United to win the game though, and having them to wrap up the points with under 2.5 goals in the game gives an interesting price of 10/3.

Watford's away form has been dismal this season and they haven't won an away game since a 3-0 victory over Newcastle at the end of November.

In the 11 away games since then, Watford have picked up just a single point.

On the contrast, Manchester United's home form sees them with nine wins in the last eleven.

Backing a low-scoring home victory would be my route to follow for this one.

Score prediction: Manchester United 2-0 Watford (Sky Bet's odds: 6/1) (Tom Carnduff)

Best bet: Under 2.5 goals at 8/5

Alternative: Manchester United to win and under 2.5 goals at 10/3

Newcastle United v Chelsea (Sky Sports Premier League)

It could well be Antonio Conte's last game as Chelsea manager on Sunday as the Blues travel north to face Newcastle United.

Rafa Benitez's Magpies have enjoyed a great season that sees them sitting in mid-table, but find themselves on a tough run having lost their last four games.

On the other hand, Chelsea are unbeaten in their last seven, winning five consecutive games on that run. That includes wins over top seven opponents in Burnley and Liverpool.

They've managed to snap poor away form that saw them lose five consecutive games on the road and they head here as 8/13 favourites.

Alvaro Morata is Chelsea's main man and has 15 goals for the club this season. He's struggled in recent weeks but will be eager to end the season on a high.

The Spaniard is 11/8 to strike anytime, but I'm looking at the 5/1 price for him to score a header against Newcastle.

He leads the Premier League in headed goals this season with seven, showing his preference to having balls in the air.

For me, if he is going to score there's a good chance that it will come from a header, making that 5/1 price seem decent value.

Score prediction: Newcastle 1-2 Chelsea (Sky Bet's odds: 7/1) (Tom Carnduff)

Best bet: Alvaro Morata to score a header at 5/1

Alternative: Chelsea to win and over 2.5 goals in the match at 7/5

Southampton v Manchester City (Sky Sports Mix)

With survival virtually in the bag, all Southampton must do is stop Manchester City scoring a mountain of goals at St Mary’s.

If they can match their effort in the return match at the Etihad in November, they will be pleased. The Saints were heading for a hard-fought draw before Raheem Sterling netted a winner in the sixth minute of stoppage time.

Manchester City lift the 2017/18 Premier League trophy

Mark Hughes has tightened the ship since coming into the club, losing just one of their last five, but they welcome a City side who have collected 47 points from a possible 57 on the road this term.

Pep Guardiola’s champions could be the first title-winning side to reach a century of points in a Premier League season with a victory in this match, and it is hard to see any other outcome.

Even with a weakened side, 9/20 looks a generous price for an away victory, while Man City – barring the goalless draw with Huddersfield last week – have had a tendency to score two or more against teams outside the top six, so a win with a -1-goal handicap is a tempting 23/20.

City to win with over 1.5 total goals can be backed at 8/13 in places and that is recommended, while a good alternative is for 18-goal Raheem Sterling to end the season on a high, 7/5 in a score-and-win double.

Score prediction: Southampton 0-2 Man City (Sky Bet's odds: 7/1) (George Pitts)

Best bet: Man City to win and over 1.5 total goals at 8/13

Alternative: Raheem Sterling to score and Man City to win at 7/5

Swansea City v Stoke City

The importance of this match would have been so much more significant had Huddersfield failed to get a point at Chelsea on Wednesday.

The Terriers secured their survival with a 1-1 draw at Stamford Bridge, meaning only a 10-goal swing on Sunday will save the Swans from the drop.

Nothing is impossible though, especially when this Manchester City side are in the picture when they take on Southampton. They have scored five goals or more in a league match on five occasions this season, but Guardiola’s side are already champions and could be forgiven for taking their foot off the gas.

Not only do City have to do them a favour, Swansea must end a nine-game winless run by scoring plenty to avoid the Premier League drop.

It all started so well for Carlos Carvalhal and now it appears he is going to leave the Liberty Stadium at the end of the season. It remains to be seen about Paul Lambert at Stoke, whose future is up in the air as the club's owners plan for life in the Sky Bet Championship.

He guided his side to a first win five days after being appointed at the Bet365 Stadium in January, but has since failed to win in 13 games and it ultimately cost the Potters their top-flight status.

While it is far more important match to the hosts, both teams have had a terrible second half of the season and this probably will not be a classic.

A draw here would probably be your best bet at 29/10, leaving Swansea to rue their vital loss v Southampton in midweek. Under 2.5 goals at 23/20 looks good value, while a nice 5/1 shot could be draw/draw in a half-time/full-time coupon.

Score prediction: Swansea 1-1 Stoke (Sky Bet's odds: 11/2) (George Pitts)

Best bet: Draw at 29/10

Alternative: Under 2.5 goals at 23/20

Tottenham Hotspur v Leicester City

There’s always a game on the last day which looks like it could be a dead rubber but it actually turns into an entertaining watch – and that is what I am expecting from this one at Wembley.

Mauricio Pochettino’s Spurs won in midweek to secure a top-four finish, meaning they finish the campaign as the best London club, while Leicester’s win over Arsenal means they will finish ninth at worst.

I have backed Harry Kane to score two or more in their last two home games – he unfortunately scored just once in both – but I still feel he has another couple left in him. He is 11/5 to open the scoring, 21/10 to net two or more.

Kane’s England strike partner Jamie Vardy, who netted a penalty in the Arsenal victory, has scored 11 goals against the ‘big six’ this season. You can back him and Kane both to get on the score sheet in my favourite bet from this match, priced at 7/2.

Jamie Vardy celebrates

With the expectation of an entertaining goal fest, Spurs to win and BTTS is also appealing at 31/20, on what could be Claude Puel’s last game in charge of the Foxes after recent discontent.

Score prediction: Tottenham 3-1 Leicester (Sky Bet's odds: 9/1) (George Pitts)

Best bet: Harry Kane and Jamie Vardy both to score at 7/2

Alternative: Tottenham to win and BTTS at 31/20

West Ham United v Everton

A match which sees two managers with uncertain futures come up against their former clubs.

Four points from their last two games against Leicester and Man United means David Moyes has successfully steered West Ham clear of relegation and, with his contract expiring at the end of the season, he is due for talks with the club.

Sam Allardyce has another year left on his deal at Goodison Park and is happy with the job he has done since replacing Ronald Koeman and guiding the Toffees away from danger and into the top half.

Everton fans are not too convinced though, seeing his tactics as negative at times this term and it will be interesting to see where they go from here.

Sam Allardyce: The Everton manager is planning for next season at Goodison Park
Sam Allardyce: The Everton manager is planning for next season at Goodison Park

Everton have been better at home than they have away, conceding 33 and scoring just 15, and that is why I am backing West Ham to finish on a high at the London Stadium.

They have no pressure on this clash and will be able to play freely and really take the game to the Merseysiders. The Hammers to win with over 2.5 total goals is a tempting 13/5, with the hosts scoring in both halves available at a generous 23/10.

Score prediction: West Ham 2-1 Everton (Sky Bet's odds: 8/1) (George Pitts)

Best bet: West Ham to win with over 2.5 total goals at 13/5

Alternative: West Ham to score in both halves at 23/10


Follow Sporting Life on social media - find us on Facebook here or tweet @SportingLife

Preview posted at 1840 BST (11/05/18)

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